Photo by infosnackhq on Flickr.

What will the fare be on the Silver Line, such as from downtown to Dulles Airport? Metro has not announced fares for the line yet, but we can offer some estimates based on today’s fares.

In short, unless the current fare caps are changed, the answer would be $5 peak, $2.75 off-peak, with Fairfax and Loudoun paying big extra subsidies. More likely, the fare would be something like $6.20 peak, $3.50 off-peak.

First, it’s important to understand the current Metro fare structure.

There are two formulas used to determine the fare between two stations. One is used for off-peak periods (the “reduced fare”), the other is used for peak periods (the “regular fare”). Peak-of-the-peak just adds 20¢ to the regular fare, and the paper farecard surcharge adds 25¢ to the reduced, regular, or peak-of-the-peak fare.

Current Metro fares. Graphic by the author.

During off-peak periods, fares fall into one of three buckets. Trips equal to or less than 7 miles cost $1.60

$1.95

. If your trip is between 7 and 10 miles, the cost is $2.15. Any trips over 10 miles in length cost $2.75.

If you travel during peak periods, the formula is a bit more complex. The first 3 miles cost $1.95. For each mile between 3 and 6, riders are charged 29.9 cents per mile, in addition to the $1.95 base. For any mile beyond 6 miles, the per mile rate is 26.5 cents. Fares stop increasing at $5. The $5 cap does not include the peak-of-the-peak or paper farecard surcharges.

Under the current fare structure, after 14 miles, fares stop increasing. That means that if we added the Silver Line without changing the fare structure, the fare cap would keep fares at a maximum of $5. That probably won’t be the case, however.

Note for accuracy: When I say “miles,” Metro is actually using “composite miles,” which averages the distance on the actual rails and the distance as the crow flies.

Currently, the suburban jurisdictions pay half the difference of what the actual fare would be without the cap. With the Silver Line being so long, that arrangement may not continue to be feasible.

Many riders are probably unaware of the cap, and therefore assume that longer lines will automatically result in higher fares. Without the cap, Metro fares would hit a maximum of $9.05 for a trip from Franconia to Shady Grove without peak-of-the-peak or farecard surcharges.

Metro fares without a $5 peak cap. Graphic by the author.

If the Silver Line was added into a fare structure without the $5 cap, the maximum fare would rise to $11.80. That would be the cost of a trip from Route 772 at the end of the Silver Line to Largo Town Center at the end of the Blue Line.

Under that scenario, the fare from Dulles to Metro Center would be $7.80.

Metro fares after Silver Line, without $5 cap. Graphic by the author.

But it’s unlikely Metro will have uncapped fares. What is a far more likely scenario would be for Metro to raise the cap, and perhaps add a fourth tier to both peak and off-peak trips. The chart below shows one potential scenario.

Graphic by the author.

In this scenario, fares are capped at $6.20 during peak periods. Above 14 miles, riders are charged 20 cents per mile. Additionally, off-peak fares receive a fourth tier of fares. For trips longer than 15 miles, riders are charged $3.50.

Let’s look at a few potential fare possibilities.

Under the current fare structure, fares would have 3 buckets for off-peak, and would be capped at $5. In that case, trips from selected stations on the Silver Line would look like this:

Silver Line fares with current fare structure
Tysons 123
Wiehle Ave
Dulles Airport
Route 772
Off-PeakPeakOff-PeakPeakOff-PeakPeakOff-PeakPeak
Dulles Airport$2.75$4.65$1.60$2.80
-
-
$1.60$2.50
E. Falls Church$1.60$2.50$2.75$4.35$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00
King Street$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00
Metro Center$2.75$4.40$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00
Rosslyn$2.15$3.75$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00
Silver Spring$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00
Union Station$2.75$4.70$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00$2.75$5.00

Under the scenario with giving off-peak and peak fares a fourth tier and a peak cap of $6.20, fares would look like this:

Silver Line fares with four tiers and a peak $6.20 cap
Tysons 123
Wiehle Ave
Dulles Airport
Route 772
Off-PeakPeakOff-PeakPeakOff-PeakPeakOff-PeakPeak
Dulles Airport$2.75$4.65$1.60$2.80
-
-
$1.60$2.50
E. Falls Church$1.60$2.50$2.75$4.35$3.50$5.65$3.50$6.20
King Street$3.50$5.15$3.50$6.20$3.50$6.20$3.50$6.20
Metro Center$2.75$4.40$3.50$5.90$3.50$6.20$3.50$6.20
Rosslyn$2.15$3.75$3.50$5.45$3.50$6.20$3.50$6.20
Silver Spring$3.50$5.50$3.50$6.20$3.50$6.20$3.50$6.20
Union Station$2.75$4.70$3.50$6.15$3.50$6.20$3.50$6.20

Finally, what would fares look like under the current structure, if they were not capped at $5?

Silver Line peak fares if the current structure had no $5 cap
Tysons 123
Wiehle Ave
Dulles Airport
Route 772
PeakPeakPeakPeak
Dulles Airport$4.65$2.80
-
$2.50
East Falls Church$2.50$4.35$5.90$7.05
King Street$5.25$7.00$8.50$9.70
Metro Center$4.40$6.25$7.80$8.90
Rosslyn$3.75$5.60$7.15$8.25
Silver Spring$5.65$7.35$8.85$9.85
Union Station$4.70$6.55$8.10$9.20

You can see possible fares between all stations and each Silver Line station on the full spreadsheet (XLS).

Matt Johnson has lived in the Washington area since 2007. He has a Master’s in Planning from the University of Maryland and a BS in Public Policy from Georgia Tech. He lives in Dupont Circle. He’s a member of the American Institute of Certified Planners, and is an employee of the Montgomery County Department of Transportation. His views are his own and do not represent those of his employer.