Denser development in Fairfax. Photo by magandafille on Flickr.

The “end of the exurbs” trend narrative story has hit the Washington Post front page, with a very good article by Eric (”War on Drivers”) Weiss. As we well know, families just aren’t moving out to the fringe of the metropolitan area for cheap housing yet grueling commutes; “the days of building giant houses on former soybean fields on the outer fringes of metropolitan areas are over.”

Weiss not only identifies the trend but delves into the causes, and gets them right:

Since the end of World War II, government policy has funded and encouraged the suburban lifestyle, subsidizing highways while starving mass transit… Federal spending is about 4 to 1 in favor of highways over transit. Today, more than 99 percent of the trips taken by U.S. residents are in cars or some other non-transit vehicle, largely as a result of decades of such unbalanced spending.

And Fairfax, at least, is ready to change at places like Tysons:

“We need to change the patterns of development,” said Gerald E. Connolly (D), chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. “We have to move to a new transit-oriented development paradigm and concentrate development and avoid the sprawl that we’ve allowed in the past and undo some of the environmental damage.”

He pointed to nearby Arlington County and its Rosslyn-Ballston corridor, alive with pedestrians and dense housing development. “We actually know it works,” Connolly said.

Fortunately for the region, Connolly is very likely going to be Northern Virginia’s next new Congressman, replacing retiring Republican Tom Davis. While he championed the Dulles Corridor Metrorail project, Davis also blocked TOD around Vienna for political reasons.

Others quoted in the article think suburbs will remain largely the same, but with jobs moving closer to the people. Ryan Avent agrees, but points out that jobs can only get so much closer when people live far apart.

Suburbs are partly a product of some people’s desire for big houses and yards, and partly a product of government spending priorities making sprawl more economically attractive than walkable neighborhoods. High gas prices don’t mean the end of suburbs, but they have ended the bias in their favor. The pendulum is already swinging back. The only question is how far.

(Thanks to Andrew and Ken who both sent me the article.)