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It's not an "assumption." It's a conclusion that follows from the elimination of labor costs for human taxi drivers, lower insurance costs due to lower accident rates, lower energy costs due to more efficient routing and less congestion, and other money-saving consequences of automated operation.

Bertie, if you're talking about what will happen in the far future with the adoption of technologies that don't even exist yet, there is nothing this can be BUT an assumption.

Also, you can't really have it both ways. Either congestion will go down, or people will abandon other forms of transit. But if people abandon other forms of transit, I think the best you can hope for is that congestion remains the same. There are only so many cars you can get into New York City at rush hour - robot or otherwise. That's physics.

For a single-occupant self-driving electric vehicle, Brad Templeton estimates the average total cost per mile will be less than 10 cents.

Well, since we're talking about things that don't exist - and that I suspect are far more complicated than you understand - what does Templeton think the price of Leprechaun chauffered unicorns is per mile?

But the exact figure doesn't really matter.

Oh but it does. A 1 cent per mile savings will be vastly different than 10 cents.

Also, you're talking about a technology that is at least 70 years away, if not farther. But you act as though there will no comporable changes in transit technology that will bring down prices there.

Why not? What evidence is this claim based on?

My own best guess. Same place your evidence comes from. Unless you have some.

And the savings will still be offset by the higher price of the cars.

Another evidence-free claim. The technology required for autonomous operation is not very expensive.

Well how much does it all cost? It's not free, right? So those costs will offest the gains. You made my point for me. I did not claim that they will entirely offset the costs. I'm not good at guessing the price or benefits of non-existent technology. But clearly all this added hardward will cost more.

Google's fleet of prototype self-driving cars has driven almost 200,000 miles in California and Nevada,

No such thing. Those aren't self-driving cars - not really. They mostly drive themselves. But you can't get out and let it go park itself. The driver has to be there to take over in some situations.

Self-driving cars will reduce travel times by reducing, and eventually eliminating, congestion.

What evidence is this claim based on?

by David C on Dec 8, 2011 11:28 pm • link • report

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