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Traffic


Corporate welfare and the Beltway HOT lanes, part 3: Don't worry until it's too late

Virginia's contract for the Beltway HOT lanes are not just far from free to taxpayers and even worse if people carpool. The structure of the deal ultimately minimizes public outrage until it's too late, saddling taxpayers with a high bill and no voice.

The contract gives Fluor/Transurban a "first right" monopolization on expansion of the Beltway if congestion dictates. This clause not only ensures room for further profit, but if the project renderings are correct, much room at the center of the beltway will be left for HOT lane expansion at the expense of the left shoulder of the regular beltway lanes.


Image from Virginia HOT Lanes.

However, the project benefits list ROW for emergency vehicles as an important amenity. With one less shoulder for vehicle break-downs, tow trucks & ambulances will certainly need that access.

But most troubling of all has been the lack of citizen involvement, particularly in response to these covert subsidies. The most apparent reaction to the entire project was against the destruction of trees (required for the widening) and how this would affect the local bird sanctuaries. Everyone should be concerned about wildlife habitats, but it's troubling for local democracy that something so obvious (trees will be cut down along the beltway to widen it) came as a complete surprise to locals. Most Northern Virginians were completely unaware of the VDOT "Megaproject" prior to construction, and this illustrates the problematic nature of complex contracts that promise free stuff.

When taxpayer dollars are (supposedly) not involved, citizens (and even politicians) retract from the process, especially from boring contractual details. "Why should I care, it's not my money?" Whereas the costly Silver Line extension, Mixing Bowl project, and Wilson Bridge brought about citizen involvement in droves, the supposedly free and complex, "black-box" nature of the HOT lanes deal served to discourage input and criticism. Despite VDOT following legally-mandated procedures for public input, the result was an opaque deal-making process, and a bad deal for Virginians.

Of the total $1.9 billion (and rising), Fluor-Transurban is contributing only $349 million in private equity. Meanwhile, the state is paying $409 million and the Federal Highway Administration is lending Fluor $585 million in low-interest loans and $586 million in subsidized bonds. Taxpayers are also on the hook every year for the next 40 years for the carpool fees charged to the state account.

When users complain about the tolls as they have in Maryland, state officials can largely avoid the blame for high toll rates as Fluor/Transurban will set them, not state officials. It's also a large public works project with lots of visible "shovels in the ground" that politicians can tack on their resumes. But beyond that, it's a financially risky proposition with pennies of savings for a transportation solution that citizens are not enthusiastic about.

The up-front and back-door subsidies, beyond providing the right-of-way for free, reveals a fundamental problem with the business model. The idea that the private company would build a toll road on donated land at no construction cost to the state did not work, and probably cannot work. The deal was proposed as a public/private partnership, but it ended up as corporate welfare (regardless of how the VDOT website describes it). And in a weird, probably unintentional way, the community outrage over the high tolls has served as a red herring to distract citizens from hidden fees they have paid and will pay, regardless of if they use the road or not. The public dole that private industry requires for this deal to make a profit should serve as a proverbial canary in the coal mine for other proposed HOT lane projects.

With regards to elected officials, the deal points to the extreme imbalance of what Northern Virginians pay compared to tax dollars received back. Local politicians have been ever more tempted to take what they can get, even if the deal isn't great. The evolving nature of the HOT lanes deal was at first too good to be true. And the temptation of this free bacon to deliver to the local constituency was too much.

It remains to be seen if there will be any further welfare requests. But with the cards now on the table, one must ask what was wrong with the original estimates? Why the promise they could do the project on a totally private basis, followed by the late-in-the-game change? Why did politicians, VDOT, The Washington Post, and the public believe the almost magic promises, and why was there so little reaction when the nature of the project funding changed, but the reward mechanism to the private contractor did not?

Traffic


Corporate welfare and the Beltway HOT lanes, part 2: You better not carpool (too much)

Most press coverage of the Beltway HOT lanes has either touted the lanes or noted the high planned toll rates, up to $1 per mile. Project proponents counter the toll outrage by pointing out that commuters can carpool on the lanes for "free." The correct term, however, should be taxpayer subsidized. The state have to pay Fluor-Transurban for each carpooling vehicle if HOV use exceeds 24% of total vehicles.


Photo by Sweet One.
From the agreement:
(b) The Department agrees to pay the Concessionaire, subject to Section 20.18, amounts equal to 70% of the Average Toll applicable to vehicles paying tolls for the number of High Occupancy Vehicles exceeding a threshold of 24% of the total flow of all Permitted Vehicles that are then using such Toll Section going in the same direction for the first 30 consecutive minutes during any day, and any additional 15 consecutive minute periods in such day, during which average traffic for a Toll Section going in the same direction exceeds a rate of 3,200 vehicles per hour based on two lanes.
Based on the contract, state taxpayers suffer if our effort to rideshare is too successful. But just how much will we need to share in order to be punished? To use the existing I-395 HOV3 as a gauge, VDOT counted 30,000 cars per day in each direction. Assuming that on an average day most of those carpools drive within a 6 hour window, 395 would have 5,000 HOV3 vehicles per hour.

If we estimate that Tysons HOV3 use will be half as successful as I-395 is now, we could conservatively assume 2,500 HOV3 cars per hour in each direction. During peak times, this could well encompass more than 50% of the cars in the lanes. Fluor could charge taxpayers for half the carpool vehicles at the going rate, adding up to tens of millions of dollars per year.

This penalty doesn't apply if Fluor-Transurban makes a 12.98% profit, but the more drivers carpool, the less likely it is they will make that profit.

As for buses, it remains unclear from the agreement whether or not they will cost the same as a car, or more. In Section 4.04:

(iv) The toll rates shall be the same for persons using the HOT Lanes under like conditions, and for this purpose "like conditions" may take into consideration type, weight and occupancy of the vehicle, number of axles, time-of-day and/or day-of-week travel, time and location of entry to the HOT Lanes, traffic congestion and other traffic conditions (provided, that the Concessionaire may adopt and implement discount programs for different classes or groups of persons using the HOT Lanes under like conditions, subject to the provisions of Section 11.01; and, provided further, that it is understood that, with dynamic tolling vehicles traveling on the same Toll Section of the HOT Lanes at the same time may be subject to different toll rates);
Buses weigh more and have more axles. If this provision allows for buses to be charged at higher rates, then bus trips could cost even more.

Ultimately, under this contract, if Virginia is too successful in reducing carbon footprint and traffic, or invests enough in express bus service, its taxpayers will instead be punished.

Traffic


Corporate welfare and the Beltway HOT lanes, part 1: No free lunch

Beware of Australians bearing gifts, at least if those gifts are massive highway widening projects.


Image from Virginia HOT lanes.
Whether by negligence or malice, the Northern Virginia Beltway HOT Lanes project has become an increasingly expensive boondoggle. Fluor-Transurban, the private company working on the project, originally promised to build HOT lanes construction for "free" to the state, with overhead costs paid for by the company and recouped through congestion-priced tolls. With Northern Virginians desperate for road expansion and the rest of Virginia hoarding Fairfax County's tax dollars, a mere lending of public land in return for the good graces of benevolent corporate efficiency seemed like an unbeatable harnessing of the free market.

Proposed for $1.1 billion as a creative way to use free market demand to expand road capacity at no taxpayer expense, the result has been a $1.9 billion heavily subsidized profit hog, taxing citizens up front, on the back end through penalties, and regressively through user fees. While cost re-estimates should have been alarming, what should have come as even more shocking was the heavy demand for taxpayer money. Virginia provided $409 million in direct grant funding, along with $1.7 $1.17 billion in federally subsidized loans and bonds. The few media stories on the project focused on the relative novelty of how pricey the tolls the new "private" road would be, when the more substantive story was that it had almost ceased to be a privately-funded road at all.

A major argument in favor of a public-private partnership is risk. A private entity assumes the loan and bond repayment risk, and this takes the burden of repayment off the public. But the glossy advertisements on virginiahotlanes.com don't account for the risk involved in dismantling NOVA's transportation spine. The risk is not so much if the private contractor drowns, but that if he drowns he takes us with him.

If the contractor goes broke, the central community artery will be in shambles. This creates the worst of scenarios, in which the state and citizenry assume great mobility risk and ultimately financial risk if the contractor defaults. With the road ripped to bits, taxpayers will be forced to finish the job or be paralyzed. In this sense, the criticism is similar to the argument against student loan giant Sallie Mae, in that Sallie Mae makes loans and the federal government is obligated to pick up defaulted student loans. Just as the private entity in that partnership does not assume adequate risk; neither does the private entity in the case of the Beltway HOT lanes.

Next: The contractual block against carpooling.

Traffic


Do "we have to do something" about traffic but not transit?

Why do many of our leaders in suburban jurisdictions see new roads as necessary and inevitable, but new transit as difficult and unlikely?


Photo by shawnblog.
I've been meeting with elected officials in the region about transportation and development issues. One representative from Montgomery County recently expressed a general sentiment among area leaders that "we have to do something" to accommodate increased traffic between the American Legion Bridge and I-270. After all, Virginia is building HOT lanes that will bring more cars onto the Beltway, and Maryland is pushing for more lanes on 270 north of Rockville. Logically, this person said, the state and the county will probably have to connect the two with additional HOT lanes through Potomac and Bethesda.

Later in the conversation, when discussing Gaithersburg West, I noted the potential for biotech development at White Oak. That location is already a life sciences hub. It's closer to both DC and Baltimore, reducing the likely commutes for people working there versus Gaithersburg West. It's also in a part of Montgomery County with far fewer jobs than people, unlike the 270 corridor.

What it lacks, like Gaithersburg West, is good transit. There is an inactive proposal to build a Purple Line spur up New Hampshire or Route 29 to the area. Why not revive the idea? When I brought it up, the representative jokingly said something like, "I'd like some of what you're smoking." And in fact, with many transit projects including the Purple Line, Baltimore Red Line, and Corridor Cities Transitway already vying for funds, it would be very difficult to add a Purple Line spur to White Oak.

That's the conventional wisdom among most elected officials. We "have to do something" to add road capacity. But transit projects are so difficult as to be nearly laughable. Yet freeway projects are not cheap. As we saw from ACT's alternative plan for the I-270 corridor, you can build a lot of transit for the price of some freeway lanes. It's just that leaders are too accustomed to viewing road capacity as a necessity and transit as a luxury.

Sure, more people drive today than take transit along those routes. In fact, virtually nobody takes transit between Tysons Corner and Bethesda for the simple reason that there isn't any. But transportation expansion, whether roads or transit, will primarily serve new commuters, not the existing ones. If no new jobs or housing were coming to our region, we wouldn't be worried about HOT lanes, Purple Lines, or anything else. The current roads and rails move the people who move today. The new infrastructure we build will govern the locations and modes of new commuter growth. If we choose transit, we'll get new transit riders.

Besides, why don't we "have to do something" about Metro crowding? The Metro system is very crowded during rush hours, particularly along the Red and Orange Lines in the Favored Quarter. The Beltway is very crowded around there, too, as are I-66 and I-270. Yet for some reason, leaders talk about "having" to add more car capacity, but not about how we absolutely need to put in more tracks on the Metro or build transit across the Potomac. Why?

When our region adds auto capacity in one place, it creates bottlenecks in another place. Growth in western Fairfax is creating bottlenecks on I-66 through Arlington. The HOT lanes will create a bottleneck at the American Legion Bridge. When the automatic reaction of officials is simply to plan another capacity increase down the line, we start a chain reaction that never ends.

The ICC was "necessary" to get people from Prince George's County to jobs along 270. Then, now that there was going to be a freeway to the Gaithersburg West area, it's "critical" to upzone that for even more jobs. Next, since there was going to be so much job growth there, it becomes essential to widen I-270 to the north. Once there are lanes there and in Virginia, we "have to" add more across the Potomac.


Outer freeway proposals. Image from Blueprint For a Better Region.
Where does it stop? Loudoun County is now planning even more freeways and expressways up to 10 lanes wide crisscrossing their county, so they can fill in every acre with single-family houses. Where will everyone work? Before long, we'll not only "have to" widen I-66 again and again, but build another freeway crossing through Potomac between the ICC and Dulles — the "western bypass" that road boosters in Virginia have never stopped pushing. Or how about two western bypasses?

Montgomery voters strongly oppose a freeway through Potomac, but they oppose new lanes on the Beltway as well, and leaders are saying we "have to" build it anyway. Maybe this generation of elected officials has no interest in that, but what will happen when the 12- and 14-lane I-270 and Beltway are hopelessly congested?

Leaders are supposed to lead. They are the ones who should be looking to the future and working toward the best vision of the future. A region with three Beltways, with as much development north and west of Dulles Airport as south and east, where Frederick is part of the region's core and middle suburbs are in West Virginia, isn't where we should go. There's plenty of room for economic growth around Metro, inside the Beltway, at Tysons, Route 7 and Springfield in Fairfax, Shady Grove, White Flint, Silver Spring, Wheaton and White Oak in Montgomery, and at every Prince George's Metro station. Leaders in Maryland and Virginia just need to stop saying "we have to" build more freeways and big office parks at the edge of the region, and instead encourage infill development and expand our great transit infrastructure.

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