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The Loudoun equation is missing one important variable -- the cost of the road and non-rail transit (bus) improvements that will be needed to support dense development at the two Loudoun stations. Those costs should be forecasted before the supervisors vote on rail.

For a point of reference, Fairfax County staff informed the Planning Commission in January 2012 that the 2051 costs for the road and non-rail costs for Tysons was $5.46 billion, including inflation, but excluding interest on bonds. Note those costs did not include any estimates for the two new rail lines (unspecified) that would be needed to permit Tysons to grow beyond 84 million square feet.

Also, Fairfax County DOT is conducting three new traffic studies to measure the effect of full buildout of Tysons to what is permited by the Comp Plan. The Comp Plan allowed more density than was studied by FC DOT in connection with its December 2009 527 Traffic Impact Analysis submitted to VDOT. The Agency has said the infrastructure costs for the period to 2030 will be higher than what has been forecast.

Loudoun County should use Fairfax County's work as a point of reference to measure the reasonableness of Loudoun's estimates.

by tmtfairfax on Jun 25, 2012 12:58 pm • link • report

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