Roads
Are Washington's drivers really the worst?
Allstate released a report yesterday ranking metropolitan areas by frequency of car collisions. The Washington region came out dead last, spawning headlines like "DC has worst drivers in America."
Photo by IntangibleArts on Flickr.
It would get far less press attention to title a report "America's least collision-prone metropolitan areas," so they dub it "America's best drivers," putting the credit or blame on the quality of individual drivers, even though driving prowess is not what the analysis actually reveals.
It's easy to manipulate or simply misread statistics. Thus far, coverage has fairly unquestioningly repeated the line that the Washington area's drivers are the worst. A Dr. Gridlock post even juxtaposes this with another misleading and fairly thoroughly debunked study, the one saying our traffic is among the worst in the nation.
What's wrong with jumping from crash frequencies to conclusion that Washington area drivers are the nation's worst? It puts the blame or credit all on the drivers, rather than the road designers, licensing authorities, and police enforcing the laws. It also treats all crashes from minor fender bender to fatality the same.
Just counting collisions misses important facts
How many of these were just property damage? Minor injuries? Major or disabling injuries? Fatalities? It's important to keep in mind that in the District, the number of traffic fatalities each year can usually be counted on one hand.
Some road designs reduce severe crashes but potentially increase minor collisions. For example, many areas are finding "modern roundabouts," the small circles without signals, to be a fantastic alternative to huge intersections with multiple turn lanes or freeway-style interchanges. They move traffic more smoothly and safely, but minor collisions are more common while major ones are less so. Limbs and lives are more valuable than bumpers.
On the flip side, bad road design can contribute to collisions. Short yellow lights or poorly-coordinated signals can lead to red light running. Poor signage or markings can confuse drivers and induce sudden movements. And what about maintenance? Crumbling roads can damage cars, potentially adding to the collision tally if the person places a claim with Allstate.
What about other modes? If the methodology counts based on Allstate claims, it might undercount pedestrians or cyclists being struck who might not have insurance. That could penalize cities with good ped/bike safety practices. On the other hand, areas with more walking and bicycling can require more attention from drivers than areas with long, straight, very wide roads where nobody dares walk, and the rate of cars touching each other might be higher despite the many other benefits of these more lively places.
We also can't let Allstate's and the press's repeated usage of the word "accidents" pass by. When we have thoroughly vetted users traveling on context-sensitive travelways being taken aback by sheer acts of God, then these can be genuinely called "accidents." Until then we have crashes, collisions, and oft-unintended unions of flesh and metal.
Maryland actually has the best drivers?
Rankings always seem to grab the most headlines, and this is useful data for Allstate to release. But it's always important to keep in mind that statistics are very finicky. A quick analysis (XLS) shows that the rankings vary enormously based on what gets factored in.
Allstate ranked areas based on the average time between claims per driver. If we adjust these numbers to equalize vehicle miles traveled per capita, then Maryland comes out with the fewest collisions. So this story could easily have also borne the headline, "Maryland drivers the best in the nation." Are they the best or among the worst? We don't really know enough to say.
What can we do?
Even though it's disputable whether the area's drivers are really the worst, most people aren't contesting or doubting it. Rather, they're nodding in agreement and cheering it on among the blogosphere. We seem to agree that we're lousy drivers.
So perhaps we don't even need thrown-together numbers to tell us that? If we just assume our region is full of bad drivers, what's next?
We could look at licensing regulations, and do more to ensure those who get or keep licenses have a decent competency to drive. However, any weeding-out is politically difficult. What if we were the ones being weeded out? In one study, the vast majority of drivers said they thought they were above average. That's statistically impossible if there's anything close to a normal distribution.
What about enforcement? We could detect and punish more of the particularly unsafe behaviors on our roadways. Automated traffic cameras are an effective solution, but they too encounter resistance. Plus, as with the roundabouts, cameras might actually make a region's Allstate ranking worse while saving lives. Statistics on red light cameras also show that they often lead to more minor low-speed rear-end collisions while reducing the much more dangerous side-impact crashes.
Finally, we can design roads for the safety of all users, motorized and not. There's often pressure to design for higher speeds and then jurisdictions set lower speed limits when people get hurt. We can do more to build in the visual cues that help people slow down, pay attention, and reduce crashes, or at least reduce the most severe ones.
Any of these take some political courage. Will our region's leaders stand up to take action to improve DC's ranking on this survey or, better yet, on the more important statistics of fatalities and severe injuries?
 | David Alpert is the Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Greater Greater Washington and Greater Greater Education. He worked as a Product Manager for Google for six years and has lived in the Boston, San Francisco, and New York metro areas in addition to Washington, DC. He loves the area which is, in many ways, greater than those others, and wants to see it become even greater.   |
 | Andrew Bossi is a resident of Ward 2 in DC and a regular Red Line commuter. He works as a transportation engineer and planner, having primarily worked in Montgomery and Prince George's Counties. Andrew has a BS in Civil Engineering (Transportation focus) from Penn State and an MS in Civil Engineering (Traffic / Urban Planning focus) from the University of Maryland.  |
Comments
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Much better than Washcycle's takedown yesterday. You have to remember that Allstate, as an insurance company, has an incentive to lower all claims -- not just the serious ones.
And it was clearly being spun by the post as an excuse for more "roards" although they study didn't talk about the 3 largest jurisdictions in the area: Fairfax, Mont County and PG County.
That being said, the real takeaway for me is how much focus we need on individual actions. DC areas drivers are bad. Better licensing is one solution.
But I think this is all chatter, much like the aggressive driving uptick a few years ago. Or rather, Allstate would like it to be like that chatter.
by charlie on Sep 2, 2011 10:52 am • link • report
And it has nothing to do with the roads, or the signs, or the speeds, which are much the same here as anywhere else. It has all to do with the attitude of the drivers. This region is rife with self-important, self-entitled clowns who believe the car horn is an extension of their personality and to be used at the slightest excuse to bully other drivers.
I have seen people regularly use the second lane as an extra turn lane even when it isn't. I have witnesses buses turn even when the light has clearly turned red and block oncoming traffic. I have seen people weave in and out of traffic in speed zones as low as 20 mph. During power outages, no one treats dead traffic lights as four way stops.
I have even been yelled at by bicyclists for being in their way while I was crossing the street.
Simply put, DC has way too many people who only look out for themselves, and the rest be damned. And it is this attitude that is reflected on how little there is care and concern about their fellow drivers on the road.
by Ray Bottorff on Sep 2, 2011 10:59 am • link • report
by Devoe on Sep 2, 2011 11:01 am • link • report
But perhaps Bossi can work us through the spreadsheet. Does not make much sense to me.
If you're looking at frequency of any collision, VMT doesn't seem to matter.
by charlie on Sep 2, 2011 11:14 am • link • report
by Sharyn on Sep 2, 2011 11:22 am • link • report
The spreadsheet is pretty rough, as it was thrown together more for my own use rather than keeping it user-friendly for anyone else. Fortunately, as far as my spreadsheets go, it's at least a pretty simple one.
The first sheet is All-State's data. I assigned the regions at my own discretion; they're completely arbitrary- but the wonder of it is that if anyone doesn't agree with how I assigned a region or how the calculations work together in the first place: people are welcome to change it to their liking :)
The second sheet just graphs out some comparisons by region. I didn't label the charts, but basically the four bottom charts relate to the first four columns; then the right two charts relate to VMT and VMT/cap.
The VMT sheet is more data pulled from the Feds (gray boxes) and then compared to All-State's "Average Years between Crashes" data. The last five sheets then graph these out.
I agree that using a frequency for this calculation is less than ideal, but I had to make-do with the data I had available from this report. While I could've pulled crash data from other sources, it wouldn't have quite been the same as drawing directly from All-State's results... I just wish they'd included more of their raw data rather than merely presenting the results, as it'd have offered much more flexibility in interpreting their findings.
by Bossi on Sep 2, 2011 11:25 am • link • report
by spookiness on Sep 2, 2011 11:32 am • link • report
* Transcience (is that a word). Most places have their own driving style. On Manhattan: very aggressive; in some rural place: nice and polite. DC does not really have its own driving style because so many people only live here a short time. Not only politicians, but also their aids, lobbyists, embassy and military personnel, their families, and all the students (we are home to both VA's and MD's largest state school).
* Terrible signage. Especially in Virginia. I specifically hate the "right turn must turn right" signs in VA, and interstate signs that point in the wrong lane. Case and point:
View Larger Map
Six arrows, four lanes and a disappearing exit lane. Note that the rightmost arrow points to the emergency lane.
DC barely has signage.
View Larger Map
Entering DC over Memorial Bridge. No signage whatsoever. Yet, make the wrong choice and loose at least 15 minutes. DC also has its share of faulty signage. SE and SW have quite a few signs pointing to I-95(DC) while I-95 is nowhere near and factually barely exists in DC. They mean to point to I-295 or I-395.
* A mix of aggressive locals and clueless visitors.
* Poor and confusing roads. I-495 in VA between Braddock and the Legion Bridge. 23rd St near the Mall. Rosslyn. Crystal City. The Mall.
by Jasper on Sep 2, 2011 11:33 am • link • report
RE: maryland. I think you're seeing more than the allstate data only incldues baltimore city, not suburban washington (or suburban Baltimore).
But I still don't get your conclusion. Maybe it was the martinis last night. Dividing VMT by crash per year isn't helpful. It just means that maybe I drive 4000 miles a year and get into a crash every other year.
Fully agree that having more allstate data would be nice.
by charlie on Sep 2, 2011 11:35 am • link • report
by Josh Collins on Sep 2, 2011 11:46 am • link • report
Or the keep the Ruskies out.
by charlie on Sep 2, 2011 11:50 am • link • report
Regarding the study, my own admittedly-anecdotal experience (from driving all over the country and being stationed in several other places) is that, yes, the DC area has the worst drivers. This is in part because we truly are a melting pot, with people from all 50 states and numerous countries...all bringing their bad driving habits with them.
by Froggie on Sep 2, 2011 11:55 am • link • report
I think that nicely sums up the issue here.
I can say that since I've moved here, I often hear people complain that VA drivers are the worst.
by HogWash on Sep 2, 2011 12:02 pm • link • report
by Vik on Sep 2, 2011 12:18 pm • link • report
by David C on Sep 2, 2011 12:24 pm • link • report
I know that. Other states use tilted arrows. Much clearer.
But drive by there. You will find that now all arrows are pointing into a lane. Some point straight down a line between lanes. Similar things happen all across the Mixing Bowl.
I get peeved about this because Columbus (where I used to live) manages to handle the I-70/71/670/OH315 miniloop around the downtown area there perfectly. Despite the fact that at some points you have three or four exits at the same time, the arrows point straight down the lanes, and are beyond clear. The situation stays confusing, because it is, but you can't get lost there due to poor signage.
View Larger Map
by Jasper on Sep 2, 2011 12:29 pm • link • report
wt all arrows are pointing into a lane.by Jasper on Sep 2, 2011 12:30 pm • link • report
The urbanist in me thinks that it's partially due to the fact that the city itself isn't friendly to driving, and so many people are confounded by the slowdown/speed-up/crawl/gun bizarre nature of driving here.
The Floridian in me thinks that it's because there are a lot of tourists on the roads, and unlike Florida, DC's signage is misleading at best (see any I-395 sign posted south of say Friendship Heights) and non-existent at worst.
The Atlantan in me thinks that it's because the roads and highways are so severely screwy. For example, the Atlanta Perimeter highway is pretty damned oval in shape: while the 'north/south/east/west' thing might be confusing, the near-straight on path is not. Compare that to the Beltway, which is like a freakin' trip through the woods. Too many curves, too many weird angles, too many confusing choices to make. (It's pretty horrific that I'm saying that the region that names every street a variant of Peachtree is easier to navigate than the grid that is DC.)
The DC resident and commuter in me knows better than that, now. There's an unbelievable sense of self-importance in most drivers I encounter on the roads. You crash because nobody will let you in, or as you try and get in, they gun the car! Also, on highways, do they not teach anyone up here the 'left lane is for faster traffic' rule? It's the drivers here that make it suck to drive...or ride on a bus, really. Or attempt to bike or walk in front of an intersection.
by Aaron on Sep 2, 2011 1:16 pm • link • report
And I don't need a study to tell me a primary reason is too many vehicles on too small a road network.
by ceefer66 on Sep 2, 2011 1:35 pm • link • report
by dcinsider on Sep 2, 2011 1:36 pm • link • report
I'm just going to note that we don't know who the person cutting us off is. The guy with the DC plate may have moved here last week, or the guy with the Texas one could be back visiting after living here decades. A lot of these comments extrapolate quite a bit from very little data, much of that anecdotal.
by Tim Krepp on Sep 2, 2011 1:46 pm • link • report
My sense is that there is:
1. too little urban driving here for people to drive appropriately in the city (e.g., people use any DC street as if it were a highway because that's mostly where they drive) and
2. too little high-speed highway driving experience for people to drive appropriately on the freeways around town (e.g., folks who are normally stuck in traffic don't pay attention to things like "left lane is for faster-moving traffic" when they are moving at 65+ mph).
As far as the diversity argument, my sense is that the large number of international drivers makes things much worse but that the variety of drivers from other parts of the US doesn't have as much of an impact.
by DriverAnon on Sep 2, 2011 2:18 pm • link • report
by Justin on Sep 2, 2011 2:48 pm • link • report
by SJE on Sep 2, 2011 3:34 pm • link • report
Dallas drivers are equally bad. When I lived in Nashville, I witnessed more accidents than anywhere I've lived. Many happened outside my window in the early evening, after work, when the busy streets were nearly empty.
LA drivers used to be quite good--back in the early 80s, but the traffic volume has undermined that.
by Rich on Sep 2, 2011 4:41 pm • link • report
This one in particular has thrown me:
http://maps.google.com/?ll=38.794257,-77.137628&spn=0.000008,0.00912&t=h&z=17&vpsrc=6&layer=c&cbll=38.794257,-77.137628&panoid=OwaRqsnaGVrTf7iadPLWDA&cbp=12,0.26,,0,-0.74
I want to go to Rockville via tysons... not even a direction. But later on we see a tiny sign:
http://maps.google.com/?ll=38.794668,-77.138013&spn=0.000001,0.00114&t=h&z=20&vpsrc=6&layer=c&cbll=38.794668,-77.138013&panoid=da6qM98D4lSd6cnwv9jzFg&cbp=12,3.01,,1,1.4
And don't even get me started on the GW pkwy signs between Rosslyn and the airport.
by Aaron on Sep 2, 2011 6:21 pm • link • report
I also learned to drive in a state where that was the rule, however that rule does not exist here. You see that's another part of the problem ... People thinking that because they knew how to drive in their home state that they automatically know how to drive here ....
by Lance on Sep 2, 2011 8:30 pm • link • report
This is why it's a terrible mistake to keep pouring money into road and highway projects. Until local drivers learn to obey the laws at least some of the time, we should divert all transportation funds to the relatively-law-abiding pedestrian, bicycle, and mass transit sectors. After all, we may have the country's worst drivers, but we're a long way from being the worst at walking.
by cminus on Sep 2, 2011 11:21 pm • link • report
Seriously, look at this guy. That takes skillz.
by David C on Sep 2, 2011 11:53 pm • link • report
by Craig on Sep 3, 2011 1:09 am • link • report
by Lance on Sep 3, 2011 8:52 am • link • report
by Lance on Sep 3, 2011 8:56 am • link • report
Some signs of a city with competent, law-abiding drivers is that there are no epidemics of motorists stopping on highways, or of motorists double-parking on busy downtown streets during rush hour, or of motorists pulling into intersections they have obviously no hope of clearing before the light turns red.
I'm not sure whether local motorists don't want to obey the rules or are just too dumb to do so -- on the whole I tend to subscribe to the "never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity" theory -- but, whichever one it is, we shouldn't be rewarding them for it by pouring money into encouraging their irresponsible behavior.
by cminus on Sep 3, 2011 10:24 am • link • report
Everybody loves to talk about how good or bad the drivers are in their home town, and Allstate took advantage of this, crunched some numbers in an arbitrary way, and came up with some controversial conclusions.
It's all over the radio, the TV and the blogs. And everywhere, you hear the company name Allstate. That's what this is about. Not traffic safety. Not a scientific ranking of drivers. It's about getting the corporate name out that.
That's Allstate's stand. (Are you in good hands? ;-)
by Mike S. on Sep 3, 2011 4:49 pm • link • report
The best measure of good vs. bad drivers is actual knowledge of how to drive safely. GMAC Insurance does an annual survey along those lines. DC and Maryland still do very poorly but Virginia does much bteter (and my observations agree).
http://www.nationaldriverstest.com/state-score-averages
by Novanglus on Sep 6, 2011 9:03 am • link • report
by DaveP on Sep 6, 2011 1:13 pm • link • report
While I agree with your bottom line, it's worth keeping in mind that DC actually has among the highest levels of transit use in the country:
http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:USCommutePatterns2006.png
http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2010/10/13/transit-mode-share-trends-looking-steady-rail-appears-to-encourage-non-automobile-commutes/
by Bossi on Sep 6, 2011 1:20 pm • link • report
I still think 14% is a terribly low number! And we're the third highest user of public transit in the country. We have a long way to go to get to NYC's 30% usage but if our city's core population growth continues, we could get to 20% perhaps. Wishful thinking.
by DaveP on Sep 6, 2011 1:58 pm • link • report
We bump up to 18% if you include peds/bikes, and fortunately the data on DC-only is much better at about 50% non-auto :)
I look forward to seeing updated data on the district as well as the metropolitan region, particularly in our post-CaBi world. As much as I love transit: bike/ped mode shares are even more efficient; and per the 2009 data, the DC region was really lagging behind on bikes (14th place at 0.50%). Many of our jurisdictions have made some huge strides since then when it comes to bike & ped infrastructure.
by Bossi on Sep 6, 2011 2:08 pm • link • report
by KBHR AM370 on Sep 6, 2011 4:30 pm • link • report
As opposed to, say, cyborgs?
by JD on Sep 7, 2011 1:39 pm • link • report
by Tony on Sep 8, 2011 10:22 am • link • report
by KBHR AM370 on Sep 8, 2011 10:43 am • link • report
http://www.cheapinsurance123.com/article/car/car-aut-accident-statistics-in-america-1950-2011/ - brief note of US car accidents since the 50s.
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/transportation/motor_vehicle_accidents_and_fatalities.html - from the census bureau
http://www.edgarsnyder.com/car-accident/statistics.html - a quick overview.
by KarenMJohnson on Sep 19, 2011 4:13 pm • link • report
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