Get ready for a serious drop in test scores

Students in DC have been far more likely to score in the proficient category on local standardized tests than on tougher national assessments. This year, as schools switch to a local test that’s more like the one given nationwide, proficiency rates here will probably drop by 30 points or more.

For years, DC students have taken a set of standardized tests called the DC CAS in 3rd through 8th grade, and also in 10th. DC education officials have chosen a particular score on each test, called a cut or cut-off score, that determines proficiency. DC students who score above that number are supposedly performing on their grade level.

While the proficiency rate has been inching up, last year only 54% of DC students were proficient in math and just under half in reading.

Dismal as those figures are, they’re far better than DC’s scores on another test, the National Assessment of Educational Progress. Representative samples of students throughout the United States take the NAEP in 4th, 8th, and 12th grade every two years. The NAEP is a rigorous test, and education experts consider it cheat-proof.

According to a new national report comparing last year’s state test scores to the 2013 NAEP scores, DC has the third largest gap in the country in 8th grade math, just behind Georgia and Texas. The proficiency rate on the DC CAS was 46 percentage points higher than the analogous rate on the NAEP.

In other words, according to DC, about 65% of 8th graders performed on grade level in math last year. According to the NAEP, only 19% of them did.

While the 8th grade math gap is the most egregious, the DC CAS proficiency rate is well below the NAEP rate in other areas as well. In 8th grade reading, the gap is 37 percentage points. In 4th grade math and reading, the gaps are 31 and 27 points.

DC is not alone in having state proficiency rates that are far higher than those on the NAEP. Over half of the discrepancies are more than 30 percentage points. The gaps in Maryland ranged from 22 to 41 percentage points, and in Virginia from 27 to 34.

With the switch to Common Core tests, DC’s own scores will drop

In DC and many states this year, education authorities have switched from the old local tests to more rigorous tests that are aligned to the Common Core State Standards. Instead of taking the DC CAS this month, students are taking tests developed by a consortium called PARCC.

While scores on the PARCC tests won’t be available until the fall, they’re likely to be as low as those on the NAEP. The two tests are far from identical, but both require students to follow multiple steps and give answers at each step. Both also require students to cite evidence from texts in support of their answers and to demonstrate writing skills.

On the old local tests, students could score proficient without being able to do these things. In addition, the reading passages on the PARCC tests are more difficult than those on the DC CAS.

If the new PARCC scores do mirror DC’s past performance on the NAEP, the District will have, for example, a 23% proficiency rate in 4th grade reading instead of its current 50% rate.

It’s possible that plummeting scores will spark outrage here, as they did in New York two years ago after that state made an early switch to rigorous Common Core-aligned tests. And the drop in test scores there happened even at some previously high-performing charter schools.

New York’s state tests are now so rigorous that fewer students scored proficient on them than on the NAEP. Complaining that the new tests are unrealistically difficult, many parents in the state have refused to allow their children—possibly as many as 150,000 of them—to be tested.

But some argue that relatively easy state tests have been dishonest, portraying students as having mastered skills and subjects they really haven’t. One group striving to close the so-called honesty gap points to Kentucky, which in 2010 became the first state to adopt the Common Core State Standards.

After Kentucky toughened its state tests and raised cut scores, proficiency rates dropped by as much as 30 percentage points. But as teachers and students adapted to the new standards, scores on the state tests rose. In 8th grade math, the gap between proficiency rates on state tests and the NAEP narrowed from 32 percentage points in 2011 to 15 in 2014.

Even so, Kentucky has its own opt-out movement. While it’s smaller than the one in New York and some other areas, it’s significant enough that the state superintendent felt the need to tell school districts not to honor parents’ requests to withdraw their children from testing.

How to deal with the test score decline

No doubt the DC CAS, like other local tests, did set the bar too low, even after its supposed alignment to the Common Core two years ago. One charter school leader has said the test was so easy it was a waste of time.

But a drastic switch to a regime where less than a quarter of students score proficient will be a shock to the system. The new tests will also probably make the achievement gap between low- and higher-income students even more apparent.

One thing we can do to soften the blow is to place less emphasis on proficiency rates when evaluating whether schools are doing a good job. Schools with affluent populations start out with kids who are likely to do well on standardized tests and shouldn’t necessarily get the credit for their high scores. It makes more sense to focus on how much test scores have grown at a school rather than whether scores rise to a uniform standard.

We also need to remember that change takes time. Low-income students generally score lower on rigorous tests, especially in subjects other than math, largely because they lack background knowledge and vocabulary when compared to their more affluent peers.

To remedy that situation, schools need to begin inculcating knowledge about subjects like history and science as early as possible, in an age-appropriate way. For too long, elementary schools have concentrated on reading and math skills to the near exclusion of all else.

Some elementary schools in DC are beginning to focus on expanding knowledge. But that’s a radical departure for most teachers and administrators, and we may not see results on a large scale for years.

It’s probably already too late for many older students in DC to clear the new proficiency bar. But if elementary-level teachers and administrators are able to move away from a narrow focus on basic skills and give our youngest disadvantaged kids some of the knowledge their middle-class peers often acquire at home, we can still give them a fighting chance.

Correction: An earlier version of this post said students take the NAEP test every four years. It’s every two.

Cross-posted at DC Eduphile.