Can we talk about the cost? Why was it so expensive for a surface line?

by andrew on Sep 23, 2010 12:19 pm • link • report

Although the cost is a major concern for me, I do agree that heavy rail is a more desirable option for the silver line. Light and commuter rail just wouldn't have the same effect on reducing cars on the road in Tyson's and Loudon County.

The other major concern of mine is the impact this will have on the blue line, one of the least well-utilized lines in the system, has to do with the Foggy Bottom-Rosslyn tunnel -- it's just too congested. Now that there will be three lines sharing that tunnel, now it's time to seriously explore a separate blue line in DC.

by John on Sep 23, 2010 12:23 pm • link • report

Certainly, I agree with Dave. The Silver line is a far better use of money than any highway project would be, and practically speaking it would be difficult for Northern Virginia to follow through with the multi-modal network I proposed, especially given the political climate.

I do not propose we shut down the Silver Line. I do propose that we learn lessons from it and apply them the next time. For example, when someone suggests extending the Orange Line to Centreville.

by BeyondDC on Sep 23, 2010 12:32 pm • link • report

Aarg.

OK, look. MWAA is projecting 5% of Dulles passengers will use the Silver Line -- maybe a million a year.

Why so low: because a majority of Dulles passengers aren't going somewhere that in on the Metro system. In particular, they aren't going into the District.

And the Silver Line will NOT be a good experience for anyone traveling into DC. It will be good for Tysons, Reston and Arlington. Parts of NW DC (Foggy Bottom, Farragut West, McPherson) maybe, but once you get to Metro Center the length, expense and crowding will make it painful.

And right now, I don't know anyone who still says "oh, that Metro ride is wonderful." Maybe some rubes from Cleveland, but lets be honest: Metrorail service is going downhill and has been for some time.

I'd glad to see the focus on putting high density into Loudon County, but as an airport destination the Silver Line will be fairly crappy. Nice for businessmen to get to Dulles quickly from Tysons, not so great for the rest of us.

What I'm concerned about is the cost of maintaining it. Sure, we can let if fall part for 20 years and then deal with fixing it -- which seems to be WMATA's policy -- but adding 30+ miles of rail and infrastructure to a system which can't fix itself already is asking for trouble.

by charlie on Sep 23, 2010 12:33 pm • link • report

There's no express line to Dulles. It's going to take FOREVER to get out there through all those stops from downtown. The vast majority of people will continue to drive. This whole thing seems like a boondoggle to me.

Plus -- isn't it a little premature to talk about the "success of DC's streetcar program"? Come on! Months and months keep passing. No street cars run. Millions spent on laid tracks. And nothing happens. Classic DC government screw up. Even when they do run, they're just going to get stuck in traffic, like buses.

by what what on Sep 23, 2010 12:44 pm • link • report

"Nice for businessmen to get to Dulles quickly from Tysons, not so great for the rest of us."

Ha! No real businessman is going to schlep it on the metro from Tysons when they can just call a car. Simple. Quick. Reliable.

by what what on Sep 23, 2010 12:47 pm • link • report

The problem with the design of the extension is that nothing is being done in the core to tackle increased ridership and capacity constraints. As it stands, the Silver Line is more of an add-on to the hub and spoke system, than an integral line in the system.

The first stage of the Silver Line should have dealt with the build out to Tysons and the separation of the Blue Line in DC, thereby creating a transit center in Rosslyn and connecting parts of DC that are underserved or under redevelopment. The second stage to Dulles and beyond should be reconsidered as commuter rail or totally scrapped in favor of BRT along the access road. Expand VRE past Backlick Rd. around the beltway to a modal station in Tysons and then along the access road through Loudon. Riders will be able to transfer to Metro at several key stations along the line.

by mark on Sep 23, 2010 12:54 pm • link • report

I have to agree with what what. The "success" of the DC streetcar program? Maybe it will be but that remains to be seen. Don't put the cart in front of the horse. Overall I don't think light rail systems are very effective in getting people of the road at some point this money has to go into improving capacity on our highways/freeways. The money in the Silver Line should seemingly be going to improving current Metro rail infrastructure it's a joke!

by realistic on Sep 23, 2010 12:54 pm • link • report

Charlie,

You're completely wrong. It will be much faster to get to Dulles from downtown DC by taking the Silver Line than it will be to drive...especially during rush hour times! Have you ever tried to drive to Dulles during rush hour? It's at least an hour drive, if not longer. Factor in the cost of parking, or of paying for the Flyer, and it will be MUCH cheaper to take metro. I guarantee that I, and probably many other DC residents, will use Dulles much more often if there's one continuous rail link to the airport, especially given that many flights from Dulles are much cheaper than comparable flights from Reagan. Look at how many DC residents take a ~ 45 minute rail trip to BWI for the lower fairs....I'm sure just as many people will be willing to take the ~ 1 hour rail trip to Dulles to take advantage of the cheaper flights there (esp. for international flights).

And "what what," the first leg of the DC streetcar system is not scheduled to be operational until 2012. That's been the plan for a while now. They are in the process of laying track...it's not completed yet. Get your facts straight before spewing nonsense.

by Eurostar on Sep 23, 2010 12:55 pm • link • report

Given the dense plans for Tysons, could the silver line be intended more to service that future "city," rather than an avenue into DC proper?

by MikeS on Sep 23, 2010 12:55 pm • link • report

They could save money by having the Silver Line terminate at Dulles instead of extending it into Loudon County.

by Silver Line on Sep 23, 2010 1:03 pm • link • report

@whatwhat The vast majority of people will continue to drive. This whole thing seems like a boondoggle to me.

I disagree. Have you ever taken the El from O'Hare to downtown Chicago? It takes a really long time, even in non rush but it sure beats the alternative-renting a car or taking a really expensive taxi, or asking your friends/family to drive all the way out to get you/drop you off. Asking that is damaging to relationships and driving is more dangerous. These are issues I, as an El rider and a potential future Silver line rider care about. This is exactly the type of benefit the author described with a train to Dulles.

Sure it will be a long ride but I know I'll use it over driving. I'll just bring a good book.

by Tina on Sep 23, 2010 1:03 pm • link • report

While I think the Silver Line is a good thing for commuters, I still question its effectiveness as an airport link. Something along the lines of the Heathrow Express would be much, much better for getting travellers to and from Dulles. Taking Metro will take ages.

Also, a question: Any word on when Metro will add the Silver Line to its maps? Even as 'under construction' (the dashed lines)? I know there's a cost involved in that, but with construction more than well underway, you'd think they'd have done so. (And, it'd give them a chance to fix the famous typo at the bottom.)

by Ed Hoover on Sep 23, 2010 1:06 pm • link • report

First off, it's Loudoun County, with two U's. If we're gonna talk about places in the D.C. area and want to sound like we know what we're gonna talk about, we have to spell it correctly.

Anyway.

I was thinking about this, and Dan M.'s posts earlier this week, and it occurs to me that the Silver Line is relevant to helping Loudoun County create more urban places.

Yes, the county's grown fast over the past ten years and yes, it's very affluent, lending itself to high rates of car ownership. But it's also worth acknowledging that these people are here now and will continue to come to Loudoun (if not as fast as they were before). We might as well use the Silver Line as a tool to redirect some of that growth into centers so that some people will be able to take advantage of it - not just for trips into D.C., but to other parts of Loudoun County, Fairfax County and Arlington as well.

In Montgomery County, much of the discussion over development revolves around attracting twenty-somethings (yuppies) and how to accommodate immigrants, both of whom may be more open to urban living. Loudoun County would do well to consider this also, and the Silver Line is one way to do so.

by dan reed! on Sep 23, 2010 1:12 pm • link • report

Even with Heathrow Express many visitors to London still take the Tube into the city from Heathrow, and that's arguably a more annoying trip than the Silver Line from Dulles will be. Same thing with NYC and their airports, and those trips are definitely worse than the Silver Line will be. So, I think plenty of people will use the Silver Line to get to Dulles from downtown.

by Phil on Sep 23, 2010 1:16 pm • link • report

@Phil - yes, but in terms of getting into the city centre from the airport, the Silver Line will be greatly inefficient. Too many stops (14 before you're ever in the District), as opposed to a direct, nonstop rail link to downtown ...

by Ed Hoover on Sep 23, 2010 1:25 pm • link • report

I said it on the other piece, but apparently it bears repeating: MWAA is paying for the Silver Line. MWAA would not have paid to blanket Nova in streetcars and light rail. MWAA would not have paid to build a metro line from DC to Tysons. Without MWAA the money wouldn't exist. WMATA sure wasn't going to pay for it.

by jcm on Sep 23, 2010 1:27 pm • link • report

MWAA isn't really paying for the Silver Line. MWAA is using Toll Road revenues to pay for the Silver Line. Virginia transferred the Toll Road to MWAA so it could pay for the Silver Line.

So it's not like this agency was there saying, "hi, we have a lot of money and want to build a rail line." Instead, Virginia leaders wanted to get it built, and they worked it out with MWAA to give them some revenue in exchange for them handling the construction management.

If Virginia leaders had decided to build a network of streetcars and light rail, they would not have given the Toll Road to MWAA. Maybe they would have given it to the Northern Virginia Transportation Commission or Northern Virginia Transportation Authority in exchange for one of those existing entities building streetcars and light rail, or Virginia DPRT would have done it itself in exchange for some Toll Road revenue, or something.

by David Alpert on Sep 23, 2010 1:33 pm • link • report

Also, most of the money for the Silver Line is coming from add on gas taxes, local real estate taxes, a little bit of state general revenue, a big federal grant, and other sources. Again, all that money is going to MWAA to pay for the Silver Line. So it's not really fair to say MWAA is paying for it; various governments are paying MWAA to build it.

by David Alpert on Sep 23, 2010 1:35 pm • link • report

Hoover,

Have you ever taken the subway from Brooklyn to uptown Manhattan? That can be 14 stops, if not more, and it's not bad at all. New Yorkers do it all the time without complaining. They also take the much longer subway trip from JFK to Manhattan (which involves at least two different trains) frequently, especially since it'S MUCH cheaper than a cab. I agree that an express line to Dulles would be ideal, but we don't live in a perfect world. The only way this thing was ever going to get built was if Fairfax and Loudoun counties benefited...and even then it was very nearly killed. I'll take the compromise that resulted any day over the current alternative.

by Eurostar on Sep 23, 2010 1:36 pm • link • report

@Dan Reed; my bad on the spelling. And the argument you are making, which I've seen before from you, is it is better to create mini-density out there -- and not just focus on DC/Arlington. Interesting, and I'd like to see more. I have mixed feelings both ways.

@Eurostar: this is going to get me banned.

1) Driving to dulles from DC. Yes, it takes about an hour in rush hour. It takes about 45 minutes with no traffic whatsoever. You are aware that 66 is HOV-2 during RUSH hour and moves pretty well, and you have a dedicated freeway to the airport after that. Yes, if you said from 3-4 or 7-8, when 66 can jam up I would give you some sympathy. But really. Rush hour.

2) DC: as I tried to explain, and this might come as a shock to you, most people who use Dulles don't go into the District. They go elsewhere. Why? Because is only the 4th largest jurisdiction around here.

3) the many DC residents taking MARC/bus/Amtrak to BWI...again, according to the COG it is something like 1% taking Amtrak/MARC, and maybe 10% using hotel shuttles or the greenbelt bus. And I'd suspect a large majority take shuttle buses....

http://www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/b15aWF9d20100105084659.pdf

Building a 5 or 10 billion dollar rail system to keep those small numbers happy is a complete waste. Of course, the Silver Line was never about getting people to Dulles, although it was sold to us that way.

by charlie on Sep 23, 2010 1:37 pm • link • report

@Eurostar: I haven't, but I agree it sure beats a cab. I'm not pooh-poohing the Silver Line in general, was just commenting that it's interesting that express trains (run by VRE, maybe?) were not part of the conversation, at least to my recollection they weren't.

by Ed Hoover on Sep 23, 2010 1:38 pm • link • report

@David Alpert Virginia couldn't have given the toll road to anyone else, since MWAA owns the land, and a stipulation of the easement is that the revenue from the road has to be spent on the transit corridor, with all surplus revenue dedicated to rail.

Over 50% of the total cost, including 75% of Phase 2, is coming from MWAA and the toll road.

by jcm on Sep 23, 2010 1:50 pm • link • report

Charlie,

I actually agree with you here....the Silver Line will mostly benefit Fairfax and Loudoun counties, particularly near Tysons. That's why there was enough political support in NoVa to pay for it. Given the expected long-term economic benefits to the region, I definitely think the 5 or 10 billion is worth it. My point is that the Silver Line will ALSO benefit many people who are looking for a direct link to Dulles. So when you say that no one will use the Silver Line to get from DC to Dulles or vice versa, I think you're absolutely incorrect. I think many more people from the DC core and surrounding environs will start using Dulles if there's an easier way to get there, even if their total number remains a small proportion of the total traffic in and out of Dulles. In this sense, the Silver Line is win-win for both NoVa and those in the DC core, although I admit that the biggest benefit will be for NoVa (particularly Fairfax and Loudoun).

by Eurostar on Sep 23, 2010 2:06 pm • link • report

I was just in Chicago a few weeks ago. I used the El to get to/from O'Hare to downtown. It was a 52 minute ride but I didn't care much. Sure I wouldn't be able to ever tolerate 100 minute round trip on a subway as my daily commute to work. But it's fine for the occasional trip to an airport where those two 50 minute trip segments occur on different days.

by Paul on Sep 23, 2010 2:07 pm • link • report

@Ed Hoover: Having spent years making regular trips to London on business, I can tell you the Heathrow Express is a joy to ride. I can also tell you it is incredibly expensive, and about 1/4 full on most rides. The Piccadilly line trip to Central London is long, miserable, and frequently packed. Express trains are fantastic, but unless you've found a way to make the trip reasonably cheap (which I'd love to hear), people will use this, and frequently. Don't forget how many budget tourists and international travelers use Dulles, and don't mind spending an hour or so to get to their hotel. It's not greatly inefficient if the price is right for the travelers, not everyone needs express service.

by Sebastian Dangerfield on Sep 23, 2010 2:17 pm • link • report

@ Eurostar; I didn't say " no one will use the Silver Line to get from DC to Dulles or vice versa". What I said it that it will be painful -- and to go back to the context of the original post -- not a good introduction to rail transit.

As I said, MWAA projects about 5% of Dulles passengers will use Metrorail. Given BWI's numbers, I think somewhere between 1 to 2 percent of passengers will use the Silver Line to get into DC. Let's say 250,000 people a year. About 800K a year are using the WashFlyer and 5A now -- and again, not all of them are coming from DC.

by charlie on Sep 23, 2010 2:19 pm • link • report

Do we know exactly how long the ride on the silver line will be from DC to Dulles? Maybe L'Enfant to Dulles station? The trip planner says it's 34 minutes form L'Enfant to Vienna. Dulles would be 6 stations more than that. Maybe another 20 minutes? If so, that's generally the same or better than driving.

by jcm on Sep 23, 2010 2:20 pm • link • report

jcm: MWAA is a creation of the 3 states. If they really wanted to change things they could.

by David Alpert on Sep 23, 2010 2:24 pm • link • report

It's 18 stops from the North Springs MARTA station in Atlanta to the Atlanta Airport on the MARTA train, a distance of about 25 miles.

It will be 19stops from Metro Center to the Dulles station, a distance of about 28 miles.

I know people drive to the North Springs MARTA station in Atlanta, park in the garage, and take the train to the airport. Why wouldn't the same thing happen just as easily for Dulles passengers who live/work in D.C.?

by Andy Peters on Sep 23, 2010 2:26 pm • link • report

@ jcm; I've seen the figure of 45 minutes tossed out. Of course, I am not sure how reliable those trip planner numbers are. As anyone who ride the orange line can tell you, there are sometimes some mysterious delays. I'd say between 45 minutes and an hour is a safe bet.

You also have to factor in crowding -- try bringing a suitcase onto the Orange crush. Also when the train starts and stops in the evening -- a perennial problem I have with national (you need to get to the airport before the metro station near you opens)

I'd guess the fare will be in the $8 to $10 range (projections for future inflation and also Peak of peak).

by charlie on Sep 23, 2010 2:28 pm • link • report

Also, why wouldn't the Silver Line be a boon to Alexandria and Arlington residents looking for a way to get to Dulles without driving a car?

by Andy Peters on Sep 23, 2010 2:29 pm • link • report

@David Alpert; not sure about that. When MWAA was created they were given a 50 year lease on the land, and it has to be used for "airport activity".

by charlie on Sep 23, 2010 2:32 pm • link • report

The Final EIS had a travel time of 43 minutes from Rosslyn to Dulles.

You can do the math for whatever station you want based on that.

by Alex B. on Sep 23, 2010 2:35 pm • link • report

@Andy Peters; Yes, for Arlington residents. Alexandria resident? Maybe.

One of the worse aspects is Blue Line service to Rosslyn will be degraded and not as frequent, making it harder for

1) North Arlington residents on the orange line to get to DCA
2) Alexandria residents to transfer at Rosslyn to the Silver Line

by charlie on Sep 23, 2010 2:35 pm • link • report

Has anyone considered the problem of Dulles users luggage on the Metro. We already have people bringing suitcases the size of steamer trunks and baby carriages the size of VWs on Metro. It makes getting on and off trains difficult, especially during rush hour. While some kind of rail service to Dulles is desirable, merging it with Metro may not be the best idea in the world.

by David T. on Sep 23, 2010 2:37 pm • link • report

@David Alpert No, it's not a creation of the three states. And who do you think would change things? Again, the toll road isn't a piggy bank that Virginia can give to whomever they like. I'm not sure why you're arguing this. You're completely wrong. Virginia doesn't even control a majority of the MWAA board.

@charlie Less than an hour seems like a reasonable travel time to me. I agree, though, trying to get a suitcase onto metro during rush hour sucks. I won't even do it to DCA.

by jcm on Sep 23, 2010 2:37 pm • link • report

MWAA was created by Congress, since it was dealing with two federally-owned airports.

MD, DC, and VA all have appointments to MWAA's Board of Directors, however.

I think David might be confusing MWAA's formation with that of WMATA. WMATA, on the other hand, was created via an interstate compact between the legislatures of MD, DC (at the time, Congress) and VA. All such interstate compacts (such as the NY/NJ Port Authority) must be approved by Congress.

by Alex B. on Sep 23, 2010 2:43 pm • link • report

@Eurostar -- is it $5 or $10 billion? The DC metro population is 4.5 million, of which 62.8% are of working age: that roughly comes to between $2000 or $4000 per working person.

That is a lot of money, enough to buy a good used car.

The question is, would that be better spent on some other transportation project?

by goldfish on Sep 23, 2010 3:02 pm • link • report

@goldfish

$2,000-$4,000 buys a "good" used car? Laughable.

Not to mention the fact that building a subway line is a way better investment than buying a car for everyone. Consider how much longer this transit infrastructure investment lasts than those $4000 used cars you bought everyone. Consider the savings in the fact that you are reducing future VMT and commuting so you don't have to build as many roads. Consider the time savings and life benefits of having a commuting class of people who can do work, read, sleep, or socialize with others during their commute rather than get road rage while stuck in traffic.

$10 billion in transit infrastructure investment does a lot more for the future than those $4,000 cars you just bought everyone, especially if we actually utilize this infrastructure in the future rather than tossing billions down the drain like we did with streetcar infrastructure across the nation.

by MLD on Sep 23, 2010 3:44 pm • link • report

Wouldn't the real solution to the long ride to the airport have been to add two extra express tracks the whole length of the Silver Line from the Orange Line split forwards? I'm not sure what this would have done to the overall cost but at least there would have been a Dulles Direct train that maybe made one stop in Tysons and then continued onward to Dulles with no additional stops?

In many ways, this has been one of the big downsides to Metrorail compared to cities like New York.

by fstreet on Sep 23, 2010 3:47 pm • link • report

@MLD -- $2000-$4000 will indeed buy a good used car. But as any working person will tell you, that amount of cash will come in handy for many other things -- New kitchen cabinets? Laser eye surgery? Vacation in Disneyworld? etc.

You did not address my question: would that money be better spent on another transportation project?

by goldfish on Sep 23, 2010 5:09 pm • link • report

Agreed that there are benefits, but wow...how many billions of dollars? And, if this is done how I think it's going to be done (in the median of the Dulles Toll Road) then that kills any opportunities for TOD at most of the stations leading to the airport, further preventing it from realizing its maximum value. Consider the tragedy that is parts of the Orange Line. Same example. As just one example, the West Falls Church station is a glorified parking lot, if that!

It's not all bad, but comparing positives and negatives side by side, both would garner plenty of line items. Definite kudos to writing about how the Silver Line as a whole could potentially be seen as a positive.

by C. R. on Sep 23, 2010 5:34 pm • link • report

You talk about the good things but how about talking about the bad things that will also occur because of this such as less trains on the blue line, road lanes blocked during construction, tolls higher to pay for this and how this effects the Washington area in general that includes Maryland and parts of West Virginia which doesn't get a benefit to this.

by kk on Sep 23, 2010 5:37 pm • link • report

"In 2007, 24.7 million passengers passed through Dulles International Airport. It is, and for the foreseeable future will be, the primary gateway to the city."

It is true that more passengers pass through IAD than DCA; however, IAD is not the "primary gateway to the city." 60% of IAD are connecting passengers (mainly on UA and its Star Alliance partners) and will never step-foot outside the Airport.

In 2009, IAD had 11.5m enplaned passengers (the 24m figure quoted in the post was total pax; enplaned pax only counts pax who board a flight -- a much more common metric in US aviation.) Of those 11.5m epax, only 6.9m were O&D pax (which are origin & destination passengers, which mean they either started or commenced their trip at that airport) and the remaining 4.7m epax were connecting.

In 2009, DCA had 8.8m epax. However, in deep contrast to IAD, over 81% of the pax were O&D -- or, more accurately, 7.2m passengers either started or finished their trip at DCA. (The remaining 1.6m epax were connecting, mainly on US.)

Even with regulations such as the perimeter rule and slot allocations at DCA which push traffic to IAD, DCA served 0.3m more O&D pax, making it the primary gateway to the city.

by JDR on Sep 23, 2010 5:49 pm • link • report

@JDR, a fair point, however DCA has seen just about the limit of its expansion versus IAD. And there is the possibility that a Metro link to Downtown and points beyond might bring more enplaning passengers to Dulles.

by Dave Murphy on Sep 23, 2010 7:33 pm • link • report

The Silver Line on the whole is not meant to be Dulles to downtown DC, but rather connect job centres along 267 to Tysons and reduce congestion for intra-NoVA trips. Most passengers will not be travelling from Tysons all the way to the core, and those who do will be reverse commuting using existing capacity. Combined with Fairfax's new requirements on development (which will centre development within Tysons and eventually Herndon and Reston), I don't see much to worry about.

by Phil R on Sep 23, 2010 8:03 pm • link • report

MikeS on Sep 23, 2010 12:55 pm, asks the key question.

by spookiness on Sep 23, 2010 10:06 pm • link • report

Just to add my anecdotal experience, I'm a District resident without a car, and I'll do almost anything to avoid flying out of Dulles since it's so annoying to get there without a car (or with a car, for that matter). As soon as the Silver Line opens as far as Dulles, that will all change for me. Maybe I'm in a small minority, but I think other District residents I know feel the same way.

by Sam on Sep 24, 2010 5:36 pm • link • report