Transit
Where do Nats fans ride Metro after games?
The Washington Nationals clinched the National League East last night while playing at their ballpark just a few steps from Metro. Many Nats fans avail themselves of transit. I wondered where fans go by train after the games, and WMATA provided the data for a few evening games.
The data set includes 10 evening games spread from April to August. Half of the games were during the week, and the other half were on Fridays or Saturdays. I looked at the number of boardings at Navy Yard starting in the same hour as the last pitch and going through system closing.
The 10 busiest destinations are a mix of urban and suburban stations:
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The presence of 4 end-of-line stations suggests that many riders are headed home to the farther-out suburbs directly after their games. The high ranking of Dupont Circle, Columbia Heights, and Crystal City could signify the neighborhoods where more urban fans tend to live, or perhaps where they go for entertainment after the game.
Gallery Place's top ranking is a little surprising. It's probably up there because many fans are headed for a drink after game's end. Looking at the individual games, Gallery Place ranks in 1st place in half of the games in the data set. It also ranks 2nd twice, and 3rd, 4th, and 8th once each.
Is there an east-west divide?
The region often talks about an east-west divide between jobs and housing. The eastern side of the region doesn't have many jobs, resulting in many long commutes toward Montgomery County or Northern Virginia.It appears there might also be an east-west baseball enthusiasm gap.
Other than Greenbelt (#5) and Branch Avenue (#11), few stations on the east side of the region have much ridership following Nats games. Anacostia (#19), New Carrollton (#26), College Park (#32), and Suitland (#36) are the only other east-side stations that fall in the top half of destinations.
On the other hand, 6 east-side stations are in the bottom 10. And the other 4 in the bottom 10 are stations in downtown DC.
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It's also possible that this effect comes from the data set only looking at riders who enter at Navy Yard, not at Capitol South and Eastern Market. A fan going to New Carrollton will save a lot of time by walking to Capitol South for the Orange Line, but that trip is not counted; it only is if that fan rode from Navy Yard to L'Enfant Plaza and transferred.
Notes on methodology
The data capture everyone who enters the system after a Nats game, not simply Nats fans. It also includes stadium employees and anyone else who happened to board the Metro at Navy Yard after the game ended.
Because Metro often closes parts of lines on weekends, some stations received odd rankings on certain dates. To help adjust for this, the numbers in this post reflect adjusted averages. I excluded any station that was downstream from a closure on the date of a game, or any station that was closed for work. I also excluded the last station before the closure because that station generally saw much higher-than-normal ridership.
For example, on Friday, July 20, the Red Line was closed between Friendship Heights and Grosvenor starting at 10 pm. On that date, Friendship Heights (which ranks 30th overall) came in first. Shady Grove, which is almost always in the top 10, came in 52nd. These numbers clearly are an artifact of temporary service patterns instead of a trend.
The adjusted average has the same top 10 stations as the unadjusted average, though the order is different. The stations in 4th, 5th, and 6th place are affected because of closures.
This analysis also only looked at traffic from Navy Yard, even though we know that many Nats fans walk or take other transit to meet the Orange Line at Capitol South or Eastern Market. At Navy Yard, we can safely assume the vast majority of people entering right after the game are Nats fans. In contrast, that assumption probably won't hold as strongly for the Orange Line stations.
Here's the full list, shown ranked by the (adjusted) average number of passengers riding there from Navy Yard over all 10 games:
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Update: The original post showed circles with the diameter proportional to the number of trips, rather than the area. The map has now been updated.
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by Michael Perkins on Oct 2, 2012 10:29 am • link • report
by Bossi on Oct 2, 2012 10:31 am • link • report
by jim on Oct 2, 2012 10:34 am • link • report
by Tom A. on Oct 2, 2012 10:40 am • link • report
by charlie on Oct 2, 2012 10:41 am • link • report
by AltHandleForThis on Oct 2, 2012 10:41 am • link • report
by ArtR on Oct 2, 2012 10:56 am • link • report
by Bossi on Oct 2, 2012 10:57 am • link • report
by LL on Oct 2, 2012 11:03 am • link • report
by Frank IBC on Oct 2, 2012 11:09 am • link • report
If people got out at Gallery Place and walked to Metro Center for Orange or Blue, then they would be counted, but I don't see why anyone would do that instead of just transferring at L'Enfant.
The point about people parking makes some sense, I guess, but is it really easier to drive from the suburbs, park downtown, and take Metro than to park
Maybe it's a lot of people who drive to work, park, then take Metro to the ballpark and back to their parking space. But that hypothesis would seem to also suggest there would be a lot of traffic to someplace like Farragut West where a lot of people work, but there isn't so much.
by David Alpert on Oct 2, 2012 11:11 am • link • report
by David on Oct 2, 2012 11:14 am • link • report
by Shipsa01 on Oct 2, 2012 11:21 am • link • report
by Chase on Oct 2, 2012 11:23 am • link • report
by Adam L on Oct 2, 2012 11:25 am • link • report
by Gull on Oct 2, 2012 11:27 am • link • report
by Joe H on Oct 2, 2012 11:47 am • link • report
by Rob P on Oct 2, 2012 12:15 pm • link • report
Would be interesting to see this analysis repeated in 2013 and 2014. In 2014, Wiehle Ave-Reston is likely to be a major destination after the games and drain some traffic away from Vienna. If the Nats go far in the playoffs, the East-West divide may be less apparent in 2013.
by AlanF on Oct 2, 2012 12:17 pm • link • report
by james on Oct 2, 2012 12:24 pm • link • report
by selxic on Oct 2, 2012 12:25 pm • link • report
by Ms. D on Oct 2, 2012 12:26 pm • link • report
by Jasper on Oct 2, 2012 12:27 pm • link • report
1. Maybe the Eastern side of the region is closer to Baltimore and there are still many loyal O's fans there and elsewhere in Maryland (including yours truly).
2. Or did you consider the fact that central Prince George's (where the Blue and Orange travel) has the highest proportion of minorities in the suburbs, and they tend not to follow baseball as much as whites?
As for Pentagon and Crystal City: ???
by King Terrapin on Oct 2, 2012 12:29 pm • link • report
If you had up the numbers MJ put it, it comes to 3600.
A very random esitamte based on relative circle size suggests maybe the remainder kicks out 6100; a total of around 9000.
(I'm sure MJ has the numbers).
Let's say 10K, and at 1.80 a ride, that is about $18,000 in revenue from riders boarding at Navy Yard.
by charlie on Oct 2, 2012 12:29 pm • link • report
by dcd on Oct 2, 2012 12:31 pm • link • report
But, as a quick sketch of who rides the Metro to/from games, this works.
by Ms. D on Oct 2, 2012 12:32 pm • link • report
My only real point is that I personally wouldn't conclude anything based on these numbers. I seriously doubt many of the differences are statistically significant.
Again, statistically speaking, I wouldn't read too much into this. That is to say, I wouldn't be shocked if the full population of data gave a different story. People may spend time trying to answer questions that are just mirages of a small sample size.
Still, this is a fun data visualization and fun to think about.
by james on Oct 2, 2012 12:44 pm • link • report
@Jasper, my guess is they don't have the budget to employ a stats/data staff. But, it would be really, really cool if they just made all of the data publicly available. I'm not sure why they'd keep this confidential. I'm not sure why Matt could only get 10 games.
by james on Oct 2, 2012 12:46 pm • link • report
I only asked for 10 games. I didn't want to ask for too much and get nothing in return. Someone on WMATA's staff had to run a spreadsheet for each date, so 10 games took X amount of time, and 80 games would've taken 8*X time.
I tried to get a range of dates, days, and seasons. Biggest bang for the buck, was the idea.
by Matt Johnson on Oct 2, 2012 12:51 pm • link • report
by Rich on Oct 2, 2012 12:52 pm • link • report
by AlanF on Oct 2, 2012 12:55 pm • link • report
No. I only have boardings at Navy Yard.
by Matt Johnson on Oct 2, 2012 12:56 pm • link • report
by H Street LL on Oct 2, 2012 1:01 pm • link • report
by james on Oct 2, 2012 1:06 pm • link • report
Parking. There is a large (free) pentagon parking lot on ArmyNavy across the street from the PCmall where a lot of Nats fans park and ride in. In other words there are a lot of drive closer, park, and ride in fans.
by RJ on Oct 2, 2012 1:13 pm • link • report
by M.V. Jantzen on Oct 2, 2012 1:18 pm • link • report
by Ben on Oct 2, 2012 1:29 pm • link • report
It does seem a number of people go beyond Mt Vernon and the 1 in 3 or 4 train that keeps going is usually pretty crowded. Might it make more sense if the trains turned around at Ft Tottem?
by nathaniel on Oct 2, 2012 1:31 pm • link • report
Yes, except for the MARC Penn Line, and Baltimore area residents are all Orioles fans.
What would be interesting to see is if the Orioles and Nationals played each other in the World Series (yes, its possible) MARC ran special service for those games (probably on the Camden Line). There would definitely be huuuge demand for such a service, especially since the Baltimore Camden MARC terminal is right at the Yard.
by King Terrapin on Oct 2, 2012 1:31 pm • link • report
I know at least one game that I went too took place when the red line was closed past Gallary Place towards Silver Spring. therefore everyone giong that way on the Red Line had to leave the station at Gallary Place for shuttles. Did you use any games from that weekend.
by nathaniel on Oct 2, 2012 1:33 pm • link • report
While this might be only a sample of 10 games, each game is a sample of several thousand rides. In a sense, each of the 10 games is like it's own poll, and keep in mind that the typical national presidential poll is of 1000-3000. I don't think there's any problem with the amount of data. Matt has already discussed the anomalies that correspond to station closings and I suspect that if the counts at any of the top stations had shown unusually high variance, Matt would have commented on it. Sure, more data exist and it would be nice if we could just download all of it, but in this case I doubt we'd really learn anything different.
by thm on Oct 2, 2012 1:39 pm • link • report
by Cybrbanana on Oct 2, 2012 1:42 pm • link • report
2) There's more likely an O's fan/Nats fan divide than an east-west divide. Many Marylanders (even in MoCo) have kept their loyalties to the O's. Most Virginians are Nats fans now (if they even ever followed the Orioles). That's why there are so many more trips to Vienna than Shady Grove, for example.
by c5karl on Oct 2, 2012 1:46 pm • link • report
by Steven Yates on Oct 2, 2012 2:02 pm • link • report
by Gull on Oct 2, 2012 2:06 pm • link • report
Maybe, but I would guess most people going to Union Station are taking the Circulator, so they wouldn't show up on this map. I do that pretty frequently to transfer directly to the red line instead of dealing with the end of game crush at Navy Yard and Gallery Place.
by SV on Oct 2, 2012 2:46 pm • link • report
by Larry M on Oct 2, 2012 3:09 pm • link • report
DC United's fan data (sorry don't have a link at the moment) also shows more fans making the easier trip from NoVa to RFK. It's not that Marylanders don't like the team, it's just harder to get there. And that's not down to competition up 95 in Baltimore.
by Kev29 on Oct 2, 2012 3:16 pm • link • report
@Ben
This would seem to indicate the need for more green line trains after Nats games that go all the way to Greenbelt rather than just shuttles that stop at Mt Vernon Square.
Lately after games I have noticed that every other train loading up with Nats fans has been headed for Greenbelt, so maybe they have realized this.
@Gull
I never understood why a shuttle train was not on standby for when the games let out. At 10pm there are close to 20 minute headways between trains, the platform is a disaster and the trains are crazy too! Have a train that turns around at Navy Yard and again at Mt Vernon Square, keep going in circles.
This is what they do, they have extra trains waiting down the line and at Branch Avenue to head for Navy Yard and pick people up. The gap trains bypass all other stations and only start picking up at Navy Yard.
by MLD on Oct 2, 2012 3:18 pm • link • report
I haven't looked and don't recall off-hand, but have similar recent data mining efforts been done for Metro traffic patterns for the Capitols, Wizards, Redskins home games? I expect data for the Caps and Wizards will be more muddled because both Gallery Place and Metro Center would have to used and both would have a lot of boardings from those who did not go to the game, but it should show interesting patterns.
by AlanF on Oct 2, 2012 4:12 pm • link • report
by JDAntos on Oct 2, 2012 6:15 pm • link • report
by selxic on Oct 2, 2012 9:21 pm • link • report
by DavidDuck on Oct 2, 2012 9:47 pm • link • report
Because some stations were excluded. For example, on one date, Franconia-Springfield was closed. So the numbers for Franconia were averaged over 9 dates instead of 10.
by Matt Johnson on Oct 2, 2012 9:49 pm • link • report
@ Gull
I Wish some trains would skip stations like Morgan BLvd,Stadium Armory, Gallery Place and Navy Yard during games due to trains waiting for people at those stations or because the trains are packed for everyone else along the line who tries to get on.
As someone who lived near Stadium Armory and Fedex Field it is total hell for residents when there are games and there is no benefit. Many times during games at Fedex Field you would see people walking, spitting on the lawns of people who live on Morgan Blvd and other disrespectful stuff.
by kk on Oct 2, 2012 10:01 pm • link • report
The data doesn't support this at all. While Gallery Place has the most exits, U Street and Columbia Heights combined have nearly as many. When you add in Greenbelt, those three stations combined have nearly 50% more exits that Gallery Place, and more than Gallery Place and L'Enfant Plaza combined.
by dcd on Oct 3, 2012 7:43 am • link • report
I think Gull is saying that by observation, about ¾ of the people on a Green Line train get off that train at those stations. That's not incompatible with the data, because the data set would count those people in Vienna or Crystal City or Dupont Circle or some such.
by David Alpert on Oct 3, 2012 8:11 am • link • report
by steve strauss on Oct 3, 2012 11:17 am • link • report
by Henry on Oct 3, 2012 11:31 am • link • report
Someone riding from Navy Yard to Shady Grove is shown in the Shady Grove "dot" on the map, NOT in the Gallery Place "dot".
The number of people shown at Gallery Place are ONLY the people who LEAVE THE FAREGATES. If you simply walk from the Green Line to the Red Line, you're NOT counted at Gallery Place.
by Matt Johnson on Oct 3, 2012 11:36 am • link • report
by MH on Oct 3, 2012 12:26 pm • link • report
by rg on Oct 3, 2012 12:46 pm • link • report
by Jennifer O. on Oct 3, 2012 12:47 pm • link • report
Hadn't known that the Pentagon parking lot south of I-395 was free after hours. That, and the free parking at Crystal City, probably explains a lot of trips to those stations. Given that it's free to park at those close-in stations right off I-395, I highly doubt that anyone is dense enough to battle traffic to park at Gallery Place instead.
by Payton on Oct 3, 2012 8:16 pm • link • report
RE: East-West divide
I can't speak for outside of DC, but within DC I'm willing to bet Nats fans on east side are more likely to use the bus. For example, when my Ward 7 neighbors go home from the game they walk from stadium Eastern Market or Potomac Ave, then catch the bus home.
by Veronica O. Davis (Ms V) on Oct 5, 2012 10:51 am • link • report
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