ok, but as long as those young people have 8 roommates and live in a sketchy part of town where you can be expected to get mugged quarterly.

by x on Feb 6, 2012 1:10 pm • link • report

"Now somebody's decided we're not suburbia anymore, we're gonna be urbia. "

If someone had actually decided that, I could see older MoCo residents being quite upset. Thats why communication, careful communication is so important for reinventing our suburbs. People can understand the need for SELECTIVE densification. They get the impression, both from suburb haters, and from haters of urbanism, that the question on the table is urban densities for ALL the non-rural areas. I know I've repeated this many times, but its important. Wholesale denunciations of cars, single family houses, and traditional post war suburbia just gets peoples backs up, and tends to lead to opposition to the selective densification of suburbia that is realistic and desirable.

Speaking of communication, it would be great if we could avoid another round of discussions of the never proposed policy of subsidizing young people to live in MoCo. Please jump instead to the policies you think MoCo should be carrying out that would lead to either lower housing costs, more fun, or both, and lets discuss those.

I would add that MoCo faces a unique challenge of perception compared to NoVa. In NoVa its fairly clear, except to a few die hards, that Arlington is going to urban, and will be successful. In Fairfax its clear there is need to change to address the same kinds of issues MoCo faces - but its also clear that Fairfax will remain a mostly suburban county (outside Tysons and a few other nodes), and Arlington will be the relatively urban counterpart. MoCo effectively includes both an Arlington inside the beltway, AND a Fairfax outside. This I think confuses even MoCo's own residents.

by AWalkerInTheCity on Feb 6, 2012 1:14 pm • link • report

Dan Reed: the most important draw is schools. You did not mention the reason why most people moved to MC to begin with, why it grew so much: for schools that were better than those in DC. Young singles came after, on that coattail.

by goldfish on Feb 6, 2012 1:15 pm • link • report

I wonder what the difference in housing prices (for young adults that means you're likely going to rent instead of buying) is between MoCo and the areas in NoVa that have easy access to transit and Metro. Is it really that much higher in MoCo?

by Fitz on Feb 6, 2012 1:15 pm • link • report

@AWalker wrote:

Wholesale denunciations of cars, single family houses, and traditional post war suburbia just gets peoples backs up, and tends to lead to opposition to the selective densification of suburbia that is realistic and desirable.

Good point. I think the stretch of Rockille Pike north of Grosvenor and around White Flint (maybe almost up to Twinbrook) is a desirable area for greater density.

by Fitz on Feb 6, 2012 1:21 pm • link • report

Is it really that much higher in MoCo?

I doubt it. I'm guessing Dan is just using the area he knows as a lens to look at the problem.

That doesn't mean it's not a problem, though. This is a serious issue for the region, and not just because of millenials. If housing isn't affordable to those entering the workforce, that has some serious economic consequences for our region.

by Alex B. on Feb 6, 2012 1:23 pm • link • report

@AWalkerInTheCity

MoCo effectively includes both an Arlington inside the beltway, AND a Fairfax outside. This I think confuses even MoCo's own residents.

I think that's MoCo's challenge in a nutshell, but throw in a Loudoun at the edges (the Ag Reserve & Clarksburg). We could quibble about what is the "Arlington" part of the county (is it just inside the Beltway? just areas near Metro stations, even ones like Rockville and Shady Grove?) but it presents a tough challenge for any public officials to create a unified message or policy for everyone.

@Alex, Fitz

Housing is expensive everywhere in the region, but I do write about MoCo because it's what I know best.

by dan reed! on Feb 6, 2012 1:29 pm • link • report

Excellent point AWalkerInTheCity. NoVa's jurisdictional divides make it much easier to mentally as well governmentally delineate and demarcate the urban and suburban areas on the Virginia side. Even so, some of Fairfax County's older, denser inner suburban areas like Annandale, Springfield, Seven Corners, Bailey's Crossroads and Route 1 corridor also have problems of disinvestment, aging insufficient roads and infrastructure and a bit of an emerging identity crisis of their own. I don't get the sense that young adults are flocking to those areas either except out of necessity. Urbanization requires planning and Northern Virginia was happy to let Arlington County, City of Alexandria and to a lesser extent City of Falls Church take the lead on infill development and only in very recent times with the Silver line extension and Tyson Corner redevelopment has there been any kind of a paradigm shift away from mono-use sprawl and even there only in the most limited, concentrated manner.

by Mike O on Feb 6, 2012 1:34 pm • link • report

jobs, jobs, jobs jobs.

Nice place to live. Nova - in particular Tysons/Dulles -- has a lot more job openings.

And if you like to live near where you work - -and avoid a terrible beltway commute -- come over to Northern Virginia.

by charlie on Feb 6, 2012 1:36 pm • link • report

Metro doesn't help MoCo's image: Metro stinks everywhere but it's arguably the worst on the Red Line. And the Red Line charges you extra for going past certain points (Silver Spring and Grosvenor) while giving you half the service.

Bethesda is great but it's seen as too expensive to live in; Silver Spring has nightlife but doesn't have the cache of Old Town. Fitz's post about developing "North Bethesda", around White Flint, is a good one.

Here's a reason why a young couple from my office chose to move to Virginia: Maryland doesn't have as many state colleges as Virginia. I don't know if that's accurate but if it's not, it's something that the State of Maryland should correct.

by bmfc1 on Feb 6, 2012 1:57 pm • link • report

yes mike O, but I dont think the inner beltway parts of FFX (plus Tysons and Dunn Loring) really overwhelm FFX cty citizens as much - there are of course exceptions, and folks in fairfax who quiver at urbanization with the best antiurbanist paranoids, but I think they still get that most of FFX, including several areas inside the beltway, will stay suburban. MoCo has its close in to DC areas (like Arlington) AND its Rockville Pike candidates for urbanization (which I guess are more like the parts of FFX that are up for densification) and I think perhaps its easier in MoCo to misread the change as a call for densification everywhere.

by AWalkerInTheCity on Feb 6, 2012 2:02 pm • link • report

I think MoCo's main issue is that it is mainly known as a place to raise a family or where immigrants moving to the region set up shop. As a member of generation Y I have met alot of new comers my age moving to the region and that is their main perception of MoCo. Arlington & DC have become firmly established as the go to spot for generation y in the region. MoCo isnt even on our radar unless you have to live out there for work. Even the urban areas in the county which are basically only Silver Spring, Bethesda, & Rockville seem to overly cater to moms pushing strollers and the 40+ crowd. This isnt exactly what younger people are looking for when they choose a place to live when they are expecting night life & a hip neighborhood within walking distance of their homes or metro station. If I were a county official and I were looking to attract the younger generation I would spend a day or 2 on 14th st between U & P streets then go over to Clarendon and see how those areas vibe/architecture/establishments attract the generation y crowd in droves despite being very expensive. That is the level competition that MoCo will have to compete with and out do in order to win the next generation of young proffesionals. Bethesda & Rockville currently arent real competition. Maybe the redevelopment of Whiteflint & Rockville pike will lead to an urban corridor that can compete with 14th st or the Rosslyn Ballston corridor. But you will need to convince alot of the older generation leaders in the county that more bars & nightlife options will not lead to anarchy but will actually create a rich urban neighborhood. Something generation y is looking for.

by Sam on Feb 6, 2012 2:03 pm • link • report

Anyone know how other jurisdictions compare over the past 10 years? My impression is DC got younger but I don't have any empirical data to back that up.

I think the points others brought up about MoCo's size and diversity of density is a good point. My guess would be places like Bethesda and Silver Spring track comparably to DC, but the upcounty area skews the trends older. If I'm wrong (and Bethesda and Silver Spring are getting older) then that would raise the question on as to why. At least in my mind Bethesda and Silver Spring aren't drastically different than Arlington or many DC neighborhoods.

by Steven Yates on Feb 6, 2012 2:20 pm • link • report

This is a problem. Montgomery County thrived because of the Baby Boomers, who found life so good here that they never left.

But isn't that the way of the world? It wasn't the established, already set folks who left New England to settle first the Genesse Valley of New York State ... and then the upper northwest (aka Indiana, Illinois, etc) ... followed by the west (aka St Louis) and then the west coast. It's always been those who couldn't afford to get everything they wanted in their well established places who "moved on" to turn 'nothing' into 'something'. Same thing happened when America itself got settled.

Things are just as they should be in MoCo. You've got Frederick County, and lots of other places that need the young blood to help them become just like MoCo.

And one day, that 'young blood' will too be old (God willing) and get to sit back and enjoy what they built.

by Lance on Feb 6, 2012 2:27 pm • link • report

MoCo's problem definitely isn't with Bethesda and downtown Silver Spring carrying their weight; the problem is the list of areas in MoCo that are worth anything to Millennials basically starts and stops there.

by jag on Feb 6, 2012 2:35 pm • link • report

Our rent just went up $187 dollars to $1500 for a one bedroom. See ya MoCo.

by Redline SOS on Feb 6, 2012 2:45 pm • link • report

I was going to give some thoughts on why this is happening, but before doing that actually checked the numbers. I don't have a clue what the source for Dan Reed's "According to the Planning Department, Montgomery County has 15% fewer adults between the ages of 15 and 24 than we did in 2000," but that's absolutely not what the US Census Data shows:
Ages 15-19 2000: 51,535
Ages 15-19 2010: 59,862
Ages 20-24 2000: 43,684
Ages 20-24 2010: 54,031

Even the percentages of each of those ages groups to the total county population increases from 2000 to 2010.
Assuming these links work, you can see the data yourself at:
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1&prodType=table

Unless I'm really confused here, I think this post needs a major correction or a clear citation of it's numbers.

by Dan H on Feb 6, 2012 2:47 pm • link • report

I'd be perfectly willing to move out to the frontier of Frederick county like the pioneers of old but while the pioneers got their land at just the cost of getting out there and then running off whatever native peoples who happened to already live there things are slightly different now and maybe we can't rely on the whole "just move out to where its cheaper" because of the limits of our transportation network/there's not enough time in the day.

by X on Feb 6, 2012 2:49 pm • link • report

Charlie hit the nail on the head: jobs, jobs, jobs. People follow jobs, particulary young, mobile people. Middle aged people with families are less likely to move if their job does due to community connections like schools, etc. A young 20-something can pick up an move. A long-term trend in the area has been NoVA creating a larger share of metro area jobs. Yes, planning and an interesting environment area helpful, but Bethesda and SS are not so lacking in that regard as to drive off millenials. What MoCo is missing is job creation.

by The Prophet on Feb 6, 2012 2:50 pm • link • report

RedlineSOS, that sucks - have you checked out Silver Spring Towers (or maybe that's where you currently live and they're now pushing up prices after the renovation...). I enjoyed it a lot and it was the most reasonably priced unit I could find in downtown Silver Spring (moved out recently because I purchased a condo in Silver Spring).

http://www.southernmanagement.com/silver-spring-towers/

by jag on Feb 6, 2012 2:51 pm • link • report

(As a middle-aged member of Generation X, I am now going to point out that the Millennials are not going to be 25 forever. By which I don't mean that they will all suddenly wake up one morning with a spouse and children and an overwhelming desire to fulfill their manifest destiny on the Frederick County frontier, mowing their lawn and driving SUVs to soccer practice. Nonetheless, it's been my experience that people do get older with time, and people's priorities often change as they age.)

by Miriam on Feb 6, 2012 2:55 pm • link • report

jag, that list will expand to include White Flint and Wheaton too. Your point is very valid, though.

Fitz, echoing Alex's response, the housing prices are equally bad everywhere in the region in places that Millenials are willing to pay money to rent or buy in. My experience trying to find a room in a group house to rent back in 2007 mirrors the Post writer's story. It has only gotten worse since 2007 in the wake of the crash as fewer people qualify for first-time loans and there are fewer condos on the market.

Someone else mentioned that there are a lot of places in all regional jurisdictions, including Montgomery, that have no amenities or fixed-rail transit in walking distance and are therefore worthless to most millenials. I have spent lots of time trying to convey that message to many people. If you want the next generation to pay rent/mortgage money to live in your jurisdiction, you have to supply they product they want.

Our region is projected to add jobs. We need more housing that young workers see as valuable and worth their living and money if we don't want economic stagnation.

by Cavan on Feb 6, 2012 2:55 pm • link • report

@Cavan "If you want the next generation to pay rent/mortgage money to live in your jurisdiction, you have to supply they product they want.

But that's the point. It's not a case of those who are settled and doing okay 'wanting' (and thus being asked to foot the bill) to have the next generation living amoung them. It's the next generation fighting/striving for their opportunities. Most generations in the past have found that buying a car ... even a junker ... fixed the access problem you noted ..

by Lance on Feb 6, 2012 3:38 pm • link • report

@charlie ....you do make a strong point NoVa has been leading to region by wide margin in the creation of high quality jobs that college grads look for. This could explain the rise in population of young professionals in Arlington & Fairfax. While MoCo has been pretty much stagnant in both areas

by mike on Feb 6, 2012 3:43 pm • link • report

@Cavan,

I rented a condo in Arlington in 2010 and my experience could not have been more polar opposite than the Post's story as far as the ease in finding a place.

by Fitz on Feb 6, 2012 3:52 pm • link • report

@Charlie, You bring to light something that most people on here don't realize. i.e., That NoVa is the job creation center of the area. I work with lots of Millenials, and yeah there are some who say 'I wish I could afford to live in DC' ... and many who actually do live in places like Rosslyn and other more urbanized areas than western Fairfax area I work in. However, there are even more who say they like to come in to the urban areas occasionally ... but would never want to live there ... primarily because of the lack of parking.

by Lance on Feb 6, 2012 3:55 pm • link • report

@Lance, while parking availability is an issue in some popular DC neighborhoods (but certainly not all of them), I think it's rarely a huge deal in the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor. I lived there for six years in three different places, and found that parking was more or less always available. Might have to pay $100-$150 for a reserved space if you're in a big building, but the supply itself never seemed to be an issue. You can tell your millenial underlings to at least come that far in :)

by worthing on Feb 6, 2012 4:32 pm • link • report

@Lance
"It's not a case of those who are settled and doing okay 'wanting' (and thus being asked to foot the bill) to have the next generation living amoung them."

The county council isn't concerned with attracting Gen Y for any reason other than the fact that it's an economic imperative. Boomers can't support the county when they're all sitting around collecting social security. My 80 year old NIMBY neighbor might not understand that, but most educated people do.

by jag on Feb 6, 2012 5:07 pm • link • report

If an area is desirable, market forces will always result in there being a high cost of housing, and no amount of social engineering is going to change that. So here's an idea: build a $2 billion light rail that can transport poor people to work in the high cost areas they cannot afford to live in, and then transport them back to their lower income neighborhoods at the end of the day. Oh wait, they already thought of that-- the Purple Line.

by BS_Dawg on Feb 6, 2012 5:07 pm • link • report

I've heard about younger people moving out of Montgomery County and into Arlington and D.C. because of the high MoCo income taxes. This seems to also be why I am reading about Va. raiding companies from Md. to Va. -- lower taxes which is attracting jobs which is attracting people, young and old, who perhaps use that to justify paying more to live in urban core and be able to eat out, shop, etc...

Just a thought -- nothing scientific about that statement.

by Transport. on Feb 6, 2012 5:29 pm • link • report

@Lance
But that's the point. It's not a case of those who are settled and doing okay 'wanting' (and thus being asked to foot the bill) to have the next generation living amoung them. It's the next generation fighting/striving for their opportunities. Most generations in the past have found that buying a car ... even a junker ... fixed the access problem you noted ..

Key phrase here is "in the past"! We have built our urban areas to the point where going further and further out is no longer feasible. We cannot afford the infrastructure to have people commute long distances each day. We overbuilt the interstate highway system and the previous generations benefited from that extra capacity; now, we don't collect enough revenue to keep our current infrastructure in good repair much less add new capacity.

Beyond that, surveys are showing that a larger percentage of young people want to live in dense urban areas and use mass transit compared to young people before them. See the renewed interest in improving city schools and government - people want those services to improve so they don't have to move if/when they have children.

by MLD on Feb 6, 2012 5:35 pm • link • report

@MLD

Plus, it's not like this is just some preference for walking and transit: owning a car is expensive.

@BS_Dawg

Good point on the purple line. The key is to expand the supply of transit-oriented neighborhoods. Two basic ways to do that - develop more space in existing well-served areas, and expand the transit network to better serve areas that currently lack those connections.

Those two broad strategies should go hand in hand.

by Alex B. on Feb 6, 2012 5:39 pm • link • report

@ Transport.:

I think you've hit one of the nails on the head - taxes. I'm nowhere near looking for a place of my own, but insofar as I'm considering the point, I'd much rather remain on the Virginia side of the river due to the taxation issue. To some degree, with me, it's ideological...but I'm sure that it factors into the monetary consideration, to some degree at least.

@ bmfc1: I've heard empirical evidence that it's true - Virginia's state schools are often a consideration. For the sheer number of them, if nothing else. Don't get me wrong - UMD-CP is a fine school. But there's a lot of variety in Virginia's state schools, which is a great strength.

by Ser Amantio di Nicolao on Feb 6, 2012 5:50 pm • link • report

@jag "Boomers can't support the county when they're all sitting around collecting social security. My 80 year old NIMBY neighbor might not understand that, but most educated people do.

While there may be a small component of state income taxes in Virginia that gets 'kept' by the counties/cities, most educated people realize that Richmond decides how to parcel out the revenues via expenditures and funding. Additionally, you're assumption that the 80 year old is somehow paying less in income tax than the just out of college crowd is probably not a good one ... especially in this metropolitan area where income from not only pensions but savings and investments like matches or even surpasses those with just out of college salaries.

by Lance on Feb 6, 2012 8:37 pm • link • report

And if you were referring to MD, same scenario applies there ... just substitute Annapolis for Richmond.

by Lance on Feb 6, 2012 8:38 pm • link • report

@Dan h - the video embedded in the article says "households 15 - 24" declined because more of them were living with their parents or in group homes. Probably due to the economy as much as anything.

@ Dan reed - you should correct the article to reflect household formation rather than young people fleeing MoCo.

by jd on Feb 6, 2012 8:50 pm • link • report

@jd, I finally got to watch part of the video. You're write that it's talking about households, not people. People in these age groups have clearly increased in the county over the last decade (probably at an even greater rate in the county's more transit friendly areas than Leisure World). More people in group homes or with their parents might not be a good trend, but that's very different from a generation not moving to the area. All the people arguing and tearing out hair out over inaccurate information is ridiculous. I really hope @Dan Reed publishes a correction.

I couldn't finish watching the video because it was terrible. There were a few typos like writing "increased" and showing numbers decreasing. The video is a good idea for getting info out and it's visually ok, but the execution is an embarrassment for the county. If they were serious about educating, they would at least include the data sources at some clear location on the vimeo page. Given the typos & unclear statements, I simply don't trust the information.

by Dan H on Feb 7, 2012 10:00 am • link • report

Let me be honest: the job thing in Northern Virginia is more observation than hard data. I've tried to quantify it before. Just looking at the largest employers isn't very helpful. Given how many of the new jobs in the area are inteligence/security/defense related Northern Virginia has obvious advantages.

@Lance; I think you are right there are a lot of young people, even in this area, who are very car dependant. However, I think you're missing a major reason for people wanting the "car-free" lifestyle which is getting drunk. Liviing in a DC or Arlington means stumbling home and an relatively easy cab ride. Living in the outer suburbs means a high risk of a DUI.

the best players I've seen in this town either have a large enough place for several females to crash -- because they don't want to spend 30-40 minutes driving home, and the girls feel safe in numbers -- or are friends with a hotel which can give them a last minute room for afterparties.

by charlie on Feb 7, 2012 10:10 am • link • report

@Dan H, jd

I'm working on it. I don't think the Planning Department isn't a trustworthy source as they're working from Census data, but perhaps there's been a misunderstanding on my part. I'll let you know what I find.

by dan reed! on Feb 7, 2012 11:55 am • link • report

@dan reed!
I don't think the planning department itself is untrustworthy. I think they are presenting a slew of numbers of many different surveys without any links explaining where they are from. Not including references or context is untrustworthy. I think they spent too much time making a pretty video and too little time thinking about the context & error checking.

I just checked and my Census links from my earlier comment and they don't work. It seems like one can't permalink to their site.
To generate the charts yourself, go to:
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml
Click "Geographies" on the left side.
Type "Montgomery County, Maryland" into the geography search & add it.
Click on the "Topics" tab on the left. If you search for "DP-1" you'll be able to pull up both the 2000 and 2010 data to make your own chart.
Other interesting data charts are: QT-P2, which gives you the populations by individual years
Hope this helps

by Dan H on Feb 7, 2012 12:22 pm • link • report

The county has not made the types of public invetment in streets and sidwalks and greens and LID infrastucture in it urbanizing areas to make them attractive to young people. This is especially true in Silver Spring. The new 'Mall" in downtown silver spring is cheap and commercial in appearnce....there was no or very bad civic leadership there. It just says backward and bad taste.

by Ed Hamm on Feb 7, 2012 2:49 pm • link • report

Okay, get your handkerchiefs out for this one.

I am a Millennial, and I grew up in Silver Spring. Yes, it -as well as the whole area- is more interesting than it was before, but it is also a lot more expensive now. The County has been doing some very questionable things as of recent, which is a big deterrent for me. The biggest one would be approving the ICC, building it, but ignoring the Purple Line. They even used stimulus funds intended for transit to hasten the construction. I do not live anywhere near the ICC, but the three times I have been on it, it was deserted during rush hour.

I cannot afford MoCo, not that I want to live here. Yeah, I am still living with the folks. Roommates are definitely an option, but I still could not afford it without sharing a single bedroom with like 3 people. I actually work for the County, getting paid what I believe to be a substandard wage. Word of advice to any young readers: do not major in a liberal art.

Dan, a lot of people on your other post that has hundreds of comments talked about how they just took the time and moved up in the world one step at a time. That is what I and every friend I have would like to do actually. Sadly, I have not been able to get better, more relevant work, and it has been the same story for many friends. And since the County is in a pay freeze, I have yet to get a raise, and probably will not for years if I stay. Great prospects.

So what am I doing about this? Still applying, working on "artistic" ventures, reading a lot, working out, and hoping I get an acceptance letter from one of the graduate schools I applied for, which will probably set my finances back for years, but get me into my desired field. I will be studying urban planning, is that ironic? I had no idea one could even focus on that academically until I was a senior.

Wait, I am not done. I apologize for bringing this back up, but the only self-entitled millennial's are the ones on Smith Point's member list, AKA the ones that are born rich. I am aware that I made a mistake as far as choosing an academic field employers probably laugh at, but does that mean I do not deserve to make a wage that gets me out of my parents house?

As far as fixing MoCo's decrease in youth, there are several ways, but each one has a drawback. My favorite is to boycott the real estate industry, and either live at home, or be homeless. Eventually, property owners will get desperate and have no choice but to lower rents until people start moving back in. Rent would eventually increase, but hopefully some of those pesky baby boomers will be worm food by then, thus creating more housing :P.

by Bort on Feb 7, 2012 3:05 pm • link • report

When you consider all the taxes Virginia charges including the food tax and car tax, there is very little differences in overall taxes between Maryland and Virginia. MoCo and NoVa provide a similar level of services, you have to pay for those services somehow. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying.

Germantown has become quite a hotspot for young professionals. You cant get much more suburban than that. The affordable townhouses, good schools, I270 access and shopping make it attractive to young people as much as Bethesda or Arlington

by Cyrus on Feb 7, 2012 11:22 pm • link • report

With no young professionals moving in and and aging boomers in big houses the montgomery counties future is demographically challenged. Much smaller families and no young professionals will eventually drive housing prices down in the county. Houses will be split up and divided into apaprtments for lower income renters. Homes will deteriorate.....and taxes will fall. The future is Europe....rich city centers, poor suburbs....the complete failure of county planning and leadership.....just being cheap.

by Ed Hamm on Feb 9, 2012 10:33 am • link • report