Transit
What if Washington never built Metro?
Rail~Volution 2011 marks the first time since 2002 that this conference for all things transit and smart growth has taken place in the nation's capital. When it comes to livability, Washington and neighboring Arlington County have some great stories to share with the rest of the country.
The Washington Metro system keeps hundreds of thousands of cars off the streets a day, and is responsible for hundreds of millions in tax revenues and household savings per year.
At the heart of the region's success is, of course, the Washington Metro, which has shaped development for more than three decades. In fact, so much of the land near Metro stations has been developed that ridership is projected to reach the design capacity of the current system within the next 20 years. The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority is currently mapping out how to respond.
At a panel on Monday, Nat Bottigheimer, an assistant general manager at WMATA, shared some results from an internal study the agency conducted as part of this process. The core question he investigated: "What is it you're actually getting from a transit investment?"
The agency's research and modeling produced some intriguing numbers demonstrating how the creation of Metro On the other side of the coin, there's everything that Metro has prevented from happening. Without Metro…
Bottigheimer's stats brought to mind this graphic of a hypothetical NYC, where the subway's been obliterated and everyone has to drive and park to get around instead. The black squares show the space that would be taken up by parking if everyone who rides the subway into Manhattan's CBD drove to work instead.
Editor's note: Bottigheimer gave an analogue for Washington, DC, saying that the parking needed to serve all the cars that would come in place of Metro could fill the entire area from 12th to 23rd Streets, Constitution to R (including the White House) with 5-story parking decks.
I'd be remiss not to mention these stats from Dennis Leach, director of the transportation division at the Arlington County Department of Environmental Services. In the 1970s, Arlington was losing population and facing a bleak future as Northern Virginia's doormat to the DC core. But local leaders "bet the ranch" on focusing growth near Metro stations, said Leach, and the county is now a thriving example of how walkable, transit-oriented development can make inner suburbs more attractive places to live and work.
Some highlights from Leach's presentation:
Comments
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by Ron on Oct 19, 2011 10:38 am • link • report
by Redline SOS on Oct 19, 2011 10:41 am • link • report
Still necessary.
by RiverCrossing on Oct 19, 2011 10:42 am • link • report
An example I remember reading in the Washington Post about Tysons Corner and it's upcoming urbanization with Metro noted how Tysons has roughly 45 million sf of office and retail now, and an additional 60+ million sf of parking. That kind of spatial inefficiency, where you need to allocate transportation terminal space at more than a 1:1 ratio with all of your actual uses one of those things people just seem to take for granted.
by Alex B. on Oct 19, 2011 10:43 am • link • report
by dal20402 on Oct 19, 2011 10:45 am • link • report
But interesting tidbit. I've heard the argument that transit suffers because it can't build out its own development near metro stops. But according to this:
"Land value near Metro stations generates $2.8 billion annually in property tax revenues. $195 million of that is directly attributable to transit. "
195M is not a small sum, but not enough to make metrorail a cash machine.
I've always thought it would be nice to dig up the National Mall, and put in a giant 5 story underground parking lot. That should take care of the parking problem.
And really - if metrorail wasn't built, nobody else would walk, take the bus, bike, or choose another transit method other than the car? Or even car-sharing?
Arlington has clearly benefit from Metrorail. DC is really starting to, but during the 1970s and 1980s that was not so clear. Alexandria? MoCO? PG county -- I jest.
by charlie on Oct 19, 2011 10:48 am • link • report
I hear this repeated fairly frequently, but what exactly does it mean? Where are the choke points? Do we need more tracks? Shorter headways? More railcars?
Will we still hit capacity in 20 years if we max out rush-hour headways while running only 8-car trains?
On a similar note, how screwed are we if delivery of the 7000-series falls even further behind schedule?
by andrew on Oct 19, 2011 10:58 am • link • report
by engrish_major on Oct 19, 2011 10:59 am • link • report
by RiverCrossing on Oct 19, 2011 11:02 am • link • report
I'm assuming that refers to WMATA's RTSP, looking at long term planning for the system. That study assumes all 8-car trains, operating at minimum headways, with just projected regional growth. So, yes, we still hit capacity under that circumstance.
The choke points of the system are obvious - the interlining between Orange/Blue, Blue/Yellow, and Green/Yellow means that the outer portions of those lines can only achieve a portion of the maximum level of service those tracks can handle. Branching divides frequency. The solution would be to build new subway lines through the core to separate the interlined portions of track.
@Charlie
DC isn't starting to benefit from Metro - the entirety of downtown would've developed very differently if not for Metro. That 195m is a very conservative estimate - without Metro, DC would've had to devote a lot more of its scarce land to low-value uses like parking.
Also, you're pooh-poohing the ROI of metro, but somehow think that a massive parking garage under the Mall would be a good use of funds? Huh?
by Alex B. on Oct 19, 2011 11:06 am • link • report
Having attempted to transfer to the red line during rush hour in Chinatown, I would have thought we reached capacity at least 5 years ago.
by hawkeye on Oct 19, 2011 11:13 am • link • report
Arlington would look like the area around the Pentagon - sprawling parking lots, clogged freeway overpasses and the like.
by John M on Oct 19, 2011 11:15 am • link • report
Obviously, you can't dig up 100%. Let's go with 85%, or 260 acres.
That is 11,325,599 sqaure feet.
At about 62 a square foot for underground construciton, that would be $682M a floor.
Let's say 5 levels. That is a cool 3.5 billion.
That's assuing 2010 dollars. Metro was built in 1976, no? So, that would be .be a $1b in 1976 dollars.
For about 50M square feet in parking space. I have no idea how many spaces that is, but it is a lot.
by charlie on Oct 19, 2011 11:33 am • link • report
The $195M is not the only portion of real estate value that's attributable to transit proximity. This piece is just the portion of real estate value that is uniquely attributable to transit, everything else -- construction cost, baseline land cost, type of zoning, quality of surroundings, etc.
The additional value attributable to transit relates to whether you could even have built that building in that place in the first place WITHOUT transit, and all the efficiencies associated with that kind of agglomeration. That goes well above and beyond the $195 million, and gets into the costs of what the public would have had to spend had it NOT made an investment in transit.
by jnb on Oct 19, 2011 11:33 am • link • report
One of the things that attracted me to DC was the young and vibrant population. I doubt many of the 20- and 30-somethings here now would have even considered living here had DC been an entirely car-dependent metropolis a la Houston or Atlanta. I know I wouldn't have.
by Rebecca on Oct 19, 2011 11:33 am • link • report
Of course it would be a lot of spaces. That wasn't my question - I'm asking whether it would be worth it. I doubt it.
Plus, you'd be asking people to park under the Mall for a job located downtown?
Anyway, take your 50m SF parking structure, assume about 500 sf per space (to account for the space, required auto circulation, etc) and you've got 100,000 spaces. If you're catering to workers, they're occupying that space all day, 9-5. Unless they all start carpooling 3-4 people per car, you won't be matching Metro's capacity to deliver people to a dense area.
Likewise, how are you solving that last mile issue? How would you get all of those cars in and out of the Mall?
by Alex B. on Oct 19, 2011 11:41 am • link • report
by spookiness on Oct 19, 2011 11:42 am • link • report
by DCster on Oct 19, 2011 11:48 am • link • report
by Nate on Oct 19, 2011 11:52 am • link • report
"Likewise, how are you solving that last mile issue? How would you get all of those cars in and out of the Mall?"
Magic Carpet, obviously. Federal workers could walk from there to work.
I think there are something like 200,000 people getting the federal transit benefit. So let's double the size of the Naitonal Mall garage -- 10 stories. Cost in 1976: $2 billion.
Here's my serious point: Most of the success of DC in the last 10 years in macroeconomic. We've had good, decent middle class jobs stay in place because, well, the feds pay decent. A lot of the reasons cited for DC here have far more to do with than metro.
And if anything, I'd say this discussion reveals another flaw. The map is not the terrority. Removing elements is more about building models.
by charlie on Oct 19, 2011 12:04 pm • link • report
What if Metro had been designed with 4 tracks instead of 2? Imagine no delays and express trains! Imagine not having to be single tracking for WMATA to conduct routine maintenance. imagine if Sarles would do his job and make a request of Congress to fix this glaring oversight...imagine the jobs it would create.
Haven't we been over this before? It's not a glaring oversight - only something like 4 transit systems in the whole world have quadruple tracking.
The problem is that maintenance wasn't done on the system. That's what creates the single-tracking situations. Spending 2X as much on the system isn't worth it.
by MLD on Oct 19, 2011 12:08 pm • link • report
A lot of the reasons cited for DC here have far more to do with than metro.
Nevertheless, Metro is a large part of how the region succeeds. I'd argue, too, that another benefit has been that it provides some unity to what would otherwise be a horribly disparate collection of suburbs. And there's been development elsewhere that's not being taken into account - look at the Carlyle area in Alexandria, for instance. I've said this before, but when I was a kid my father and I would go through there on the train and laugh at the idea that they felt a station was necessary at Eisenhower Ave. No longer.
Is the system perfect? *snort* Far from it. But it's been a tremendous boon, working in tandem with other things to make this area so much better than it used to be.
by Ser Amantio di Nicolao on Oct 19, 2011 12:16 pm • link • report
by charlie on Oct 19, 2011 12:28 pm • link • report
by jindc on Oct 19, 2011 12:37 pm • link • report
by Ser Amantio di Nicolao on Oct 19, 2011 12:42 pm • link • report
The parking revenues of this pie in the sky underground parking at the national mall may very well not even cover the operating and the payments on the capital expenditure on such a garage. So I think you're being pretty optimistic that a garage would generate surplus revenue to refurbish the mall.
by Paul on Oct 19, 2011 12:49 pm • link • report
Myself at Silver Spring...even this morning...one train with a problem caused delays down the entire line. Four tracks would alleviate what is a daily problem, whether it be mechanical or a sick passenger or a jumper.
by Redline SOS on Oct 19, 2011 12:50 pm • link • report
I have no idea, and I'm guessing neither do you, about the financials related to such an enterprise. There is an underground parking garage in Rome under the Borghese Gardens, with a large rental car complex. I can imagine something similar under the Mall. With a direct connection to L'Enfant Plaza and the subway, maybe something vital could be created. That's a big maybe.
by jindc on Oct 19, 2011 1:13 pm • link • report
If I'm not mistaken, money from that (along with another Potomac River crossing) and put into Metro.
by Michael on Oct 19, 2011 1:14 pm • link • report
by NikolasM on Oct 19, 2011 1:15 pm • link • report
Having lived here since 1971 let's get this right. The County of Arlington didn't bet the ranch on focusing growth near Metro stations. The free market and capital of those willing to take a risk took care of that. There were really no vast zoning changes and as late as the early 1980's it was not a given growth around the stations would take place. Wonderfully, the free market built a nice walkable community in many areas of Arlington...had it been left to the current Arlington county government...none of this would have taken place. Fortunately a pro-growth strategy was what county residents desired back then.
by Pelham1861 on Oct 19, 2011 1:17 pm • link • report
So build a huge parking garage under the mall, and then connect it to Metro, so that people can clog the roads by coming into DC to park their cars and then take the Metro elsewhere in DC?
Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
by MLD on Oct 19, 2011 1:20 pm • link • report
by Pelham1861 on Oct 19, 2011 1:23 pm • link • report
Something....like a subway?
by andrew on Oct 19, 2011 1:38 pm • link • report
well in my dream world, all metered street parking in downtown and around the Mall is reserved for DC tags only. The tourists and commuters need somewhere else to park...So a huge garage, accessible directly from I-395 and used as an intermodal transit center to move commuters off the downtown streets and onto the Metro makes my travels around DC easier. I don't park downtown much, but its sure a pain when I try to. And if there are fewer cars circling the streets looking for parking, then my walking and biking becomes safer with all the bike lanes and pedestrian only streets we can create.
If you don't want to make a garage friendly to suburban commuters, than make all day parking prohibitively expensive, but keep hourly rates reasonable for tourists (say less than 6 continuous hours?). I'm fine with having a place for tourists to park (and for tour busses to stage) that isn't on surface streets.
Clearly it's not a realistic vision.
by jindc on Oct 19, 2011 1:40 pm • link • report
I know some people would like to say "like Detroit" -- a wasteland of gloom and despair that was led there by King Car -- but the reality is that we would probably look more like Dallas. DC's economic environment is structured, just like Dallas's, around an overwhelming exogenous factor that largely dictates the health of the economy. In DC it's the federal government, in Dallas it's the energy industry.
Now, you can argue day and night, which is better Dallas or DC but the reality is that it's largely a matter of personal preference. Personally, I'd take DC in a hearbeat but obviously, a lot of people like Dallas.
by Falls Church on Oct 19, 2011 2:56 pm • link • report
by Falls Church on Oct 19, 2011 3:04 pm • link • report
by Tina on Oct 19, 2011 3:56 pm • link • report
by c5karl on Oct 19, 2011 4:09 pm • link • report
I think there are something like 200,000 people getting the federal transit benefit. So let's double the size of the Naitonal Mall garage -- 10 stories. Cost in 1976: $2 billion
The cost would more that double to double the depth. The deeper you go, the more expensive it gets.
Here's my serious point: Most of the success of DC in the last 10 years in macroeconomic. We've had good, decent middle class jobs stay in place because, well, the feds pay decent. A lot of the reasons cited for DC here have far more to do with than metro.
I don't think the argument is that Metro is responsible for DC's macro success - but that metro shaped the region into what it is today. That's, frankly, undeniable. Transportation of all kinds shapes development - it always has.
Now, I'd make some arguments about dense areas being more productive and whatnot (not to mention the negative externalities of auto-centric development), but even keeping all that equal, Metro is what enables DC to be so dense.
by Alex B. on Oct 19, 2011 6:41 pm • link • report
by Dan on Oct 19, 2011 6:50 pm • link • report
by Steve O on Oct 19, 2011 8:03 pm • link • report
by jakeod on Oct 19, 2011 8:11 pm • link • report
by jakeod on Oct 19, 2011 8:12 pm • link • report
Many parts of DC outside of Downtown, Columbia Heights, Ft Totten and along Georgia Ave and the occasional scattered new development look the same as they did before the Metro.
by kk on Oct 19, 2011 8:59 pm • link • report
by Phil on Oct 19, 2011 10:49 pm • link • report
That's how NY got their 4 track lines - by demolishing elevateds and replacing them with subways.
by Alex B. on Oct 19, 2011 11:57 pm • link • report
by canterberry on Oct 20, 2011 12:50 am • link • report
by John M on Oct 20, 2011 2:47 pm • link • report
This is not the kind of thing that you can just retrofit onto an existing subway, nor is it as 'simple' (relatively) as adding more tracks to a mainline railway.
by Alex B. on Oct 20, 2011 2:57 pm • link • report
Of course it's "not that simple" but implying that each station along the line would need to be rebuilt is an exaggeration. At those depths (primarily on the red line in NW), a third track could be dug along side or beneath the station without disturbing existing tracks or platforms. Of course, major stations would need to be redone, but if you're trying to build a true "Express" track, simply building within what already exists is a no-brainer.
by John M on Oct 20, 2011 4:10 pm • link • report
I wasn't even thinking about the underground portions - that alone would be cost prohibitive.
Even if it were just the above ground portions, you'd ideally want your express track in the center - so that both directions can access it. That means rebuilding all of the stations, either by moving side platforms further aside, or shifting island platforms over - otherwise you'd need flyovers for every junction.
Which is my point - by definition, adding an express track is not and cannot be "simply building within what already exists." Adding that kind of feature to a system that was never planned for it would be extremely costly with very little benefit. You'd probably end up paying just as much as you would to build an entirely separate subway line that could parallel the Red line.
by Alex B. on Oct 20, 2011 5:27 pm • link • report
Many of the stations have the extra room that is just wasted it could have been used for room for a future third track.
The stations were built with form over function in mind.
by kk on Oct 21, 2011 11:32 pm • link • report
by carletonm on Oct 22, 2011 11:48 am • link • report
by Phil on Oct 22, 2011 3:29 pm • link • report
One key difference - the 6th Ave Line was designed for 4 tracks from the start. They built those original 2 tracks specifically with the option to add more tracks later. That is not the case with Metro.
by Alex B. on Oct 22, 2011 3:30 pm • link • report
I agree that this is not the first priority - it makes a lot more sense to focus on the need for a second east-west tube along M St (or similar) for the Blue line. But the capacity concerns on the Red line seem real to me...
Are there any other plans being noodled around to expand capacity on the Red line, as there are for the Orange / Blue? I understand that the separated Blue line is far from any funding, but at least Metro is planning!
by DavidDuck on Oct 22, 2011 9:45 pm • link • report
by david vartanoff on Oct 23, 2011 1:05 pm • link • report
I also agree instead, Metro should be focusing on building additional "lines" that go West-East/East-West further North of the existing Orange/Blue Line, particularly to serve the M Street, Logan Circle, etc..areas. That would seem to be the smartest at this point.
As for alleviating the Red line...wouldn't the potential new Purple line help somewhat, but providing alternatives for passengers heading from the center out to Maryland? In essence, giving them options as to what line they take (and it what direction) to get North from the city?
by LuvDusty on Oct 24, 2011 1:29 pm • link • report
http://www.roadstothefuture.com/DC_Area_Map_XL.jpg
by Dane on Oct 24, 2011 8:32 pm • link • report
by seattle snow on Nov 2, 2011 6:41 pm • link • report
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