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A real evacuation plan wouldn't look like Tuesday

Imagine we needed to evacuate downtown DC and Arlington quickly, in the middle of the day. What would be the best way to do that?


Photo by tbone_sandwich on Flickr.

We know what wouldn't work: telling all employees to go home at the same time. That's pretty much what happened Tuesday after the earthquake. No bridges or roads were damaged, though some traffic signals had switched to flashing red or had lost time synchronization.

The Metro ran at 15 mph, causing huge crowds and long waits for those riding. But that couldn't have much affected the numbers of cars on the road, since anyone who didn't drive into work wasn't going to drive back home.

Can our transportation network possibly move so many people at once?

Roads are a very flexible form of transportation, but are inefficient in their use of space. Each car takes up a lot of room. The New York Subway's 22 tracks carry as many people as at least 167 lanes of car tunnels would.

If people drove evenly throughout the day, the road network would work optimally, but they don't. Buses and trains work better for moving people in a shorter time period to a small number of locations, because they cost more to run but can fit more people in a smaller space.

There are ways to make the road more efficient. More people could occupy each car. That's the logic behind the HOV rules and slugging on I-395 and other roads. Thanks to slugging and high bus volume, 95/395 is one of the most efficient roadways for its size in the nation (but will actually get less efficient with HOT lanes).

Instead of pushing more carpooling, VDOT actually waived the HOV restrictions on its freeways on Tuesday. That doesn't make a lot of sense. It's like they just threw their hands up and said, "Wow, earthquake! Let's just ignore everything we do to make our roads work better!"

If we knew ahead of time that we'd have to evacuate DC in a hurry one day, but didn't know when, we might actually plan for stricter HOV restrictions than usual. Take a few main arteries and make them exclusively HOV-3 or HOV-4 for the evacuation. Ask workers and residents to find "evacuation buddies" who work in the same office or live in the same inner neighborhood. These people would share the car when evacuation time came.

Once those carpools get to suburban residential areas, people will have to get home, but depending on the type of disaster, just getting everyone out might be most critical. The drivers can give rides that one time to their passengers, or they can wait in places like libraries for family members to pick them up.

Buses could also use the HOV roads, allowing them to travel much faster back to commuter lots and make a return trip to pick up even more people.

Not surprisingly, advocates for more roads and sprawl, like the Northern Virginia Transportation Alliance, immediately jumped on the issue to call for new Potomac River bridges as part of their long attempts to build an Outer Beltway. Such bridges wouldn't actually alleviate existing traffic congestion, but would instead just drive more sprawl development and make the evacuation challenge that much harder.

During the earthquake, Ezra Klein cleverly tweeted, "This earthquake has clear policy implications that back up my previously held political opinions." That's certainly true for NVTA.

I actually learned something from the earthquake that doesn't back up previously-held opinions: we can't count on Metrorail for an emergency. Especially with today's safety concerns, Metro is going to err on the side of limiting its operations in unusual circumstances. That's probably the right move if it's not a matter of life and death. But it means we need to think about evacuations another way.

We also need to think about when evacuations are necessary. Often they're not. One of the best things the federal government can do is not to send everyone home at the exact same time. Instead, the response from OPM seems to be to pull the "everyone go home" handle at any sign of trouble. We know that this causes gridlock.

DDOT Director Terry Bellamy said at a press briefing, "You can never build your way out of an event. I know there was a lot of talk about building more bridges across to Virginia, buidling more bridges into Maryland, but you never know where the event is going to occur," the WBJ reported.

Transportation Planning Board coordinator Ron Kirby told the Post, "Not only can [sending everyone home at once] not be done, we should not try it. ... If you give [people] very good timely information, they are going to make their own decisions in ways, in general, that are going to be better for them and better for the system as a whole."

Kirby also faults Metro for not communicating more; he might not have been on Twitter, because they actually did an excellent job of communicating there. They also sent multiple press releases out over their press list throughout the afternoon and evening. If you were at a train station or on a bus, was communication good or bad there?

The best way of all to get home after a major event like an earthquake? Walk or bike, if you can.

David Alpert is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Greater Greater Washington and Greater Greater Education. He worked as a Product Manager for Google for six years and has lived in the Boston, San Francisco, and New York metro areas in addition to Washington, DC. He loves the area which is, in many ways, greater than those others, and wants to see it become even greater. 

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Even more frightening is the fact that there were many of us who didn't leave work early. In the event of a more significant emergency, the impact on transportation systems would have been even greater than what we saw.

by Rob P on Aug 25, 2011 12:12 pm • linkreport

Best thing you can do is to keep a pair of comfortable shoes at work, and stay in shape.

by JD on Aug 25, 2011 12:21 pm • linkreport

Way too unfocused.

The problem here is OPM and that they "control" some many employees. Releasing that flood is going to cause problems.

Dave clearly was not around on 9/11 or he would have know metro was not an option either.

The real answer: don't evacuate Washington. Don't panic.

by charlie on Aug 25, 2011 12:28 pm • linkreport

In a major event its hard to tell people not to go home. Its their natural instinct, they feel safer there. People who feel the need to leave are going to do so reguardless of what they are told to do.

by Matt R on Aug 25, 2011 12:31 pm • linkreport

Walk or bike, if you can.

The problem is that anybody living outside can not walk there. I'm in pretty good shape, but I can not walk 20 miles home.

You would also need an arrangement for "left" cars.

The fact that we can not count on metro is a major issue. I understand they went slow for a bit worried about damage. But as soon as the entire tracks had been covered by a few trains, the lack of damage should have prompted metro to resume normal service.

by Jasper on Aug 25, 2011 12:34 pm • linkreport

There is very little reason for an evacuation of the entire downtown. Only a large scale terrorist attack (ie dirty bomb) would call for such action, but even at that a shelter in place maybe better. The better plan is for workplaces to established emergency supplies so that employees can shelter in place for extended periods of time and slowly release population from the city center. Best thing in an emergency is keep everyone off the infrastructure until the danger has passed and it is declared safe.

by RJ on Aug 25, 2011 12:38 pm • linkreport

I was at Freedom Plaza during the quake and for about 10 minutes after, you could fairly easily navigate the roads. After that, the traffic became more congested, then roads were blocked, then the feds released their staff, then everyone else was sent home. We sort of made it a clusterF by design. Bikes, however, really did show themselves as a great alternative for nearby residents.

by Randall M. on Aug 25, 2011 12:39 pm • linkreport

JD makes a good point.
Since 9/11 I have always kept comfortable shoes, a toothbrush, and a stash of non-perishable food wherever I work. The problem is the overeaction and panic and how to moderate that. Even if I could have gotten home, if something was broken or flooding or burning, theres not much chance I could have intervened quickly enough anyway. I have good relations with neighbors who are home all day, and they have a key, and I asked them to just check for any water or gas issues. I realize ppl w/kids are a different story. But long story short is ppl need to chill, have a strategy, realize that staying put is usually safer. Frankly, DC-region denizens are control freaks and the panic over even minor events is a cultural thing that probably won't change.

by spookiness on Aug 25, 2011 12:46 pm • linkreport

Anecdotally, during the Japanese earthquakes bikes sold out in 30 minutes.

People can walk 20 miles. It may take them two days, however. I have to wonder what the obese and handicapped are supposed to do. Darwin at work, I guess.

A great argument for bikes. Anybody should be able to bike 20 miles in a day. Perhaps DC should have thousands of emergency bikes stored in basements along with the crackers.

by charlie on Aug 25, 2011 12:46 pm • linkreport

No problem on a bike, other than when I went to use Cabi the rack was empty, but a pair of tourists dropped off a couple bikes just in time for me. A couple guys in my office always laugh that I don't drive, but when Snowmaggedon III hit this past winter I was home in 45 mins (on the metro) while they were in their cars for hours. Most days the bike is the quickest way around, no comparision.

by Boots on Aug 25, 2011 12:48 pm • linkreport

Re: HOV lanes
If I commuted by car to DC and there was a widescale evacuation, I assure you that the $500-1000 fine for using HOV (if the restrictions weren't lifted) wouldn't be worth it to me. In the case of something extremely major, I highly doubt many people would have to think between "violate HOV" and "die".

If the restrictions aren't lifted in an emergency, what happens when 395-S is completely stopped and the HOV lanes have a few cars in it? Are those passing by on the HOV going to say "Well, that's what you get for not carpooling! Enjoy the radiation poisoning."?

There's no reason not to lift the HOV restriction in the event of an actual emergency evacuation.

by Sam on Aug 25, 2011 12:50 pm • linkreport

I agree with RJ above, I'm having a hard time imagining a scenario where we would need to evacuate the entire area at once. That said, does DC or the Department of Homeland Security have a plan for the evacuation of DC and Arlington? It seems like someone would have thought to do this after 9/11, no?

by grumpy on Aug 25, 2011 12:51 pm • linkreport

The roads worked just as they were built to. You can never build a road to function at the height of efficiency during a crisis, just as you can't with Metro.

Which brings me to another point. Metros problem wasn't that they were going slowly. It was that they never increased the volume of trains until the standard rush hour time.

We've seen in situations in the past (Obama inuaguration) that Metro can accomodate far more volume if there is a plan for it. Metro doesn't have a plan for situations like this.

The earthquake happened just before 2. People were streaming home by 2:30. Metro didn't increase the number of trains until the typical rush hour time, by which the system had already been choked with people for hours, enduring 12-15 headways to get on trains going 15 mph.

You would think that Metro would have a system in place where they could surge the system with additional trains within say...1 hour after an emergency strikes. I know its not fiscally sound to keep twice as many conductors in a room waiting to jump in a train in case of an emergency, but this isn't that hard. Have a revolving "on-call" system. Pay the train drivers who live closest to their respective rail yards a little more to be "on call".

The local DOT's already have the road situation figured out, which ones become one way evac routes, which ones lose HOV ROW (which is smart by the way, it increases the total volume of people able to leave a given area). Metro needs to figure out how to surge their system in less than 8 hours.

by freely on Aug 25, 2011 12:51 pm • linkreport

The real problem is earthquakes. And there weren't any when Klein was running DDOT. You'll note that Chicago was not impacted by the earthquake either.

by David C on Aug 25, 2011 1:01 pm • linkreport

I have a hard time imagining people following a set of centralized rules in an emergency, whether it's about what time to go home, or how, or who to carpool with. It seems like folks would rather endure chaos and gripe about it later than actually invest in and then go along with centralized planning for events like this.

Also, many people I know who drive to work when other transportation options make more sense are wedded to their cars in ways that supersede logical considerations. I DEFINITELY can't imagine them not just hopping in their cars and going (or rather, sitting in traffic), no matter what anyone else is saying to do or what makes sense. Just to clarify, I'm not talking about most car owners, just a few people I know who insist on driving everywhere even though it's more expensive, slower, less convenient, etc. Most people I know who own cars know better than to commute in them.

by Joe on Aug 25, 2011 1:04 pm • linkreport

grumpy, there is a plan. We've even rehearsed it. Not that you can tell. I can't find the full plan but here is a pamphlet which includes this:

"During a major event or emergency situation, radial evacuation routes featuring traffic signals will be timed. In addition, 70 critical intersections on the event/evacuation routes within Washington, DC will be manned with uniformed police officers to expedite the flow of traffic and to prevent bottlenecks. Also, these officers will direct you to alternate routes should an emergency warrant the closing of current event/evacuation routes."

Which is pretty much what happened right? Oh, it didn't?

by David C on Aug 25, 2011 1:11 pm • linkreport

@ Grumpy, from what I've seen/heard, the DHS has a plan for evacuating "official" washington, in the event of a significant attack. Pretty sure the rest of us are screwed. Rumor also has it that your best bet is to head north on foot because many contingency plans involve closing the close-in bridges for Army/DHS use.

by GinChevyChase on Aug 25, 2011 1:11 pm • linkreport

@freely:
With regard to Metro, that's not the actual problem. Metro did work to increase train headways as soon as possible, but even when all rush hour trains were operating, service was still reduced.

Why? Because if it takes longer for a train to run its route, you need more trains to keep the same headway.

Let's look at an example:

Let's say I have a subway line 10 miles long. The average speed on this line is 35 miles per hour (including station stops). It would therefore take one train 17 minutes to go from one end of line (station A) to the other (station Z).

If we only have one train, we could have a headway of 40 minutes. The train could leave station A at 12:00 and arrive at station Z at 12:17. It would wait 3 minutes and then depart at 12:20 for station A, arriving at 12:37. After 3 minutes, it would depart at 12:40. That's 40 minutes between trains bound for station Z departing from station A.

If we have 2 trains, we could have a headway of 20 minutes. With 4 trains, a headway of 10.

Now, let's change the equation. Let's make the average speed 10mph (with stops). It now takes 60 minutes for 1 train to go from A to Z.

With a recovery time of 3 minutes at each end, the headway could be no greater than 126 minutes (1 train every 2 hours 6 minutes).

With 2 trains, the headway would be 63 minutes, and with 4 trains, 31.5 minutes.

In order to get to the "normal" 10 minute headway, we would need about 14 trains, or almost 4 times as many as if the speed was 35mph.

Now, Metro can call up some extra personnel, but not that many.

by Matt Johnson on Aug 25, 2011 1:11 pm • linkreport

We could also try not panicing. I work in the legislative branch and not on the Hill itself. We weren't let go early (although people who felt they had a situation to deal with were allowed to take leave and go early) so I finished out my day and got home by bus at the regular time with no problem.

There was simply no reason for everyone to rush home. This was not an actual emergency. This was a dramatic over reaction.

by Kate W on Aug 25, 2011 1:13 pm • linkreport

I was on one of the very first post-quake trains, and it went slow but otherwise fine. The Metro driver was actually the first authority figure to tell me that it was, indeed, an earthquake that had happened. People I know who went home later had it much, much worse. It seems like the problem with the 15 mph protocol was that they just couldn't get enough volume at that speed, which lead to people stuffing into the doors at the last second, which lead to trains catching up to the trains in front of them, which led to trains going even slower than 15 mph.

by tom veil on Aug 25, 2011 1:14 pm • linkreport

@Jasper -- I've always figured, in a really, truly emergency, I will walk 29 miles home. At 3 miles per hour, that's only 10 hours of walking.:-)

by Miriam on Aug 25, 2011 1:24 pm • linkreport

@ Kate W - +1. The commute at 5:30 or 6 was a lot better than most nights. I didn't see any reason to rush home. My building was safe and I worked the rest of the afternoon after an hour outside. But even if we had been sent home without bad weather or chemical/radioactive air, I probably would have wandered around downtown.

by ah on Aug 25, 2011 1:29 pm • linkreport

This builds the case for a network of dedicated bike lanes/paths/cycle tracks/whatever throughout the city. At the very least people can use them to walk out if needed in the case of a more serious emergency especially at areas like bridges.

The fact that Tuesday was a traffic disaster doesn't surprise me. The transportation is already at capacity for moving the inhabitants of the metro DC area over roughly a 4 hour period. Throw any other variables in there like 15 mph run times and ignoring HOV rules, and the system breaks. Bikers and pedestrians are immune to these issues.

by Nicoli on Aug 25, 2011 1:31 pm • linkreport

I think the call to lift the HOV restrictions was exactly the right one. It's not like the police are going to enforce those restrictions during an emergency anyway.

But what SHOULD be done is to get people to plan, in advance, on how to evacuate the workplace. This does NOT include a half-ass fire drill where everyone just stands around the stairway entrance and chit-chats, but a *real* fire drill where you practice hurrying down the stairs and out the door to a pre-designated meeting spot.

And, what this post brings up is people ALSO need to plan, not just for evacuating the building, but evacuating downtown. This includes thinking through access to water/food/facilities, figuring out mode of transportation to get home, AND finding a "carpool buddy". The federal government can have a role in encouraging people to prearrange, in advance, who they will get an emergency ride home with if need be.

I have a little bit of experience with this. On 9/11, I was working in a Center City Philly skyscraper. Our building was completely evacuated. The president of our company made the decision that no one should ride SEPTA home because we didn't know whether the trains would be running or not [they were]. So we all quickly scrambled to get rides home. Because there was no pre-arrangements, this caused quite a bit of confusion.

by Marc on Aug 25, 2011 1:40 pm • linkreport

As Kate W points out, this wasn't really an emergency. I realize that lots of people wanted to check whether they had any damage at their homes, but it also seems like there was an underlying assumption here that residential construction was safer than office buildings: leave this building which was built to more stringent codes and which is continually monitored by a professional maintenance staff, and go to your house which may well have been modified any number of ways without permits. Or that somehow the earthquake was more intense in downtown than it was in outlying residential areas.

Since it wasn't really an emergency, Metro's play-it-safe approach is completely justified. But Metro does often seem to see itself as an optional part of our infrastructure, and not the core, bedrock mobility that it is. The idea that 200K+ downtown workers should prepare their own "alternate way home" is shirking their responsibility, which should be for Metro to find an alternate way to keep their riders moving.

For the few instances of an emergency where downtown will be less safe than people's homes, I hope Metro does have some sort of contingency plan. Since the trains are nearly automatically run anyways, are there provisions to let some trains run driverless? Or to have other Metro employees as emergency train drivers?

by thm on Aug 25, 2011 2:03 pm • linkreport

Evacuation buddies makes too much sense. It sounds like something from WWII when the average citizen actually made sacrifices for the common good. No, it will take a major catastrophe before people are willing to change such habits of comfort.

by aaa on Aug 25, 2011 2:06 pm • linkreport

This is what I was saying yesterday. Washington, DC's leaders acting with a distinct lack of maturity made the wrong decision at every stage of the game. They sent us into the streets when we should have stayed inside (our mostly well-built office buildings). They told us to go home, when they should not have.

There's some DC "emergency" agency or other that I still receive emails from even though I have asked repeatedly for them to stop. About 4 or 5 years ago, they held a training for what to do in an emergency. I'm not sure if they're still around (the same woman who led the training keeps sending me these annoying emails - maybe it's the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Administration) but they are utterly useless. The take away I got from that training was how to prepare an evacuation bag and don't have candles in the house. Otherwise, they were VERY hands-off (almost a situation of "let's avoid all liability at any cost") and would not talk about specifics of how to evacuate a building, let alone a city.

Of course, we have the DC Homeland Protection agency.

And these blogs, proposing changes in such a way that they will never happen.

(Sorry.) /disgust

by Jazzy on Aug 25, 2011 2:06 pm • linkreport

In the event of a real emergency evacuation (a dirty bomb or something like that) you commandeer MARC, VRE and Amtrak's trains and CSX's tracks and use them to get people out of the city.

The same would actually make sense for coastal areas like New Orleans for a hurricane - get as many trains as you can, and pack them and take people out to some town safely inland.

by TomA on Aug 25, 2011 2:12 pm • linkreport

A 5.8 magnitude earthquake is nothing to yawn over. While this may not have been Katrina or the situation in Japan, it was natural disaster completely foreign to likely 90% of DC area residents.

Keeping that in mind, it's no wonder that there was panic. I mean it's hard to explain and not panic when you feel the ground move beneath you or see windows rattle and not have a "WTF" moment. I unfortunately didn't leave work until 5 but got from FNorth to Anacostia in about 30min, which was only minutes outside of the norm. I understood that some people on the orange/blue lines (specifically those @L'enfant) had a really long wait but I didn't have much to really complain about.

I don't think that DC lacked an evacuation plan or that the plan didn't work. The problem were the people..not the plan. Post 9-11 It's no way in the world that people will choose to remain in their offices and wait to hear from their employers. Emergencies bring with it chaos. It just did.

Ironically, New Orleans was blasted for it's lack of emergency preparedness. Well imagine if the potomac and Anacostia rivers had flooded. Not sure how much an emergency plan would've helped.

by HogWash on Aug 25, 2011 2:14 pm • linkreport

On communication - Metro might have been excellent at tweeting, but that isn't sufficient in a situation like Tuesday.

I find this reliance on Twitter as the means of communication, rather than as a nice additional method, to be frustrating. It is not the basis of an effective communications system.

by Alex B. on Aug 25, 2011 2:14 pm • linkreport

@Jazzy, did DC leaders tell everyone to go out into the streets? I thought most people did that on their own.

by HogWash on Aug 25, 2011 2:17 pm • linkreport

Good point. What I was saying yesterday was that pretty quickly, the government leaders or police or fire should have said, this is an earthquake, stay inside. Or, it's an earthquake and it is probably over, shelter in place - don't go outside. I know that my building is in touch with the emergency services for instance. As usual, everything just kind of went kapoot, and fell apart.

by Jazzy on Aug 25, 2011 2:20 pm • linkreport

I see a lot of excuse making in these comments. You better believe there's a way to get people to act in a centralized way. Get a big cop yelling in people's faces. That will get people acting in concert. I mean, just cause (whine) we don't wanna.....

by Jazzy on Aug 25, 2011 2:32 pm • linkreport

It's days like the snowstorm earlier this year and the earthquake the other day that have convinced me that I will never live more than 10 miles from my workplace. Suburbs and exurbs are an unsustainable lifestyle. I will totally choose to live in a smaller space than travel great lengths for my job/house/etc.

Just like during the snowstorm, I worked my regular hours, walked home just like usual and didn't have to worry about metro or traffic. To me, that peace of mind and easy commute is invaluable.

by Alex on Aug 25, 2011 2:36 pm • linkreport

RE: HOV

I think it's impractical and certainly poor politics to use police officers to enforce HOV restrictions during an emergency or a panic.

Where I was during the earthquake, there was no general panic like everyone seems to be talking about on this thread. Most people, including myself, headed home because the building was evacuated and we didn't know how long it would be before we could get back inside. Also, while there was no general panic, many people felt too rattled to just go back to work like nothing happened, so they went home. I have a feeling that the brave souls who just "went back to work" were more likely spending their time on facebook, blogs, and email trading earthquake stories.

by Falls Church on Aug 25, 2011 3:07 pm • linkreport

Just as they would have been doing without an earthquake, Falls Church. I along with several others returned to work. Best thing we could have done. We worked and surfed.

You better believed we were rattled.

So what?

by Jazzy on Aug 25, 2011 3:10 pm • linkreport

Plans are of little value if the people involved in the plan don't know about it.

Of course an emergency calls for more stricter control of movements. Every serious effort to move large numbers of people during a crisis, from hurricane evacuation plans to military operations, accounts for needing more staff to direct traffic.

by David R. on Aug 25, 2011 3:15 pm • linkreport

Keeping that in mind, it's no wonder that there was panic. I mean it's hard to explain and not panic when you feel the ground move beneath you or see windows rattle and not have a "WTF" moment.

For us yes. For trained professionals and steely-eyed leaders, no. I am allowed to panic, but the emergency preparedness pros aren't. That's their job. And no elected official wants to run on "I'm just like you. I panic in emergencies too"

by David C on Aug 25, 2011 3:45 pm • linkreport

For us yes. For trained professionals and steely-eyed leaders, no. I am allowed to panic, but the emergency preparedness pros aren't. That's their job. And no elected official wants to run on "I'm just like you. I panic in emergencies too

I don't understand your point. I'm talking about "us" not trained professionals. I didn't see any trained professionals panic.

by HogWash on Aug 25, 2011 4:14 pm • linkreport

I didn't see any trained professionals panic.

I think telling everyone to go home was a sign of panic.

by David C on Aug 25, 2011 4:16 pm • linkreport

I think telling everyone to go home was a sign of panic.

It's very likely that I've missed the discussion but what are you talking about? Who were the trained professionals that told everyone to go home?

by HogWash on Aug 25, 2011 4:21 pm • linkreport

Having read all this, I need to give props to my company. They got on the PA and told us to stay inside until they could make sure things were safe outside. Then they had floor monitors (with orange vests and walky talkies and first aid kits and bottled water and maybe bear spray, I dunno)hold open the doors and herd us out like sheep. Then a dude in an orange vest with a bull horn gave us instructions. Eventually they closed the building and I biked home.

I am going to write to our building staff and thank them for doing such a sweet job!

Sorry to hear it was such a clustercuss for so many folks though. It was a good learning experience for me. I realize I need to figure out how to meet up with my family when the cell phones don't work. I also need to keep a clean pair of underwear at work.

by Austin DC on Aug 25, 2011 4:27 pm • linkreport

Hogwash, did you read the post? It's like the first sentence of the 2nd paragraph. OPM sent everyone home.

by David C on Aug 25, 2011 4:28 pm • linkreport

I must have missed this panic.

Poor execution of the plan? Sure, perhaps. Failure to follow the plan? OK. Confusion? Maybe. But I didn't see anyone panicking.

I don't think this is nitpicking or a semantic argument, either - panic is a very specific thing.

by Alex B. on Aug 25, 2011 4:31 pm • linkreport

I'm going to quit soon.

But first.

FEMA (fire...someone) not getting in touch with some centralized command telling people the correct thing to do (shelter in place NOT go outside) was a form of panic.

The building security emergency people not stopping people running down flights of stairs.

People (authorities) froze. Panic.

Perhaps this discernment or lack thereof is an age thing.

by Jazzy on Aug 25, 2011 4:31 pm • linkreport

@David, yeah I read but that's really not what happened.

Around 3:45 or so, OPM posted a message under it's "operating status" and I don't recall it ever instructing everyone to go home. From what I remember reading, it said something like "Some agencies have begun to allow their their employees to leave early. Therefore, we are recommending early dismissal for all federal employees"

Now while my phrasing isn't exact, I know for a fact that the "some agencies have begun..." point preceded the actual dimissal from OPM. I understand that you're basing your opinion on the extent of "panic" off of DAl's belief that they told everyone to go home at the same time. But it's not really an accurate reflection of what occured. I even remember the same yellow "caution" icon that's up on the site now.

All this to say, your assertion that the "professionals" panicked isn't supported by any real facts. After reflection, I think even DAl would agree that his take on it wasn't exactly based on an objective fact. They didn't send everyone home at the same time. They just didn't. They left a bit of wiggle room and didn't simply close down the fed gov't.

by HogWash on Aug 25, 2011 4:59 pm • linkreport

Hogwash, so some agency leaders panicked earlier than OPM did. That's reassuring.

by David C on Aug 25, 2011 5:05 pm • linkreport

How do you shelter in place if your building is closed? Okay maybe in this case the buildings were closed unecessarily, though I work in an large old 1920s/30s federal building and I wouldn't have been comfortable re-entering it on Tuesday prior to a suitable inspection. You may be able to shelter in place in a snowstorm or even a dirty bomb, but what if an earthquake was just that more powerful - 6.0 or 6.2 - and buildings are in fact damaged? Sheltering in place in that case? Perhaps the emergency planning needs to take into account a range of occurance types with responses that fit the need, rather than one solution fits all.

by Federale on Aug 25, 2011 5:26 pm • linkreport

Well if you're considering anyone who might have allowed their employees to leave before their regularly scheduled time as "panicked" then likely nothing will be reassuring to you. It surely won't matter that the official "dismissal" came a whole two hours after the hit.

by HogWash on Aug 25, 2011 5:32 pm • linkreport

I thought you were supposed to shelter in place during the earthquake. And then evacuate the building after the earthquake, in case it fell down, making sure that you evacuated to a place a safe distance away from buildings that might fall down. No? In which case, it seems to me too much to expect of the trained professional emergency-managers to send out e-mails to shelter in place before the end of a 15-30 second earthquake.

by Miriam on Aug 25, 2011 6:48 pm • linkreport

freely:
It's not fair to compare Tuesday to the inauguration or any other planned event. While there may be trains available sitting in rail yards, you also need people to operate them. Yes, you can keep people on call but you still need to obey federal regulations pertaining to how much rest people need between shifts.

Also, GGW, is there any way for you to customize the Captcha? It would be helpful if you can eliminate the Greek, Cyrillic, and other non-Romanized characters? Yes, I know I can type them, but when I want to make a post, I really don't want to try and figure out how to make a и and reloading the challenge multiple times is really annoying. Not sure if it's possible or not, but just a suggestion. Maybe it's time for an actual login-based comment system? 90% of the time, the Captcha is completely unreadable and I'm not a robot, honestly!

by Sam on Aug 25, 2011 7:53 pm • linkreport

At my federal agency, we were evacuated to the sidewalk and waited until the all-clear came from our building management, but no one was particularly interested in that option by then.

Rather than schlep back to Alexandria, I contacted my DC-based boyfriend who works at a different federal agency and we met over by the Smithsonian. I decided (rather easily) that trying to make it back out to Alexandria would be a fools' errand with Metro running slowly and Union Station being closed. I was, of course, fortunate to have someone to stay with the District, and this has reinforced my resolve to move closer to work as soon as I can.

by Craig on Aug 25, 2011 8:22 pm • linkreport

I think on the whole the City managed rather well. Our building was evacuated and after it was declared safe we returned to work. I truly believe the gridlock that happened on the streets was due to the selfishness of the drivers. We all wanted to get home but there were drivers at every intersection who would "block the box" causing traffic to build up.

I think that as soon as a similar event occurs that MPD should have traffic officers at the major intersections to keep traffic flowing.

by DC Quilter on Aug 25, 2011 8:54 pm • linkreport

I think this all started when the schools let the kids out early. Then parents needed to be home to "protect" thier kids from the "earthquake damage" and aftershocks. Although my office did not get early release, there was a great deal of concern within the office that their kids weren't safe.

No one should have left home early yesterday, including schools; however, in an acutal evacutaion, students should be evacuated togther to predetermined locations, where they will be safe until a parent or guardian is found and cane pick them up in person.

Instead, the schools just gave up for the day and sent the kids home alone. It's no wonder everyone in DC felt the sudden need to leave at the same time.

If they thought their kid was safe, maybe they would have been more comfortable waiting for an orderly evacuation. (and why did we evacuate DC again?!)

by Steven Harrell on Aug 25, 2011 10:08 pm • linkreport

David Alpert wrote that lifting HOV restrictions in Virginia didn’t make a lot of sense. Are you kidding me? It was about one of the only things that worked well. Once finally out of the city, 395 South was a breeze. I know because I drove that route home about 4pm. Thank you VDOT.

by Michael on Aug 25, 2011 10:32 pm • linkreport

I love the comment about DC control freaks - so true - and appreciate the difficulties faced when school systems ask everyone to jump to their beat.

But, amidst your pondering of metro schedules, please recognize that the root problem has to do with the whole bizarre notion of clumping together in massive, unsustainable metropolitan areas. There were 200 or so people in Louisa County who were affected economically - not an impossible situation for a state/community to deal with. Fifty miles and a hundred thousand people or so away, the rest of us in Central Virginia felt a mere shaking. Compare, please, what you would have needed from us if the center of this fairly mild event had been in central DC.

by Augustagirl on Aug 25, 2011 11:05 pm • linkreport

For those that were in DC for yesterday's earthquake and Sept. 11, the mass of confusion, traffic logjams, and Metro's limitations should be no surprise. You can have as many plans in as many color-coordinated binders as you want. But the moment an actual life-or-death type event occurs, all that planning goes out the window and basic human nature kicks in.

The criticism of the HOV lanes being opened is simply not serious. Opening it allowed more traffic to move. Expecting people to make HOV buddy brigades while they're trying to get to their kids' schools or daycares is equally not serious. Not everyone is fortunate to live so close to where they work that walking or cycling is an option.

Unlike 9/11, I saw no panic on Tuesday. I saw lots of confusion and frustration, but no post-quake panic. Those that were here on 9/11 remember what actual panic and fear looked like. Tuesday was hardly comparable in that sense. But it was comparable in terms of total traffic gridlock for several hours and the clear inability of the Feds, city, and surrounding counties to have a comprehensive evacuation plan that can be activated until at least a few hours after an emergency has occurred.

by Fritz on Aug 25, 2011 11:18 pm • linkreport

Simply put, there was no problem getting people out of downtown, while there was a severe problem getting personal automobiles out of downtown. The excess of automobiles also made it impossible for busses to get anywhere either.

If anything, the needs of evacuation are another reason to strongly discourage automobile commuting in the first place. Trying to impose an HOV restriction is understandable but it would never work. (Though, I suppose MPD could develop an "emergency bus lane" plan, maybe?)

Where I work, the evacuation alarm went off about 45 seconds after the shaking stopped. We were sent home about 3 because it was obvious by then that the AOC wouldn't let anyone back into our buildings before they were inspected, and that wasn't finished until 9pm when staff and visitors were allowed to collect their belongings. The only part of the evacuation that mostly worked was the unwritten part, that is, "when you leave, be ready to go straight home, grab all your stuff first." A couple people I know did get stuck till nine, which had to be awful.

by Steve S. on Aug 26, 2011 12:41 am • linkreport

Moving on the hurricane. Who's not jealous of all the New Yorkers with their man of action mayor? I know more about what the NY metro area is doing in prep for Irene than I do for what DC is doing which does not seem to be much. I understand that there are two different impacts we could be talking about. Still. I've been looking and looking about how this is going to affect us. I know about North Carolina, Ocean City and of course NYC. But hardly much on Washington, DC.

PS: The capcha's are getting almost too challenging!

by Jazzy on Aug 26, 2011 7:36 am • linkreport

Compare, contrast, get ready to laugh.

1) http://www.weather.com/weather/hurricanecentral/article/new-york-irene-preps_2011-08-25

2) Mayor Vincent C. Gray Urges Residents to Prepare for Potential Impact of Hurricane Irene
The District is ready to respond to hurricane; agencies are gearing up to meet the challenge

(Washington, DC) Mayor Vincent C. Gray is urging residents to take the necessary precautions to meet the challenges that may be presented by Hurricane Irene. The hurricane is a Category 3 and the National Hurricane Center has placed the Washington, DC metropolitan area on hurricane watch. Hurricane Irene can bring heavy rain, flash floods and high winds to the area. The city is getting ready for the impending storm and placing agencies on alert.

"While we cannot predict with certainty the path of the hurricane, residents must be ready," said Mayor Gray. "That means residents need to have a plan that they can activate. If they do not have a plan, they can go to hsema.dc.gov to learn what is needed. These storms can cause power outages that may last through several days. Residents should have an adequate supply of medications, infant formula, water, fresh batteries and other essentials."

Gray's emergency management team met today and is ready to deploy resources as needed. This week the team participated in an exercise to hone their skills in response to a hurricane.

The Department of Public Works will assist residents with preparing their homes to withstand flooding by distributing five sandbags per household beginning at noon, Friday, August 26, at its New Jersey Avenue and K Street, SE site. The entrance is at New Jersey Avenue and I Street, SE and staff will be on hand to direct residents to the distribution point. Distribution will continue through midnight Friday, then resume at 8 am, Saturday, August 27, through midnight Saturday. Residents will be asked to show a DC identification.

The government is constantly monitoring the weather and will update the public as more information about the storm's track is known.

by Jazzy on Aug 26, 2011 7:49 am • linkreport

As a meteorologist, there are so many errors with that Gray press release it made me sick reading through it.

by Froggie on Aug 26, 2011 9:06 am • linkreport

@Federale--

OK, you wouldn't feel comfortable going back into your office until it was inspected after the earthquake. What about your house/ apartment building? Is there any reason to think that any building one evacuated to after the earthquake was inherently safer than the buildings from which one evacuated?

by thm on Aug 26, 2011 10:33 am • linkreport

@thm:
Fair point, but my question is why does emergency planning assume I will stay with my damaged office building? If it is damaged why would I even try to shelter in place there? Even awaiting inspection can take a long time - I read in comments above that buildings on the Hill were re-opened by the AOC at 9pm; my building was not cleared officaly until late Wednesday. No one is going to shelter at locations under those circumstances; if anything, they are going to head home to see what the circumstances are there, and then figure out what comes next. So unless the city is actually being evacuated - emptied out by order - people will head home. This is what happened on Tuesday, we didn'thave an evacuation, we had an early rush hour. This will continue to happen in future (non-evacuation)emergencies - rush hour will happen shortly after whatever incident settles down. Therefore, we should not be surprised by this; emergency planning needs to acknowledge this possibility, and not assume folks will hang out in some non-home, non-office limbo.

by Fedearale on Aug 26, 2011 12:06 pm • linkreport

Yep, walk or bike if you can and if it's safe to go home. If you live in the city and need to get out, have a transportation buddy to get you out of the city. And if you live in the 'burbs and it's suddenly impossible to get home, have a city-dweller friend with a couch or soft floor. I have all of these plans in place...it's only good sense. The only time I've kind of activated this was after the red line crash, I had 2 coworkers sleeping at my house for the night. One had planned on this in case something happened that he couldn't get home. The other was caught off-guard and decided to ask around, and I had room for him. Sure, that meant that I slept on the couch and they shared the bedroom, and I called house shower in the morning, but it worked out okay. My evacuation buddy's wife works downtown and has to drive due to the nature of her job, and so 5 of us have agreements with him for her to drive us to their house if DC is uninhabitable for some reason (while it's technically illegal for 2 people to pile into the cargo bay of an SUV, in an emergency I think that's the least of the police's concerns). I also have another friend who parks at a far-flung Metro and is willing to drive me to her house and let me sleep on the floor if necessary and Metro can get us TO her car. We were also prepared to host our MARC and VRE coworkers for the night should service not resume on Tuesday.

But overall planning is also necessary. In a situation like the earthquake where the city doesn't NEED to be evacuated, staggered releases seem reasonable. However, you're right about making it too easy to flee. As soon as we got out of our building (less than 1 minute after the shaking stopped), 14th St. NW was a mess with people who just decided to leave, release or no release. Those people should not benefit from relaxed HOV regulations. Buildings were not toppling down in DC, there were no immediate threats to people doing as we did...wait out the initial inspection of the building, go in and gather our stuff, go have some drinks, and then board the Metro after the crush passed. Sure, I was passing out sunscreen to coworkers unprepared to stand outside for an hour (I grabbed my purse which always contains sunscreen before we hightailed it out of the building, knowing that we might not be let back in, and even if we were, I was going to be standing outside for a while and needed UV block), but a very slightly increased risk of melanoma was the most serious concern.

In a serious evacuation emergency, all roads should be turned outbound only, busses (only) should be allowed to use shoulders and every one available should be mobilized, HOV regulations should be enhanced, trains should be employed in an outbound-intense manner, and neighboring city's bus systems should be mobilized to move people further from the epicenter. I have little faith that my basic laywoman's take on this will be employed, but it's imperative that we think about this.

by Ms. D on Aug 26, 2011 9:48 pm • linkreport

I should also note that a number of my coworkers failed to grab basic necessities, like purses, wallets, and smartrip cards before evacuating the building. HELLO? That's emergency preparedness 101. Have your basic stuff and cell phone within arms reach, people...

by Ms. D on Aug 26, 2011 9:53 pm • linkreport

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