This summer's fare increases are to blame for ... people shifting their commutes to avoid peak-of-the-peak.

Wait, wasn't that one of the state purposes of the fare hike? To encourage people who don't need to commute during the peak-of-peak period to shift away from it?

by Tim on Dec 3, 2010 8:57 am  

This, of course, was the fear. Perhaps getting people to shift their Metro trips to a different time is a good thing, but getting them to shift to something other than Metro is not a good thing.

Congestion pricing cannot only be mode-specific. People have options.

My fear was that the peak of the peak time was way too long - 1.5 hours during either rush is a wide time window to try and avoid. The article shows that only very few did indeed shift to save the 20 cents.

by Alex B. on Dec 3, 2010 9:08 am  

I'd also want to know when this data is from - the Post article does not say.

Speaking in anecdotal terms, I know I've taken many short trips via Capital Bikeshare that I might have otherwise used Metro. I'm curious how much of this time period coincides with CaBi's launch.

by Alex B. on Dec 3, 2010 9:10 am  

http://www.wmata.com/about_metro/board_of_directors/board_docs/120210_4AMonthlyReport.pdf

How much rail ridership is shifting to bus? One would think you could track that via SmartTrip.

Given the low numbers of CaBi users (3000-4000) and their usage (1 a day average) I can't see that having a huge impact on WMATA ridership numbers.

by charlie on Dec 3, 2010 9:31 am  

More anecdotal - This week I started using the metro again to commute downtown for a new project, which I haven't done since the end of March. I'm getting on the Metro at 7:30 am and 6pm, and to my eyes the difference in crowding is striking. Back in Feb-April of this year every car seemed to be "crush loaded," once you were in the core, but now there is plenty of room. Keep in mind this is only a week long observation, but it was pretty obvious (and more pleasant) to me.

by Wheatoner on Dec 3, 2010 9:32 am  

Some more interesting data:

Move from cash to smart trip: about $100K lost by both bus and rail. Potentially more. Given that the bus deficit is 600K that is significant in itself.

Parking revenue way down by percentage.

Alex, in the document they said moving from PoP was significant, but the sentence I found was " Ridership declined one percent in the midday and PM peak periods, declining 1,500 trips and 2,900 in the AM and PM periods, respectively, with Midday ridership an average of 1,500 trips below the same period last year"

by charlie on Dec 3, 2010 9:39 am  

Aarg. Sorry.

Also they have 3 separate LoC for $300 million, don't give much on the cost to maintain that. Has be to some expense there...

by charlie on Dec 3, 2010 9:41 am  

Alex,

Bus Ridership last year averaged 450K/Day. A 7% decrees would mean 31,500 less riders. CaCi is a factor, but not that much of a factor. Even if all 5000 register users used CaBi each day and were all Metro Bus Riders then it would be a responsible for about a 2% reduction is bus ridership. However, for rail a 2% decrease mean 15,000 less riders so CaCi riders might have a larger impact.

My feeling it is the fares. Around my office and my friends, many are long time metro riders, are seriously considering other modes mostly driving; especially now that the subsidy is being cut. I have always taken Metro to work, but just yesterday someone laid out a car pool option that make fiscal and time sense, and for the first time ever I am considering something other than Metro.

by RJ on Dec 3, 2010 9:47 am  

@RJ

I was talking about CaBi in relation to Peak of the Peak fares and rail ridership, not bus.

by Alex B. on Dec 3, 2010 9:51 am  

re: Washington Monument proposal:

I'd take it a step further: simply closing it to the public but leaving it intact would still provide a tempting target to the all-powerful forces of Terror. I say we dismantle it, leaving only a 10' stump of marble, and mount a bust of Osama bin-Laden atop its remains. That way no terrorists will blow it up.

by oboe on Dec 3, 2010 9:51 am  

Alex,

Then again thatÂ’s a maybe because the 2% drop is again about 15k so its maybe, but I doubt saving 20 cents is that much of an inducement to change behavior to a different mode of transportation. I bet the overall higher fares, better timing and overall appeal of avoiding of metro are driving more people to CaBi. No doubt CaBi is benefiting from MetroÂ’s problems. LetÂ’s see what happens during winter when I am sure CaBi usage will dwindle due to the weather.

by RJ on Dec 3, 2010 10:09 am  

@RJ:

Sheesh, it's already in the low 30s during the morning commute and the Lincoln Park station is still empty by 9:30 am every morning. Setting aside the conventional wisdom that "the weather's just too unkind in DC to allow widespread bicycle commuting", we've actually got pretty nice weather here. I say this as a Chicago transplant.

by oboe on Dec 3, 2010 10:26 am  

@mall parking

This is true of most shopping centers walmart, etc. Big ugly, empty surface parking lots. There are exceptions (Columbia Mall for exampe.)

In the case of lakeforest mall it takes up so much space that its a blight on the area.

by Matt R on Dec 3, 2010 10:56 am  

oboe,

Wait till the ice cometh. Or at least when that week or two in January where we will be lucky to see 20 as a high. I am not saying people will abandon CaBi for 3-4 months, just that winter will provide us with weather (snow, ice, bitter cold) that will disrupt normal CaBi usage long enough to see if it has an impact in Metro ridership.

by RJ on Dec 3, 2010 11:12 am  

@oboe

I say we bring it back to its Civil War-era condition. The conservatives seem content with doing this to all other facets of life in America, so my proposal should have no problem at all making it through the legislature.

The NCPC should have no problem with the proposal either, as it would be historically congruent, and would remove an obstacle from DC's precious viewsheds.

by andrew on Dec 3, 2010 11:12 am  

Re: mall parking

The article didn't exactly say there's 35% occupancy ON Black Friday, but rather refers to average occupancy since September. The photo from the Mall of Georgia last Black Friday is still pretty damning, though- a lot of unused asphalt. And I certainly don't contest the overall 'too much parking' point.

by Richard on Dec 3, 2010 11:46 am  

@ Richard

For Black Friday you also have to take into account the actual stores that are in a mall; JC Penny, Macy's, Nordstorm, B&N, Belk, Dilliard's and Dick's did not have good of sales compared to other stores.

I bet that the parking lot of Walmart, Bestbuy, Target on Black Friday would have been more used.

by kk on Dec 3, 2010 1:24 pm  

Metro ridership:

I hope the idea of a death spiral hasn't come as a surprise to the metro staffers. I'm not saying Metro is doomed, but it's pretty obvious how the spiral begins. Raise fares to make more money means less riders, meaning not as much money. Raise fares to meet shortfall, less riders again.

I've never heard of a private business taking such steps to make money. In fact, private business always does the opposite. Doing badly? Lower prices and run sales promotions.

Metro should do that for an extra reason to: encouraging transit ridership is a social good.

Let's start by lowering fares on Sunday. 50% off?

Currently, Sunday metro runs with looong headways and lightly used trains. No wonder, who wants to wait 20 minutes, especially when the competition (cars) offers free sunday parking and little traffic?

You can't compete with free by offering the same fares and less service. That's idiotic.

by JJJJJ on Dec 3, 2010 4:18 pm  

Nit-pick -- it's "Bruce Schneier", extra "e", no "d".

And, as he points out in the column, the idea actually originates with DC's own Philip Kennicott.

I have no affiliation with either, I'm just a fan of Schneier, and also a pedant.

by Urban Garlic on Dec 3, 2010 10:12 pm