Demographics
How transient is Washington?
With a talented new quarterback and a baseball team in the major league playoffs for the first time since 1933, Washington sports are getting a lot of attention recently. In commenting on the state of Washington sports culture, a lot of writers assert that DC is apathetic towards its team because the population is so transient. But how transient is DC?
Photo by thisisbossi on Flickr.
The Census Census Bureau's American Community Survey shows that in some ways the conventional wisdom is correct, but there's not necessarily a correlation between a transient population and a lack of local fervor.
According to the Census ACS's 2011 one-year estimate, 9.1% of DC's population lived in another state the year before. How does that compare with other sports towns?
| DC | 9.1% |
| Boston (Suffolk County) | 5.9% |
| Philadelphia | 3.2% |
| Atlanta | 4.8% |
| Chicago | 3.2% |
| Baltimore City | 3.0% |
| New York City | 2.8% |
| ... Manhattan | 6.2% |
Of these cities, DC is far and away the highest. However, this is not necessarily an apples-to-apples analysis. If someone moved from Arlington to DC, they would count in this tally, whereas if someone were to move from Buffalo to Broadway, it wouldn't.
That caveat aside, it's surprising to see what cities are higher on that list. Boston has the second highest, yet many would call the Hub the most parochial town on the list (or at least a close second to Chicago). Notice also how much higher Manhattan's numbers are compare with NYC as a whole. Not surprisingly, the most urban part of New York has the most new residents.
Now, consider the same cities but also include residents who moved from a different county within the same state. The numbers (with the obvious exception of DC's) jump up:
| DC | 9.1% |
| Boston | 10.0% |
| Philadelphia | 4.6% |
| Atlanta | 11.0% |
| Chicago | 4.1% |
| Baltimore | 6.7% |
| New York City | 4.9% |
| ... Manhattan | 9.1% |
This demonstrates that these other cities are often the destination of regional migrants. Sports-wise, these new arrivals probably already rooted for their new home team. But if the criticism of DC is that too many residents have only just arrived to the city itself, it's got plenty of company.
When you look just at 25-34 year olds By middle age, however, DC residents are positively planted. Here are the numbers for 35-44 year olds:
So, in general, it is correct to say that DC has a higher transplanted population than other cities. But as the example of Boston demonstrates, there's not necessarily a correlation between transplants and a lack of a parochial esprit de corps. If in fact DC lacks such cohesion, don't blame it on the new residents.DC 16.9% Boston 14.0% Philadelphia 8.1% Atlanta 15.2% Chicago 7.5% Baltimore 11.7% New York City 9.2% ... Manhattan 14.6% DC 5.3% Boston 7.0% Philadelphia 3.1% Atlanta 8.8% Chicago 2.9% Baltimore 6.2% New York City 5.3% ... Manhattan 5.1% 
Topher Mathews has lived in the DC area since 1999. He created the Georgetown Metropolitan in 2008 to report on news and events for the neighborhood and to advocate for changes that will enhance its urban form and function. A native of Wilton, CT, he lives with his wife and new daughter in Georgetown. 
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Although the caps seem to attract carpetbaggers....
by charlie on Oct 5, 2012 10:17 am • link • report
by matt on Oct 5, 2012 10:21 am • link • report
by Caitlin on Oct 5, 2012 10:44 am • link • report
I know in Richmond (where I'm from, but I live in Arlington still) most football fans my age (mid to late 20's) are either Dallas fans (their 90's success and America's team and all that) or Washington fans (proximity plus the 92 superbowl win and all that. There are plenty of people who pick a favorite team as a kid for myriad reasons and end up sticking with it through their life.
by drumz on Oct 5, 2012 10:49 am • link • report
by Vik on Oct 5, 2012 10:53 am • link • report
Good point, and you're right that using the five year estimates may have been a better source, but it's worth noting that the margins of error for this data set are generally pretty small (mostly less than one percentage point). So it's unlikely that the 5 year would be that different.
by Topher Mathews on Oct 5, 2012 10:57 am • link • report
Also, it seems (from observation alone, I'm not sure how you'd try to get numbers on this) that the people who migrate or settle in Boston as young adults tend to be from New England (which, as a region, supports the Boston teams), whereas the young adults who settle in NY and DC tend to be from all over.
by Catherine on Oct 5, 2012 10:58 am • link • report
My gut would be that metro DC's out-migration isn't nearly as transient as the reputation.
However, for the purposes of sports fandom, many of those allegiances are formed at early ages and through family ties (I know most of mine were), so this is still a very interesting analysis.
by Alex B. on Oct 5, 2012 10:59 am • link • report
1. Is DC becoming more of a sports town? Well, it's definitely becoming more of a Nats town for sure - more people at games, more excitement and enthusiasm at games, and more people with Nats hats on everywhere. The last few seasons you used to go to games and wonder if people even knew how baseball worked.
2. Is DC more apathetic about its teams than other cities? Yes and No. There are plenty of 'Skins fans, but the team is now 20 years removed from its really good days and has been pretty much horrible for the last 6 years, save for 2007 when they backslid into the playoffs when the NFC was absolutely terrible. Certainly there was some excitement that year come playoffs, but during the season they were mediocre so people didn't care as much.
As for baseball fans, well DC has only had a baseball team for 8 years and it has been a losing (and badly losing) team for most of those. There's no carryover of enthusiasm to be expected from the fact that DC had a baseball team 40+ years ago.
The Capitals have had a series of winning seasons (after a series of absolutely horrible ones) but hockey is also more of a niche sport with fewer fans. Basketball is also niche and the Wizards have been mostly bad (and TERRIBLE) with a few playoff years. Also playoffs in Hockey/Basketball mean less because SO many teams (half the league in each case) make the playoffs.
But who are people really comparing DC to when they complain about how it's "not a sports town"? Boston and New York? Really the totally rabid Sox enthusiasm (and Sox-Yankees rivalry) in Boston is a recent (last 20 years) phenomenon: back in the bad old days when they were horrible there were plenty of fans but the enthusiasm wasn't there. Same thing with the Yankees back in the days when they weren't winning - people were not all gung-ho about the Yankees in the Mattingly era when they were mediocre. And the Patriots didn't have a rabid fanbase until they became a "dynasty." Teams with storied histories carry fan bases better though.
by MLD on Oct 5, 2012 11:59 am • link • report
by Sara on Oct 5, 2012 12:15 pm • link • report
by Paul on Oct 5, 2012 12:45 pm • link • report
People always say places like Boston are great sports towns. That's revisionist/recent history. Fenway wasn't home to lovable losers that everyone packed in to see. There were bids for a new stadium and drastic renovations before they got hot and won a Series and everyone remembered the "good ol' days." It was the same with the Celtics and the Garden when they were an afterthought in the 90s and Pats before Belichick. Likewise, college sports never consume the region since it is so divided. People tend to define a good sports town as one that is winning and ignore actual fan support. Many of the labels come from the Post constantly hiring sports people with little knowledge of the region and little desire to understand the fans. I appreciate a lot of what Dan Steinberg does. He's not necessarily a sports reporter, but his acknowledgement of fans has come from actually interacting with fans and not just other media members, celebrities and stars.
/rant
by selxic on Oct 5, 2012 12:53 pm • link • report
by John M on Oct 5, 2012 1:33 pm • link • report
1. It's difficult to disentangle "transience" with the fact that the Washington area has experienced (unlike most other large metro areas in the northeast quadrant of the USA) significant domestic in-migration over the past 70 years.
2. This metro area, unlike many others, probably receives a higher share of domestic migrants from outside its immediate hinterland. The 1990 census, for example, found that 57.6% of New York area residents were born in New York, New Jersey, or Connecticut; 60.5% of Chicagoans were born in Illinois, Indiana, or Wisconsin; and only 34.5% of residents were born within D.C., Maryland, or Virginia.
3. The relative "newness" of the city as a major metro coincides with the relative novelty of its sports teams. It's worth noting that of the big four teams, the Redskins have been based here for almost twice as long as any other team (75 years, vs. 38-39 for the Caps and Wizards), and to have been anchored locally during the area's great 1930-1960 boom. (Population grew 50%+ every decade from 1930-1960; it took two decades, 1960-1980, to grow another 50%, and then three, 1980-2010 for the next 50% increase.) Sports team loyalties don't shift much over time, so older teams have a lot of inertia behind them.
4. Vik correctly points out that employment mix probably plays a role. People with white collar jobs are more likely to enjoy participatory sports, as opposed to spectator sports.
by Payton on Oct 5, 2012 1:40 pm • link • report
% of population that lived outside the corresponding metro area the year before:
DC - 6.0%
Boston - 7.2%
Atlanta - 5.9%
Chicago - 3.4%
Philadelphia - 3.4%
Baltimore - 3.6%
New York City - 2.7%
Manhattan - 5.9%
by Rob on Oct 5, 2012 2:56 pm • link • report
by DCer on Oct 5, 2012 3:18 pm • link • report
Atlanta whose metro is similar in transience suffers from a lack of pro team popularity, esp. for football. The locals get more excited about UGA and Ga Tech than the Falcons. And out of town boosters clubs are huge--the Browns and Bills clubs were the biggest of their type. The DC equivalents are probably also very large. Of all ATL's teams, only the Braves have a truly devoted following, despite a crappy stadium.
by Rich on Oct 5, 2012 4:13 pm • link • report
by Mark DeLatch on Oct 5, 2012 8:43 pm • link • report
by Jazzy on Oct 6, 2012 3:34 pm • link • report
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