Metro's "Worst Performing" bus lines

Transit

by Michael Perkins • November 11, 2008 11:59 am

Metro produces an annual bus productivity report. Here's 2007's (large Excel file). Part of that report highlights the "Worst Performing" lines, ones that don't meet the following criteria:

At least 300 passengers per day
At least 1.3 passengers per revenue mile
At least 10 passengers per revenue trip
Less than $4.80 subsidy per passenger
At least 12.4% of costs paid by passengers

Photo by Mr. T in DC on Flickr.

Hopefully once the tracking technology is fully functional, WMATA will include a 6th criterion, on-time performance.

Which are Metro's "Worst Performing" bus lines?

One missed all five criteria:

24T: Heading up the pack is route 24T. This weekday rush-hour only service makes 11 round trips per day between the East Falls Church metro station and the Tyson's Westpark Transit Station. It takes about 27 minutes to make the one-way journey of 8 miles. From the look of the schedule, two buses are dedicated to this route, at a subsidy cost of around $300,000 in 2007. Each of the trips averages less than 10 passengers, and fares only pay for 11.6% of service costs. With the exception of bus service along Westmoreland Street in Arlington and Fairfax counties, and Lewinsville Road in Fairfax, service along the route might be provided by other bus routes. Some of this alternate service is not really a good substitute, but for service between the transit station and the Metro, Fairfax County operates two bus lines, the 425 and the 427, from West Falls Church station. The alternate bus lines are shorter, more frequent, and operate along a limited-access highway so it's a lot faster (9 minutes).

Missed four out of five:

98: Chairman Graham mentioned this one specifically at the parking hearing when the topic of transit to Adams Morgan came up. He's also proposed replacing it with limited-stop circulator service, which would be faster and funded by the District instead of WMATA. This line is intended to shuttle folks from the Metro stations at U Street and Woodley Park to the hot night spots on U Street and Adams Morgan. It runs ~~all day~~ in the evening and late into the night (3am on Friday and Saturday), has a cheap 25 cent fare, and runs pretty frequently (every 10-13 minutes from 6ampm to midnight weekdays and Sunday, and all the Friday and Saturday hours too). I think this one is a transit rider's dream in terms of service (cheap fares and frequent, regular service at all hours), but it doesn't meet Metro's effectiveness criteria at a subsidy cost of $730,000 per year and $6.80 per passenger. It failed all the criteria except #2 above, and got pretty close to meeting #1. Its low fare probably is one of the reasons it has one of the lowest cost recovery of all, at 9.5%.
E6: I don't know much about this line. It runs weekdays between Friendship Heights Metro and Rock Creek Park, serving the Knollwood Retirement Home. This one just barely met #1 above, but only had half the criteria's passengers per trip, at 4.8. Each of those passengers costs a subsidy of almost $6.00, and fares pay for only 10.6% of costs.

Missed three out of five: This category has too many for individual write-ups, so I'll just list them.

15K/L (missed 2, 4 and 5 above)
20F/W/X (2, 4 and 5)
17A/B/F/M (2, 3, and 4)
N8 (2, 4 and 5)
18E/F (1, 2, and 4)
3T (2, 4 and 5)
C7/9 (2, 4 and 5)

Now, I can't discuss WMATA's worst performing bus lines without discussing the best. So here are the "winners" in each of the five criteria (ignoring special school service lines that WMATA isn't allowed to operate any more):

For passengers per day, it's the 30/32/34/35/36 combination, at 15,500. This line had a big customer experience enhancement last year (some of the line numbers have changed in 2008 - thanks kk), including the addition of limited-stop "express" service, so I'm looking forward to getting new data to see how much better it's gotten. This bus line grouping is the way WMATA reports the data. If the 70/71 and 79 were all combined, that one would be higher, at 16,830. The X1 and X3 are sister lines to the X2 but they don't bring up the X2 enough to take the top spot here (total of 14,071). The 90s lines don't really combine (96/97 don't follow the same route as 90/92/93). For the rest of the categories, I'm just going to report the highest based on WMATA's data since it would be hard for me to combine cost recoveries or passengers per revenue mile.

For passengers per revenue mile, it's the X2 at 10.3. This radial line connects the Minnesota Avenue metro station with downtown along one of DC's busiest main streets. The line is on the short list for being upgraded to streetcar service.

For passengers per trip, it's the C2/4 at 66. This cross-suburb line connects Twinbrook, Wheaton, the University of Maryland, and the Greenbelt metro/MARC station. It's a long line and it connects a lot of destinations to Metrorail, so it's not a surprise this one has a lot of passengers per trip. It ranks among the top lines in other criteria, too.

For subsidy per passenger, it's the X2 at 56 cents. Interestingly, even the best bus lines don't operate at a profit.

For cost recovery, it's the 11Y (an express route direct from Mt. Vernon to Farragut Square) at 56.3%. This line makes 6 morning northbound trips, and 6 evening southbound trips for a fare of $3.00. It's followed closely in the category by the X2 again at 55.7%.

From this performance, it looks like replacing the X2 line with a streetcar is a really good idea. We've obviously found a route that a lot of people can use. Streetcars travel faster (due to higher torque electric motors), have lower operating costs for high ridership lines, and can carry more passengers per vehicle, reducing the number of vehicles and operators needed to serve customers. They just need a route that has high ridership to justify the fixed investment. I think that investment is justified.

18 comments — Share	— tags: buses

Metro faces big budget gap even with a fare hike (Sep 10, 2009)
Do Fairfax's higher fare bus lines make a profit? (Sep 1, 2009)
Metro considering limited-stop 16th Street bus (Feb 11, 2009)
Metrobus performance 2008: Upgrade the X2, cut the 24T (Feb 4, 2009)
How do you evaluate Metrobus performance? (Dec 10, 2008)

Comments

I had no idea the C2/4 was so strong. I've ridden it before and never found it particularly crowded. But I don't ride it all that often, either.

This spreadsheet is fascinating. It's also interesting to me that the first thing I'm doing with it is looking at the bus lines I ride frequently and hoping they "win." (Q2 looks like it's second to the C2/4 in terms of passengers per trip on weekdays in Maryland...yeah, baby!) Thanks for posting this.

by Lindemann on Nov 11, 2008 3:19 pm

Saturday is the only day that the 98 bus operates during the day, other days it is evening to early morning only. It was convenient when I was trying to get between home on the Red Line and the Obama office near 8th and U, although I never figured out if the bus/Red Line combo was faster or slower than if I had used metrorail for the trip and changed trains at Gallery Place.

by Elizabeth on Nov 11, 2008 3:34 pm

damn, how i wish the 98 could continue down Florida to h street ne.

by sean on Nov 11, 2008 3:38 pm

I used to take the old E6 all the time when I was in highschool. I'd take metro from Grosvenor to Friendship, and then the E6 down Western Ave to Pinehurst Circle.

by SG on Nov 11, 2008 3:45 pm

My mistake, Elizabeth is right. I must have read the 98 schedule wrong. I did see a press release from June 2007 that cited the frequency increase from every 15 minutes to every 10 minutes. DC and the Adams Morgan Partnership paid $70,000 for the service upgrade.

http://www.wmata.com/about/met_news/PressReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1673

by Michael P on Nov 11, 2008 4:18 pm

The 98 is a fail all right. Whatever the schedule is supposed to be, the buses don't run to it, despite the route only being about 2 miles long. Most people who would ride it from Woodley Park to Adams-Morgan can walk much more quickly than waiting around for the 98 to show up.

by bunt on Nov 11, 2008 6:04 pm

The biggest problem with the 98 is that it takes people to the night life areas, which by definition are congested. So it gets stuck on 18th St. and then again on U St. In my experience it runs very well Sun - Thu nights and Saturday during the day. Of course, I am usually the only one on the bus at those times.

Better parking managment in Adams Morgan may help out somewhat (imagine how many of those cars are looking for a free spot), but I like the idea of going from Woodley to Columbia Heights to U St. (and on to H NE!)

by Matt L on Nov 11, 2008 6:58 pm

I take the E6 to visit relatives. One thing people enjoy about the neighborhood served only by the E6 is that while it's in the District geographically, It's also culturally in the orbit of both Bethesda and Silver Spring. Unfortunately, the only destination by bus is Friendship Heights, and it takes a long time to get there. All in all, no surprise that a bus that doesn't go where people want to go, doesn't carry a lot of people.

Maybe a joint venture with RideOn would work better.

by Am Turnip on Nov 11, 2008 8:53 pm

Just run the 90 and 92 to Woodley Park, instead of Ellington Bridge. Then you could cancel the 98, and riders would be better off (I reckon).

by bunt on Nov 11, 2008 9:27 pm

I also wondered why not take the 90/92 the extra half mile to Woodley. The 98 could be eliminated. Maybe logisitical and traffic issues.

Hopefully WMATA will include on-time perfomance as a metric next time.

by Tim on Nov 12, 2008 9:56 am

I think that Metro really needs to look into eliminating stops, especially on busier lines. Riding (for example) the S2 - a fairly popular line going from downtown to Adams Morgan, Columbia Heights and eventually Silver spring, it took me nearly 40 minutes to make the approximately 3 mile ride from downtown. This was at night, not during rush hour.

The reason for this is that the bus stopped at nearly every block to pick up passengers. If every other bus stop had been eliminated, the trip would have been significantly faster, and the inconvenience to the riders only marginal.

Do we really need a bus stop on EVERY block, or even every other? I'd rather walk as much as 1/4 mile in exchange for faster service. I know there are arguments some make about people who have handicaps and may not be able to easily walk, but how many people does this affect? Is there a right to have a bus stop as close to your home as the route allows? It seems a compromise for the good of the system overall should be made.

by Jamie on Nov 12, 2008 10:45 am

Per Jamie, I'd like to see discussion of the worst-performing bus stops -- the most unnecessary and/or redundant stops.

I'll nominate either the 70/71/Circulator stop at 6th and K SW or the one at 7th and I SW, on the opposite corner of the same block. Two stops on the same block? Unnecessary. And more so when you consider there are also stops at 7th and G SW and 6th and M SW. Given one, I'd eliminate 7th and I, since stopping for it often means missing the light and 6th and I, but, frankly, both could be eliminated with little if any loss of service.

by cminus on Nov 12, 2008 12:54 pm

@ Jamie

Thats what you may want to do but what about everybody else they dont need to get rid of some stops but to add and express bus like they did on the 70 route. I've seen a lot of people get the 79 metroextra route to a couple of stops before or after there stop and then catch the 70 the rest of the way.

Maybe having an S3 route that goes from 14 & Missouri to like metro center that has stop every half mile or changing either the S2 or S4 to an metro extra route but keeping one bus as a regular route; getting rid of stops may benefit you but not everyone else they shouldnt be every block but every 1/4 is outragous. Maybe a poll should be taken to see how people really feel about it but i doubt anyone would like it.

by kk on Nov 12, 2008 4:32 pm

Right now stops are basically on every block. I think there's a balance between the express bus, which has very few stops, and stopping on every single block.

Given that buses typically come only every 15 or 20 minutes (or less often at off-peak times), don't you think most people would rather walk just one extra block - probably 2 minutes - than have their trip take an extra 15 minutes?

Nearly everyone has to walk some distance to the stop in the first place, unless you happen to live right next to one, so it hardly seems like a big deal.

I am also in favor of adding express buses for longer routes, but this is much more expensive (versus basically free to eliminate stops) and still doesn't solve the problem for the vast majority of commuters. If you have to change buses to take advantage of the express route, then you have to wait twice, pretty much eliminating the time benefit. This would only be worthwhile on a long trip.

by Jamie on Nov 12, 2008 4:50 pm

Upgrading the X2 to lightrail wont do that much for either, it will probably run on schedule but it will still be crowded as hell; since its the only route that really goes from NE to NW in the general area it may thin out for a while but the amount of people will just catch up with it and then at that point the lightrail will be needing an upgrade.

The E6 goes nowhere basically why not reroute either the E2,3 to run up Oregon & then Western Avenues and just get rid of it.

Why not extend the 98 to the Convention Center or to either Shaw/UnionStation/New York Ave metro stops then run it all day and have stops 1/2 mile apart or just get rid of it and up the amount of buses on the 90,92 & 96

and btw how did you get 30/32/34/35/36 line there isnt a 30,34 or 35 shouldnt it be 31/32/36/37/39/M5 and those changes seem to have been for the worst not better since each bus is now crowded

by kk on Nov 12, 2008 4:58 pm

kk: Upgrading the X2 to light rail will do a lot for the line. Assume the current bus service is a 60' articulated bus every 7 minutes, the rush hour schedule today (though not totally with articulated buses). The capacity of a New Flyer articulated bus is 119 riders (62 seated plus 57 standing), which is typical for the new low-floor style buses purchased by transit agencies today. The capacity of the new articulated NABI buses purchased by WMATA is 103. http://wmata.com/about/met_news/PressReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=2320

Compare that with light rail. Same frequency service with single Citadis trams by Alstom (WMATA supplier for the 6000 series cars). Their 20m (66 foot) has a stated capacity of 145 passengers, over 20% greater per vehicle. Additionally, the same employee can operate a much longer vehicle, with the Citadis system of vehicles as long as 40m (131 feet) at 300 passengers per vehicle. Other manufacturers like Skoda or Bombardier also have tram systems with similar characteristics.

Light rail vehicles also accelerate faster (higher torque electric motors compared to similarly powered diesel/natural gas engines), contributing to faster travel speeds. Anyone who has ridden an electric trolleybus can attest that they accelerate faster. This faster travel speed benefits riders, who get where they're going faster, as well as the agency, who can provide more frequent service with the same number of vehicles (or the same frequency with fewer vehicles).

Once WMATA (or DDOT?) is running a 40m tram every 3 minutes, I don't know what they could do for capacity. Probably upgrade some parallel routes? That capacity is approximately equal to a two-car metro train running every 3 minutes, though at a lower travel speed. It's also about 5 times higher than articulated buses at 6 minutes, though half of the upgrade is admittedly due to service frequency.

The 98 bus is being eliminated in favor of a DC Circulator. I don't yet know the full route. There is a hearing next Thursday at 6:30pm. See http://wmata.com/about/MET_NEWS/PressReleaseDetail.cfm?ReleaseID=2339

The reason I cited a 30/32/34/35/36 line was that was the data I had from 2007. I have requested the 2008 data which should reflect the changes to the 30s line. When I receive it I will update everyone. It's a shame this isn't posted on their "documents of presumed public interest" page. There certainly was a lot of public interest in this year-old data.

by Michael P on Nov 12, 2008 8:23 pm

@ Michael P

I was point out how DC is going to find the cheap way out and i doubt they will ever run the trams every 3 minutes.It would probably be just a little more often than the current bus maybe less since they will have their own lane. DC probably wont purchase enough cars to run them every 10 minutes.

The way things look we wont see no tram cars in DC until 2013 regardless of if there running or not. Im just waiting to hear the next road block for anytype of public transit

by kk on Nov 12, 2008 9:32 pm

kk: The next road block is likely to be how to power the streetcars, or the basic money issue.

It will probably be a long time before the X2 streetcar runs every 3 minutes, since the purchase price of all those cars could be used to build other streetcar lines instead.

I will reiterate that even with the same frequency of vehicles you're getting 20% more capacity.

DC already owns some streetcars; they're in storage in the Czech Republic. They're already working on H street; from a friend I hear that as part of the rehabilitation the track is going in. I haven't been up to H to see it myself. The last part is the power source.

by Michael Perkins on Nov 13, 2008 6:31 am