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To be fair to the Cafritz site, one could argue that it is TOD 2.0 in terms of the Purple Line. I argue that PG needs to seize on the coming of the Purple Line to reboot their land use planning around transit connectivity.

About the other stuff...

1. there has been a sector plan for TOD at West Hyattsville for more than 5 years (at least 8 years, maybe close to 10 by now). Development won't happen there until Fort Totten and PG Plaza are built out. In the context of other sites, it's still a marginal location, although with the Hamilton business district there now, if I had to choose, I'd rather live there than in Ft. Totten, where there are minimal amenities (right now) although you can walk to the Giant supermarket.

2. Plans for intensification around PG Plaza have been occuring since the early 1960s, because the developer knew that there would be a subway line there. It just took three decades to happen.
- http://www.universitytowncenter.net/news/OnSiteSummer2007.pdf

3. As much as we as planners or advocates would like developers to do things our way, that's not how market capitalism works. Cafritz has the land they have and they want to develop it. They don't want to trade it for someplace else. And that typifies other developers as well.

4. And neither do cities. Hyattsville has an aggressive annexation program to get taxable land, they love the intensification at PG Plaza for obvious reasons. I can't see why UP, Riverdale, RP, and other jurisdictions would want to give up their opportunities in favor of Hyattsville, without property tax harmonization.

5. Anyway, Mt. Rainier could annex the W. Hyattsville area, my understanding is that the land in question isn't formally within Hyattsville (yet) but the County. And the shopping center on Queens Chapel and the one behind it offer incredible intensification opportunity, as W. Hyattsville re/develops. One is in Mt. Rainier for sure, the other might be.

6. Bradly, with regard to your point about:

Developing at Largo (and many other Metro station areas, including West Hyattsville and PG Plaza) makes sense now, not in 10-20 years.

This demonstrates that you are not yet attuned to how the market works. Between DC, MoCo and PG, PG is the weakest real estate market, with the most foreclosures, and massive drops in property values, even in the "nice" areas along Rte. 1. (Houses in Mt. Rainier have lost 50% to 100% of their value.) Even in non-A locations, it's very hard to do high quality mixed use development in DC that isn't at subway stations (e.g., the debacle with the Walmart at the 5900 block of Georgia Avenue, W7--Skyland, St. E's, W8--Anacostia, etc.).

College Park is a bit immune from this general trend because its housing submarket is driven by the college market for housing for UMD.

But mostly, developers won't be choosing to do speculative development in most of PG, including at Metro stations without superlative station plans and great incentive packages anytime soon.

Konterra and National Harbor are different, because they have different drivers, and in reality will probably soak up and deflect all the development energy there is right now, away from transit sites.

by Richard Layman on Feb 1, 2012 7:15 am • link • report