3 things,

1. Re: the Mayor defending CABI. Good for him, I noticed that in DDOT's tweet they asked about commuting vs. recreation but that's a little blunt as well. If I use the system as intended (to go places, not necessarily work) rather than strictly joyriding then That's replacing a trip or creating a new one.

2. RE: getting rid of the ACS. Funny how those who say gov't should be run like a business do vote for something like this which is utterly stupid. What business would stop measuring their customer base?

3. Silver line. So much cognitive dissonance in that story among those quoted. You fly by a VDOT guy standing around. Obviously we don't need a rail connection for one of the largest commercial spaces in the country and one of the busiest airports. And yes, tell me how renaming a bridge will actually help build anything significant.

by X on May 11, 2012 10:00 am • link • report

It actually seems to me that 32% of all Virginians is a lot for a project only in NoVa. If someone said, is Norfolk Tide light rail a top priority, how many Fairfax residents, even ones who care about transit, would say yes? How many would say that a freeway project around Blacksburg is a priority?

It seems like not a big deal that most people far away from a transportation facility, who might never use it, don't think it's that important. What do the people of Texas think about it? They might be MORE likely to take it if they use it to get from Dulles to other places, than people in the rest of Virginia who will likely drive if/when they go to the region.

by David Alpert on May 11, 2012 10:05 am • link • report

Only 32% of Virginians believe the Silver Line is important to the state compared to 67% of Northern Virginians, according to a transportation priority survey.

Interesting numbers. NoVA makes up about a third of the population of VA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Virginia). If only 67% of NoVans want the Silver line, that means that there are still a good that leaves 1/9th of VAns not living on NoVa interested in the Silver Line (or 1/6th of non-NoVa VAns). With about 8 million VAns, that means that about 900k VAns outside NoVA want the Silver Line. That's impressive.

Just ask yourself how much you care about some infrastructure project in Hampton Roads.

The survey also showed that most of Virginia does not favor tax hikes.

Nobody likes unspecified tax hikes. Tax hikes become a lot more palatable when coupled to actual choices. "Would you like to close this school or pay more taxes?" gets a lot more positive response than "Would you like to pay more taxes?"

by Jasper on May 11, 2012 10:09 am • link • report

Mayor Gray is focused! Its been like a 180 degree change with this guy on transit issues. Keep it up!

by H Street Landlord on May 11, 2012 10:10 am • link • report

I think the Silver line survey shows how sympathetic many people are about the traffic and the transportation problems in NoVA. It is surprising and impressive that a significant fraction in e.g., Roanoke think a small part of their money should be spent so far away. If only we in DC could return the favor, and treat those from the hinterlands with similar respect for their needs and choices.

by goldfish on May 11, 2012 10:16 am • link • report

@ Twitter exchange, Tom Elliot writes:Infrastructure = roads, not cars.

Infrastructure is not roads alone.

Infrastructure is roads, rails, sidewalks, bike lanes, airports, water management, sewer lines, power lines (&plants), internet, bridges, tunnels, parks, dams, dikes, flood planes, etc.

I am sure Tom Elliot would cry like a little baby if the government stopped dealing with all infrastructure and only built roads.

by Jasper on May 11, 2012 10:17 am • link • report

And have any specific state-wide tax hikes been proposed. Especially ones focused just on the Silver Line? Driving through Loudoun the other day I saw signs that said "Don't tax me for Metro" and while that's unfortunate overall I don't recall the county making any serious proposal yet to raise taxes to pay for their initial cost of their silver line stations.

And I'm an outlier but I care about light rail in norfolk. One day before I'm old I'd like to be able to travel from Arlington to Va. beach without having to use a car. That's possible based on current plans.

by X on May 11, 2012 10:18 am • link • report

Hey, wait a second. Transit isn't supposed to be elastic, so why are high fares making people take the bus?

by charlie on May 11, 2012 10:19 am • link • report

@ goldfish:If only we in DC could return the favor, and treat those from the hinterlands with similar respect for their needs and choices.

We do. They get more of our tax dollars than we do. And they're using it to upgrade US-220 to I-73 (or Future-73 if you're a road-nerd).

by Jasper on May 11, 2012 10:21 am • link • report

@goldfish

I live in NoVa, and I've not heard anyone complain about the Tide light rail. We complain about the total imbalance of funds, and about VDOT interference in local planning issues.

@charlie - who said transit demand is perfectly price inelastic? Especially in the case of one transit mode vs another? There are plenty of places in the region, esp in DC, where metro rail provides a meager time savings over metro bus - for those trips it makes perfect sense that a fare increase on metro rail will lead to mode switching to bus.

by AWalkerInTheCity on May 11, 2012 10:30 am • link • report

@charlie: as I've explained before, the demand does react to price, it just doesn't react in excess of proportional to price, which is what "elastic" means.

10% increase in fare = less than 10% reduction in riders.

by Michael Perkins on May 11, 2012 10:35 am • link • report

@Mperkins; hmm. no.

1) Long term vs short term

2) unemployment

3) better measurement now that they are cutting the transfer windows and people throwing fake coins in.

by charlie on May 11, 2012 10:37 am • link • report

WaPo should ask the same question (should we build...) about widening I-66. I suspect widening I-66 would have much wider support.

Whatever way you try to spin the figures from this poll, no politician is going to stick his neck out for Silver Line Phase II at this point. It's on life support right now.

by renegade09 on May 11, 2012 10:42 am • link • report

you think all those folks in rural southside VA are for widening I66????

In NoVa, widening I66 would have more support in PWC and Fauq Counties, MUCH less support in Arlington, less support in Loudoun, more in western FFX, less in northern FFX (tysons to Herndon). Southern FFX and Alex directly impacted by neither, but Im guessing more support for the Silver line than the highway widening.
Most of the transit foes around here are antispending in general, so you wouldn't pick up that many of them, outside of the areas directly benefiting from an I66 widening.

by AWalkerInTheCity on May 11, 2012 10:47 am • link • report

@charlie

Nothing in your comment makes any sense.

Nobody has ever said that transit fares aren't elastic, just that ridership drops do not usually lead to drops in revenue.

1) Long term vs short term What?
2) unemployment What about it?
3) better measurement now that they are cutting the transfer windows and people throwing fake coins in.
Paper transfers were eliminated more than three years ago, so probably we shouldn't be seeing an effect from going to smartrip any more.

by MLD on May 11, 2012 10:54 am • link • report

just that ridership drops do not usually lead to drops in revenue.

Should be:
just that ridership drops due to fare increases do not usually lead to drops in revenue.

by MLD on May 11, 2012 10:57 am • link • report

I think I66 widening would have more support statewide just because that's the default solution to any transportation problem for most areas in the country, not just Va.

by x on May 11, 2012 11:04 am • link • report

@ renegade09:WaPo should ask the same question (should we build...) about widening I-66. I suspect widening I-66 would have much wider support.

Except that is has little support locally.

Whatever way you try to spin the figures from this poll, no politician is going to stick his neck out for Silver Line Phase II at this point. It's on life support right now.

Ehm, incorrect absolute statement. The Fairfax County Board unanimously stuck our their necks. You know, that board representing 1/6th of the Commonwealth's population. Our Congressional and state representatives also still support the project, as well as other extensions to the blue and yellow lines.

by Jasper on May 11, 2012 11:07 am • link • report

@Jasper (& @AWitC): They get more of our tax dollars than we do. And they're using it to upgrade US-220 to I-73

That is what my point was.

Taxes from urban areas have always subsidized transportation in rural areas. That is why cities exist, because the shorter distance enable greater mobility for commerce. But cities need the goods from the hinterlands, and hence need to provide for its transport. So to complain that "we are not getting our fair share" is NOT recognizing the basic imbalance between the city and the country.

Ergo, you have not recognizing the needs of rural areas. They will always get more transportation dollars, and they deserve it.

by goldfish on May 11, 2012 11:17 am • link • report

@ goldfish:Ergo, you have not recognizing the needs of rural areas. They will always get more transportation dollars, and they deserve it.

I don't believe that relates to anything I said.

Also, it would be nice if they'd occasionally say "Thank you" for those dollars, regardless of whether they deserve it.

by Jasper on May 11, 2012 11:24 am • link • report

How can any discussion of rail ridership not begin with the debilitating (for users of the system) weekend track repairs. That is a very strong variable in usage.

by H Street Landlord on May 11, 2012 11:28 am • link • report

"But cities need the goods from the hinterlands, and hence need to provide for its transport. "

NoVas hinterland, in terms of goods, is across the USA and the world. Goods movement is advanced by investments in ports, rail, and key truck corridors (which in VA includes I81, thought thats more of help to cities like NY and philly than to NoVa) I don't know that any of the improvements under discussion in rest of Va are really related to key freight corridors that would impact NoVa

by AWalkerInTheCity on May 11, 2012 11:36 am • link • report

@AWitC: you need to drill down much further, to simple road improvement project like adding a left turn lane at some intersection in SW VA, to improve the flow of goods and people in that area. Cities benefits from that, because lowering transportation costs there (which are proportionally higher) lowers the costs of stuff we buy here in town. Every little bit helps.

Cities have always, and will always subsidize transportation in the country, and it is not valid to say "they are getting more than what they pay." Northern VA is urbanized, and hence must recognize that it never will get back what it pays.

by goldfish on May 11, 2012 11:47 am • link • report

@MLD; let me spoon feed it for you.

You've got to measure transit elasticty (well, almost everything) over the long term vs the short term. Short term (peak of peak) just isn't enough to see a change. We're seeing that with gas prices now too in the US.

Transfer window - sorry, I was talking about circulator killing their 3 hour window and the ability to daisy chain rides. You're also seeing the slow death of bus passes.

by charlie on May 11, 2012 11:54 am • link • report

re: Tom Eliot and infrastructure. I think people get confused about what CaBi is, and that might be the fault of those who support it. What it is not, is zipcar for bikes. Zipcar is a business that is run to make a profit. CaBi, though, is public transit via bicycle. It is a public service, run at a loss that serves a community need. So it is more like WMATA. Maybe Eliot doesn't think of train sets and buses as infrastructure, but from a funding standpoint they're basically the same. And bikes are more like buses.

Regardless, certainly the CaBi kiosks are infrastructure.

by David C on May 11, 2012 11:55 am • link • report

@Jasper,
I mention I-66 in response to the idea from you and Alpert that people in southern Virginia are skeptical about funding infrastructure projects in Northern Virginia. I don't think that's right. I think they are specifically against this particular project, but they would support I-66 widening.

It's true that Fairfax is against I-66 widening and pro-Silver Line. But I don't think Fairfax is going to get its way in either case. I see political will to build Phase II eroding in the face of these terrible poll numbers.

by renegade09 on May 11, 2012 12:11 pm • link • report

"It's true that Fairfax is against I-66 widening and pro-Silver Line. But I don't think Fairfax is going to get its way in either case. I see political will to build Phase II eroding in the face of these terrible poll numbers."

I think you are flat out wrong that folks in rest of virginia are supportive of HIGHWAY projects in NoVa. Thats simply not been the experience of the last 10 years.

This poll says NOTHING about support in Loudoun county, which is key. If loudoun supports, I dont think the reluctance of the McDonnel admin matters much. And I dont think this says anything about support in rest of virginia that they didnt already know.

by AWalkerInTheCIty on May 11, 2012 12:24 pm • link • report

@AWalker
It's a bit strong to say the poll says 'NOTHING' about Loudon. 'North Virginia exurbs' polled against the Silver Line 50-48. Presumably Loudon factored into that. As for highways, maybe you're right, but I'd love to see some data.

by renegade09 on May 11, 2012 12:40 pm • link • report

I didnt see a definition of "exurbs" but I presume that includes PWC and Fauqier and Stafford, where I'm guessing there is less support for the silver line than in Loudoun

by AWalkerInTheCity on May 11, 2012 12:48 pm • link • report

@ renegage09:It's true that Fairfax is against I-66 widening and pro-Silver Line. But I don't think Fairfax is going to get its way in either case. I see political will to build Phase II eroding in the face of these terrible poll numbers.

You are confusing me. I-66 has been widened west of the Beltway in Fairfax and PW County (I am not sure if the end of the widening is in PW or Fauquier). It is Arlington which is against the widening of I-66 in Arlington itself.

Also, Fairfax County is getting its way with the Silver Line. Phase I is being built. The eroding political will is not very relevant, because the BOS has already pronounced its full support for phase II.

You are confusing your desires with reality.

And while I can not predict the future, I believe phase II will be built. As others have pointed out, there is just a (pathetic) game of poker being played about part of the payment. Fairfax, MWAA, DC and MD are on board. The question is whether the remaining part will be paid by VA or by DTR users.

by Jasper on May 11, 2012 12:51 pm • link • report

@charlie, buses are transit.

by Tina on May 11, 2012 1:08 pm • link • report

Whatever has gotten into Mayor Gray lately, I like it A LOT. I was reminiscing with friends last night about how, when I met his son, he didn't like me very much...basically told me I was a nitwit because I dared disagree with him that bike lanes and Zipcar were a waste of money/space/public resources (like road/parking space for CARS! Individually-owned CARS!). At the time, I felt that his statements accurately reflected the position of the Mayor's office.

But something has changed. It gives me great hope that these will not be "lost years" for DC.

by Ms. D on May 11, 2012 1:16 pm • link • report

My point is that it's unwise to sweep these poll numbers under the rug on the supposition that 'people only support infrastructure projects in their own areas'. My suggestion about polling I-66 widening as well was just to test whether that particular concept is true: if it was, people outside of Northern Virginia ought to oppose I-66 widening in Arlington just as much as they oppose Phase II. That would enable us to put the data in context.

But yeah, I do oppose Phase II, because it will induce sprawl, overload a creaking metrorail system (esp Rosslyn tunnel) and increase demand for a new Potomac crossing.

by renegade09 on May 11, 2012 1:26 pm • link • report

Just wanted to add my 2 cents. The Post article, especially the headline was ridiculously skewed. The point about hte politics is well-taken -- if a strong majority of Virginians in the districts outside NoVA aren't much interested in the Silver Line, ti's a tough sell in the Legislature.

Yet, that's what leadership is about. If you asked Northern Virginians whether they thought it would be important to widen I-81, you'd get a lot of blank stares. Doesn't mean such a project shouldn't get funding.

The big majorities in Northern Virginia who think the extension is very important is pretty compelling about its utility. Anyone living west or south of Dulles isn't likely to benefit from the line. They won't use it, and it won't even affect traffic on their trips to Dulles, if they ever use the airport. In fact, the majorities in favor of the project within NoVA are pretty impressive. More so, because we could expect that DC residents and maybe even Marylanders would be even more interested in the extension than Virginians for whom driving there isn't as much of a hassle.

For the Post to make a big deal about a majority of Virginians not thinking this is a priority, without making those points is disingenuous, at best. What the poll really showed is what the Post acknowledged in the headline on the jump page -- that opinion is divided based on region.

It might be a tough sell, but real leaders would take on the challenge because this poll actually shows how badly needed the project is.

by Fischy (Ed F.) on May 12, 2012 4:00 pm • link • report