ATTN: Montgomery County,

We all understand that transportation/development is a chicken/egg problem. But if you have the egg then lay it.

by X on Jun 1, 2012 8:42 am • link • report

I saw a ghost bus just this weekend. It was practically tipping over, and the rear wheels tracked about 10 inches off the front. This action may very well save lives.

by Crickey7 on Jun 1, 2012 8:55 am • link • report

RE: MoCo BRT

Ahh, my industry's chicken/egg problem... what comes first: the infrastructure or the development?

by Bossi on Jun 1, 2012 9:05 am • link • report

oops... X just said the exact same thing! :P

by Bossi on Jun 1, 2012 9:05 am • link • report

Red Line was almost really red

I would love if metro did more with the color of the lines, especially considering the gruesome grey background of most stations. Why are there no lines of LEDs opposite of the platform in the color of the next train? Why is the final destination not projects in enormous letters in the color of the train opposite of the platform? Why are the warning lights under the platforms not in the color of the trains? Why don't the trains themselves not have long lines of LEDs on them in their color? Why is the entire opposite side of a platform not illuminated in the color of the next train? Why are the PIDs not color coded?

So many ideas, but all we're stuck with orange LED signs, that are unreadable from more than say three car-lengths away.

Yeah, I know it costs money, but some of these ideas are not that expensive. They would make things a lot more convenient, especially for confused tourists.

by Jasper on Jun 1, 2012 9:17 am • link • report

@Jasper--I think your ideas are great. I'd be happy if the stations were just better lit so I didn't feel like I was in a cave. Blech.

by rdhd on Jun 1, 2012 9:31 am • link • report

I was hoping that when metro moved to the red warning lights along the edge of the platforms it was part of a coordinated color plan, but apparently it was not. I could see how it would be more difficult to manage for stations serving lines of different colors, but having a yellow-line-only station with matching lights would be a nice visual reinforcement of the location. But I think WMATA made the right choice in not painting the trains red - it would have entailed too much maintenance and been confusing - imagine getting on red trains on the yellow-line.

by DCster on Jun 1, 2012 9:37 am • link • report

@ MoCo BRT: I don't see the County saying the whole idea of BRT is bad, but I see there being some healthy skepticism that the entire 160 mile network is feasible/worth building in the next 10 years. They already have a 3 phase system set up, so why not just focus on phase 1, build that, let it operate for a while, and see how the development community and the citizens respond to it. Putting buses down a congested corridor will do nothing for traffic, if the congestion is generated in hundreds of miles of suburban neighborhoods located off the corridor, and the corridor is only a means of moving people through an area (Connecticut avenue!). BRT is better served by corridors like Rockville Pike and Georgia Ave where there are nodes of high density, higher transit dependent populations already in place, and on a couple of east/west routes as a way of regionally linking the local ride-on system.

I'd suggest putting the aggressive BRT plans into the local master plans, then using that language to justify redevelopment along the phase 2 corridors while phase 1 is being constructed, so that phase 2 will have density planned or built to warrant it, and, the redevelopment can help pay for the cost of the lanes and shelters. As a MoCo resident who generally does not mind higher taxes for public benefit, and understands the needs for transit, I find a potential 15% increase in property taxes steep, not just personally, but knowing how negatively that will be seen to the already whining business community and potential new residents to the DC area.

by Gull on Jun 1, 2012 9:53 am • link • report

I can't seem to find a comprehensive list of the Chinatown bus companies that have been shut down. The two linked articles named a few companies but I didn't recognize any of them.

by Fitz on Jun 1, 2012 10:37 am • link • report

@Jasper; and while they are it it, can you please change the paint/decals on the circulator that make it look as if they are all running along K st.

The amount of time a circulator driver has to explain Dupont vs. Union station to tourists is simply amazing.

The 38B "Orange line with a view" branding is good.

by charlie on Jun 1, 2012 10:45 am • link • report

I love the SST jetliner flying over the red Metro train.

by ksu499 on Jun 1, 2012 11:11 am • link • report

Electric buses in Italy recharge wirelessly:

http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/in-italy-electric-buses-wirelessly-pick-up-their-power/?src=rechp

by Tom Coumaris on Jun 1, 2012 11:11 am • link • report

@fitz:
The ones that are relevant to DC are Apex and New Century, I believe. I have used both on occasion, particularly before the proliferation of Megabus/Bolt Bus.

by prognostication on Jun 1, 2012 11:14 am • link • report

Must be a slow news day a GGW.

The idea of making the trains red was made by Harry Weese back in the 1960s when the planners were drawing up the architectural and engineering specification. Mr. Weese believed the trains should be red as they were the main actors entering the stage of the earthy toned subway stations.

Zachary M. Schrag mentioned this in his Building The Washington Metro An Online Exhibit that predated the publication of his book The Great Society Subway: A History of the Washington Metro.

I personally have know about the rejected red metrorail car idea sense the early 1970s.

The model with the red subway car in it use to be in the lower level lobby of the JGB. When I first saw the model it had no subway car in it.

I vaguely remember seeing the red train rendering with the SST flying over head. One amusing thing though, the train is 5 cars long.

by Sand Box John on Jun 1, 2012 1:59 pm • link • report

I think those tomato-red cars are pretty ugly looking, relative to what Metro ultimately went with. Also, color-coding the cars means they can't run on different lines, so it's not a great move unless each line uses a different set of cars, as in Boston. (The MBTA color-codes its lines, but only uses red/green/orange/blue as an accent, rather than slathering the whole car in paint.)

by jakeod on Jun 1, 2012 6:50 pm • link • report

@ MoCo BRT: I believe that the planning board in the assessment are not factoring in the likely impact of increasing gas prices.

According to a just released working paper from the International Monetary Fund, there is a 50% probability that in 10 years oil prices will rise to between $160 and $200 per barrel (in 2012 dollars) or between $5 and $6 gallon gasoline prices. (There is a 90% chance for oil to be between $120 and $240, or $4 to $7 gasoline, $5.50 being the median probability for the price of gasoline.)

The Post had a recent article that states that transit ridership goes up whenever there is a spike in gas prices. If gas prices nearly double in real terms over the next 10 years then there will be a long of price spikes between now and then, so there should be a lot of new demand for transit like the proposed BRT, event if there is no new development.

Also, with rising gas prices, especially if the reach the higher end of the price range, there should be a lot of additional demand for infill development in inner suburbs like MoCo as people choose, or are forced to move in from the outer suburbs to save on high gas prices.

by DaveS on Jun 2, 2012 3:14 pm • link • report

Link to IMF working paper: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12109.pdf

by DaveS on Jun 2, 2012 3:16 pm • link • report

@Dave S: According to a just released working paper from the International Monetary Fund...

Two words: Hydraulic fracturing. The study applies mathematical modeling to oil supply and demand, but does not consider recent advancement in technology. Fracking is responsible for the recent increase in US production, reversing a decades-long decline.

Also from the study: Future oil prices have been notoriously difficult to predict. In a recent paper, Alquist, Kilian, and Vigfusson (2011) conclude that forecasts based on monthly futures prices, monthly surveys of forecasts, simple econometric models, or other commonly employed forecasting techniques cannot consistently beat a random-walk forecast out of sample. This result is well known within the oil industry.

... thus their own prediction is probably not so reliable. The oil crystal ball has been confounding everyone forever.

by goldfish on Jun 2, 2012 3:55 pm • link • report

@goldfish Two words: Hydraulic fracturing. The study applies mathematical modeling to oil supply and demand, but does not consider recent advancement in technology.

The oil industry has been continually advancing oil extraction technology for decades. Each new advance increases the amount of available oil but at an incrementally higher cost of production per barrel. Hydraulic fracturing is no different in this respect.

Oil production from the Bakkem formation cost between $55 and $70 per barrel and may decline by an additional 10% (hydraulic fracturing has already declined in price due to the learning curve by about 25%). This puts the production cost for oil from the Bakkem formation at about the same as for deep water oil wells.

The Bakkem formation is undoubtedly the "low hanging fruit" of oil bearing shale formations amenable to hydraulic fracturing. Each new one will have a higher cost of oil production.

While predicting the future price of oil with any degree of precision is nigh unto impossible, the trend line for the cost of production over the past 10 years for adding new oil capacity is sharply upward and gives every indication of continuing that way, so an ever increasing oil price will be needed to incentiveize new oil exploration and production. Hence I do not believe that the IMF study will be wildly off the mark.

by DaveS on Jun 3, 2012 12:56 am • link • report

If the Montgomery County Planning Staff dosen't think we need this BRT system they either have never commuted on County Roads or they don't get the Washington Post. Just today the Post had articles in both the Business and Style section on the importance of the BRT to our economic future. You've got the Governor of Maryland promoting smart growth and a Montgomery County planning staff that doesent' see a TND when it hits them over the head? If O'Malley really wants a shot at 2016, he'd do well by focusing the State of Maryland's recourses towards a tangible legacy, a prosporous and healthier Maryland.

by Thayer-D on Jun 3, 2012 3:14 pm • link • report

Interesting that buses are now using led signs to communicate their destinations. They are easier to read.

by led message signs on Jun 3, 2012 10:05 pm • link • report

@Dave S: Hence I do not believe that the IMF study will be wildly off the mark.

You give a reasonable summary of the economics of the Bakken oil, but then you support a Hubbert ("peak-oil") type model of the world oil supply that does not even mention "hydraulic fracturing" ...? Sorry, this does not compute. The study may have some good data, but its modeling is worthless.

So then, to suggest to spends multiple billions on new transit based on the anticipated jump in gasoline prices -- only a 50% probability, btw -- based on a single representation of the oil market, is not a compelling argument.

by goldfish on Jun 4, 2012 8:27 am • link • report