Do Fairfax’s higher fare bus lines make a profit?

Fairfax County recently increased the fare on three express routes from $3 to $7. While the ridership on one line plummeted, the other two only saw fairly modest drops, while revenue nearly doubled. Is it possible that these bus lines now pay for themselves?

Expenses: For the 595, assuming hourly operation costs of around $80 per hour, 13 runs per day and an average run time of 80 minutes (round trip, including breaks and recovery time), I figure that the line costs Fairfax around $1400 per day.

Revenues: The 595 averages 238 passengers per day, paying $7.00 each, so that’s $1,666.00 per day. There aren’t discounts for transfers, but seniors and disabled get to ride for $0.60, so revenue will be somewhat less than $7.00 per person, but not by much. Even if you assume 10% senior/disabled ridership (about double that of Metrorail/Metrobus), that’s still more than $1,500 per day.

If these estimates are close, then the 595 is now about 110% funded by passenger fares. This is pretty rare in the transit world. Here are some contributing factors for this result:

• The fares are mainly paid by employers, through the federal transit subsidy.
• Parking at the destination is difficult. According to a colleague at the Pentagon, parking fills up quickly in the morning for everyone except flag officers. Parking for the bus route is free. I don’t know when the park and ride lot fills up.
• The driving route has a $2.50 round-trip toll, and requires a carpool on I-66 (other driving routes are slower, with traffic signals and more congestion).
• Other routes by transit require at least two transfers.

It’s possible for transit to pay for itself, but it basically takes the deck to be stacked against all other options. With an additional $24,000 per year available from this route, should Fairfax run the route more frequently, devote the money to improving other transit (essentially what they’re doing now), or something else? Should any transit line make a “profit” like this?

Commenter Michael points out that Fairfax County’s original plan was to cut all three of these routes altogether, but offered to keep them in service if riders paid for the full cost of the lines. Looks like they succeeded with two out of three.