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I think it's likely that the Silver Line will be faster than the Washington Flyer bus for virtually all passengers at Dulles.

With eight stops between IAD and East Falls Church, my guess is that the ride to the Silver Line/Orange Line junction near West Falls Church will take between 5 and 10 minutes longer than the bus ride (assuming Virginia continues the strict speed-limit enforcement on the Dulles Access Road that we see today -- I understand the buses keep strictly to the speed limit due to enforcement against them a few years ago).

Unless Silver Line headways are much less frequent than those elsewhere on Metrorail, however, the difference in rolling time between bus and train will be eclipsed for most riders by the difference between the Metro headways and the 30-minute bus headways. (If you arrive at the midpoint between buses and train headways are 8 minutes, you'll make up the ground against the bus even if you just miss a Metro).

But the more important comparison is the time to an actual Metro destination, unless a passenger intends to terminate at West Falls Church. And for any Metro stop to the east, beginning with East Falls Church, the Silver Line has the advantage of not requiring a transfer, whereas Washington Flyer riders have to absorb both the bus headway *and* the Orange Line headway to end up on a train heading eastbound.

(And for those thinking that the bus has an advantage over the 200-yard underground walk from the terminal to the Silver Line station, remember that passengers transferring from the bus at West Falls Church also face a walk from the curbside to the train platform).

So I'd think that anyone willing to pay for the Washington Flyer bus service would be willing to pay an equal price for Silver Line service.

by Anon in Arl on Jul 20, 2011 4:46 pm • link • report