I remember posting a few days an argument that we spend about $40 billion a year on "federal highways" vs. $10 billion a year on transit -- a 4:1 ratio.

Google shows me an 80/20 split, based on the 2005 omnibus act.

But that isn't a bad ratio.

Where I think things break down is how states and local government spend their money, which is too much on road and not enough on transit option. Wide variety of reasons for that.

So I'd suggest getting state governments to invest in transit makes a lot of sense. I see the equation denser=more expensive=more real estate tax=invest in transit=revenue making sense for localities, but I don't see an incentive for states to get involved in that development push.

by charlie on Jul 2, 2010 11:34 am • link • report

It'll be good. While Tyson's will have "walkable urbanism" in some sense, it won't have nearly the same level of dense, interconnected transit network that DC has and will continue to improve upon, from Dupont to Eastern Market. Just look at a bus map and see the band of bus and rail lines that carry people to and from and along this band.

Having another node of walkable urbanism connected to this band by Metrorail will enhance the value of being on or near that band, just like having Arlington's TOD from Rosslyn to Ballston enhances the value of downtown DC.

by Michael Perkins on Jul 2, 2010 11:38 am • link • report

I really hope that Tyson's works out as planned. I just see one giant problem: Virginia.

The rest of the county and the state (the Hampton Roads-Norfolk area, in particular) is also growing. There is much talk of adding 80,000 residents to the Tysons area in the next 20 years. That's great, but it pales in comparison to the hundreds of thousands of people expected to move into Fairfax in the coming decades who will mostly likely not be living in a TOD. This will most certainly create a further split in priorities for both the state and the county.

Whether the Commonwealth is actually going to consistently make the necessary infrastructure commitments and investment for a project of this scale is, I believe, seriously in doubt.

by Adam L on Jul 2, 2010 12:08 pm • link • report

Investing in a viable anchor near the end of a metro line could only mean good things for every stop in between, one would think. Do conventional retail principles have any bearing on something of this scale?

by Daniel on Jul 2, 2010 12:15 pm • link • report

@Adam; could be wrong about this, but I think the projections basically have it Tysons increased density will account for almost all of Fairfax's county projected growth (both in population and jobs) for that period. Obviously some is internal shifts, but businesses move to Tysons because it is cheap -- not because it is a mecca. Dulles corridor -- largely not served by silver line -- will be much cheaper as well.

Tysons is the size of the entire Rosslyn-Ballston corridor. Enormous scale. Can residential development take up the slack?

by charlie on Jul 2, 2010 12:38 pm • link • report

A really dumb, thoughtless article by someone who knows nothing of urbanism or how choices are made. It will be decades before Tyson's is "walkable" and at best it probably will be a more intensive version of the "urbanism for suburbanites" that exists in Clarendon or downtown Bethesda on steroids. Both are places that have their fans but are not attractive to people who want real urbanism with access to a variety of land uses and environments in relatively tense space. DC has somehow survived the rvivals of Arlington, places like DelRay in Alexandria, downtown Silver Spring, etc. and it survived much of that during really bad years for the city. DC will always have a large chunck of federal employment and things that feed off of that. The urbanization of Tysons may actually serve to raise land costs and encourage intensive development of underutilzied or degraded parts of the metro area--there are plenty of places in DC that would fall into this categoryalong with parts of PG county and even NoVA areas (Springfield, for example).

by Rich on Jul 2, 2010 2:54 pm • link • report

We already had walkable urbanism in the washington suburbs in the days of the streetcar, but people abandoned it for what they felt was the "superior" lifestyle choice of the private automobile. Who's to say that won't happen again?

by Bessica on Jul 2, 2010 3:04 pm • link • report

Why is everyone focused on Tyson's when Dunn-Lorring, Vienna, and W. & E. Falls Church are EXISTING Metro Stations where the developments around them could be made more walkable?

It's like folks aren't willing to focus on improving what EXISTS prior to adding more? Dunn-Loring has started to do some great stuff -- Vienna has cleared land on the south exit but the MetroWest project has stalled waiting for a loan. Why is everyone in love with Tyson's when it will be YEARS before its operational with Metros? I'm usually a big fan of GGW, but the missing the opportunities posed by EXISTING Metros is sad.

More emphasis needs to be placed on improving the existing Vienna, Dunn-Loring, and W. & E. Falls Church Metros with walkable stores like a grocery, gym or cinema, bookstore, coffee shop, and more.

by A. Walker on Jul 2, 2010 6:29 pm • link • report

I am very pessimistic of a Tysons that doesn't just result in MORE TRAFFIC. One rail line will not be sufficient to curb further gridlock, especially with the massive road improvements in the area. Developers are utilizing the Metro as an excuse to build more, but I guarantee all those buildings will have parking for solo-occupant vehicles. And current proposals for skybridges will remove pedestrians from the street in all but a few select places. Seems like Rosslyn 2.0.

by Cyrus on Jul 2, 2010 8:05 pm • link • report

@Cyrus

Nobody really likes Rosslyn, including me, but present-day Tysons Corner is so, so much worse in every way. If Tysons becomes half as livable as Rosslyn I'll be very surprised and impressed.

I simply don't have a lot of faith in Fairfax County to pull off this miraculous transformation we're imagining. They have no experience creating walkable places. And the typical Fairfax County M.O. of widening roads over and over again and ignoring the needs of pedestrians is still alive and well:

http://greatergreaterwashington.org/post.cgi?id=6180

Seriously? We're going to wholly reinvent a congested, car-dependent area, using the principles of Smart Growth, on a scale never before seen in this country. And the first step is to make pedestrians wait two entire light cycles to cross Main Street.

This article assumes Tysons will turn out as promised, and that in my view is nothing but wishful thinking. In 20 years, it could still make Rosslyn look like Portland.

by Scott F on Jul 3, 2010 3:13 am • link • report

The studies show that, even with the Silver Line, mixed use development at the stations, major improvements in bus transit, and extreme traffic demand management measures (read paid parking), most trips in and out of Tysons Corner will be by single occupant vehicle. Til Hazel planned Tysons to have major access to roads - the Beltway, the Dulles Toll Road, Route 7 and Route 123, and that has not changed. If fact, to handle the expected choking increases in traffic, there will be $1.4 billion in road improvements.

There will be some people who will want to live in condos at Tysons, but the developers are sincerely worried about whether there will be sufficient demand for condos, which will be by definition very expensive. People who like living in urban areas tend to live there already. Lord knows there are many more attractie urban areas than Tysons will ever be. The grid of streets will take decades to build. Meanwhile, all of the major roads are part of the federal and state highways systems. Those roads must be maintained to meet state and federal standards. They will continue to be wide and generally hard-to-cross roads.

Keep in mind that the Tysons re-planning effort was never truly about making Tysons more transit and pedestrian friendly. It's always been a scam by the landowners to get more density that most of them hoped would enable them to flip their properties.

That is not to argue that there should be no density at the four stations. There should, and the Supervisors adopted a reasonable plan to keep density at the four stations. Some people will walk to work or take transit, but most of them will continue to drive and there will be more people over time, which means worse traffic congestion.

by tmtfairfax on Jul 3, 2010 9:28 pm • link • report

I think it is silly to even remotely consider that a Virginia suburb will best the Nation's Capitol. DC will always be the job center for the region period. Just shows the arrogance of people in the suburbs. Ok so Tyson's will be a larger Reston. Great. Really its Bethesda that stands to loose the most. It is probably the most direct competition to this new Tyson's corner. I would not be surprised if most of the 115,000 people that work in Tysons live in Maryland anyway. Let us not even mention if DC changed zoning and raised the height limit (which they are foolish for not doing so already). All suburban commercial development would come to a screeching halt. There are many walkable TOD areas in Northern Virginia. Tysons will be just another one.

by Sivad on Jul 7, 2010 10:41 pm • link • report

DC will always be the job center for the region period

lolwut? look at any series of data and you will realize you are mistaken. Fairfax County has been the biggest employer in the region and still has plenty of room for growth :)

How do you feel about the fact that every quality corporation (Northrup, SAIC, CapitalOne) and governemnt agency (NGA, CIA, NRO, etc. etc. etc.) puts its HQ in NoVA, and for most cases Tysons?

Compare that to when DC holds a press conference to announce that a Safeway finally opened up...

by MPC on Jul 7, 2010 11:12 pm • link • report

"lolwut? look at any series of data and you will realize you are mistaken. Fairfax County has been the biggest employer in the region and still has plenty of room for growth :)"

Not true. Look at your data again. DC has at least 100k more jobs than Fairfax County (BLS). Only two of the agencies you listed are actually in Tysons. Let's see, the triad of authority for the US Government is located where?

A Home Depot in Manhattan was big news too, so what's your point?

DC is the center of the region. Its that simple. Comparing Tysons to DC is laughable. The entire county doesn't even.

by Sivad on Jul 8, 2010 1:35 am • link • report

Most businesses in Fairfax County, even the ones actually in Tysons, do not use Tysons as their address -- McLean or Vienna are used instead.

(... what happened to the MetroWest effort by the way? ...)

That said, which year's BLS statistics are you citing? I think the 2010 Census will show dramatic growth in the Fairfax tech sector... and what about the average pay associated with jobs in Fairfax vs. in the District?

D.C. does have challenges of (1) minimal tax base, and as a result (2) poor schools vs. Fairfax.

by L. Fairfax on Jul 8, 2010 9:29 pm • link • report

BLS end of year stats for 2009. DC's budget is 3x greater than FairCo. This is a mute point. There is no comparison. I will agree the schools are a problem, but for what major city in American is it not? You can cite what Tysons may be in the future and yes it has potential provided FairCo doesn't screw up again, but if it ever does become something more it will be competition for other urbanesque-suburban areas not DC. Again the pretentiousness is baffling.

by Sivad on Jul 9, 2010 12:35 am • link • report

@Sivad

I'm agreeing with you that Tyson's isn't the future and I think there's a lot of leaping on Tyson's with out first considering the mess it's in (it is messy) and how the existing Metro Stops could be better converted into walkable areas -- W. Falls Church, Dunn-Loring, and Vienna all have untapped potential that could be done now vs. waiting for something that will take 5-10 years to sort out and a lot of wasted expenditures.

by L. Fairfax on Jul 9, 2010 7:55 pm • link • report