Posts about ICC

But the state's forecast also assumes that gas will cost $2.50 a gallon, adjusted for future inflation. If instead, gas costs $10 a gallon in 2030, traffic on the ICC is projected to be about 40% below the $2.50/gallon forecast.

With higher gas prices, the overall drop in driving would be smaller, but rising gas prices would take cars off all roads. With parallel routes less congested, fewer drivers would be willing to pay the high ICC tolls. The project consultants make an educated guess that a $2.50 increase in the price of gas would cause people to drive 10% less. Their model calculates that a 10% drop in miles driven on all roads would cause a 16% drop in traffic in the ICC.

Moreover, the forecast assumes more sprawl development. To their credit, forecast authors Wilbur Smith Associates adjusted the official population projections from the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, putting a little more future growth in DC and less in outer suburbs. But the forecast still projects outer suburbs to add more people and jobs overall than inner areas.

The forecast also assumes that wealthy and poor neighborhoods will be in the same places in 2030 as they were in 2000. Yet today, the affluent are migrating inward, while the population farther out—which is the ICC's potential market—is becoming less affluent and thus less likely to be willing to pay high tolls.

Over the next 2-3 years, traffic on the ICC will almost surely increase as drivers get more familiar with the road. But even then it will be half-empty. And what happens after that depends on events that no one can predict with certainty.

If the price of gasoline stays where it is now, the migration of the affluent into DC and Arlington halts, and McMansions spring up like weeds again in exurban counties, the road will indeed be filled with traffic in the evening rush hour 20 years from now. But if the demographic trends of the last five or six years continue, and gas keeps getting more expensive, the outcome will be very different. The ICC will stand forlorn, half-empty at its busiest moments; a $3 billion relic of a policy mistake.

There's nothing at all wrong with building for the future. The planners of Metro thought big, and we are all better off as a result. The question about the ICC is whether it was built for the future, or for a past age of cheap gasoline and sprawl that is gone forever.

You can also see expanded commentary in a thread at SkyscraperPage forum.

Cross-posted at BeyondDC.

With minimal debate, Virginia Governor McDonnell's $4 billion transportation plan, which includes $3 billion in debt, is poised for final approval. All that remains is a small conference committee holding closed door meetings to resolve differences between the House and Senate versions.

In Maryland, the "Blue Ribbon Transportation Commission" chaired by Gus Bauman, who is known for his former leadership of a booster group for the Intercounty Connector, is recommending a gas tax hike and an array of other new funding.

Ironically, the cost of construction and debt for the ICC has been a major contributor to the decline in available transportation revenues in Maryland, consuming $1.1 billion of the state's federal revenues and diverting toll revenues from all of Maryland's tolled bridges and tunnels. Our partners warned about the financial risks in a 2007 report.

How will Maryland spend its money?

As the Maryland General Assembly considers a proposal to raise the gas tax, the Coalition for Smarter Growth, 1000 Friends of Maryland and seven other conservation and housing groups under the banner of "Transportation for Maryland" (T4Md) have released a position statement and specific criteria that must be met for any tax increase for transportation in Maryland. T4Md's release responds to the failure of the commission to demand fundamental reform in what Maryland is buying with its transportation dollars.

T4Md recommends the following priorities for transportation funds:

• Maintain and repair existing infrastructure, including roads and bridges before building new;
  
• Revisit near-term spending decisions and long-term project selection to fund projects that meet the growing demand for more transportation choices that save time and money and help reduce our dependence on foreign oil;
  
• Spark innovation and cost-savings through a competitive transportation solutions program; and
  
• Fund the biggest jobs creator, public transportation.

Planning for major transportation projects must also routinely consider integrated land use, urban design, street network and transit alternatives that will support more efficient development. Too often, for major transportation projects, we see a failure to fairly and objectively evaluate a range of alternatives, especially integrated land use and transportation alternatives.

Cheap loans from Virginia, big profits for road builders

In Virginia, the legislature will be granting a blank check to Governor McDonnell. It looks like most of this money—$1.5 billion supplemented by low-interest taxpayer funded loans—would go for Public Private Transportation Act (PPTA) projects and the large multinational companies that build these private toll roads.

The loans would be made by a new Virginia Transportation Infrastructure Bank and would be funded by siphoning $150 million from core services (education, health care, police and fire, etc) and another $250 million from road maintenance accounts as a result of the VDOT "audit."

According to Virginia Transportation Secretary Sean Connaughton, the loans would be very low interest (2 to 3 percent) to companies that he says make a 14 percent return on their investment. Grants and loans are in addition to the 75 years of toll revenues signed-away to the companies.

Under the PPTA the Governor and Secretary of Transportation have total control over the negotiation of the contracts, so they will have complete discretion over the $1.5 billion fund.

As is the case with Maryland's transportation commission, Governor McDonnell has not addressed his state's $3.5 billion in structurally deficient bridges, about $1 billion in deficient pavement, or the significant operating and maintenance revenue shortfalls faced by the state's transit systems including Metro. His plan also ignores oil dependency and rising energy prices.

Would you buy this road?

Symbolic of the potential misallocation of resources, Governor McDonnell has said his top priority is Route 460. Quiz question for Northern Virginians: where is it?

This 55-mile new limited access highway would run through empty farmland and parallel to an existing highway and freight railroad. The existing highway carries far fewer trips than most other highways in Virginia and fewer than roads like Route 7, Route 50 and Route 236 in Northern Virginia.

A proposal from the private toll road builder calls for $782 million in subsidies from Virginia taxpayers and $491 million in low interest loans. Northern Virginians provide the largest share of tax revenues, so Northern Virginians will be primarily subsidizing this unneeded highway.

If Route 460 is the poster child for how not to spend our scarce resources, Governor McDonnell's failure to make a strong case to save federal Metro funding and the small share of his total package which "might" go to transit—11.5 percent—is evidence of his lack of support for transit.

So we're not buying Governor McDonnell's debt plan or a Maryland gas tax increase, unless the money is used wisely to address the priority challenges faced by our nation and our region. Anything else would be a huge waste of our tax dollars.

I've listed the downcounty races first, followed by the other districts.

District 16 (Glen Echo, Bethesda, Rockville Pike) has the western end of the Purple Line, significant bus ridership, a number of Metro stations and the county's most walkable downtown.

Senator Brian Frosh has been a leader on transportation issues, including circulating the letter supporting a transit alternative to widening I-270.

ACT is displeased with delegate Bill Frick's lack of absolute firmness on the Purple Line, and he specifically said he supports the 270 widening. However, he did sign the Purple Line Now pledge, and took the time to send a letter to the National Park Service after reading about a Rock Creek Park issue here on Greater Greater Washington. We feel he deserves another term, as does fellow incumbent Susan Lee.

Kyle Lierman and Scott Goldberg are among the many challengers vying for the one open seat or one of the incumbents'. Mr. Lierman's strength mostly comes from family political connections, but he wants to champion the Purple Line, get more funding to Metro, and raise the gas tax.

Mr. Goldberg, whom Cavan interviewed, also strongly supports the Purple Line, definitely understands induced demand, and wants the state to do better to minimize car-dependent sprawl. Either would make an excellent representative for the area.

District 18 (Chevy Chase, Kensington, Wheaton) contains the Town of Chevy Chase and Columbia Country Club, Ground Zero for the Purple Line battle. The political race for Delegate has not disappointed, boiling down largely to a referendum on the Purple Line.

Incumbent Anna Sol Gutierrez and challengers Vanessa Atterbeary and Dana Beyer are running in support of the light rail Purple Line along the alignment selected by the county and state. A strong vote for them, like for Berliner in Council District 2, would send a clear message that voters want to put this vital regional project ahead of local neighborhood obstruction.

Cavan discussed the Purple Line, Smart Growth in Wheaton, budget processes, and more with Ms. Gutierrez, Ms. Beyer and Ms. Atterbeary earlier this summer.

The other two incumbents are Al Carr and Jeff Waldstreicher. Mr. Carr has been a friend to the environment, cycling and transit with the exception of his Purple Line stance. He introduced bills for the bag fee and reforming "accident" language. While we hate to focus exclusively on single issues (and haven't in other races, like Mr. Frick in District 16), the Purple Line is the key place the state government will influence the future of this area in the immediate term, and having a supportive local delegation is important.

Senator Rich Madeleno has not been good on the Purple Line, but has been good on transit funding from the state in general, and is likely to be a key player in advocacy for transportation funding. He's also unopposed.

The controversy over the Purple Line in District 18 is nowhere to be found in District 20 (Silver Spring, Takoma Park, White Oak), where the sitting delegation absolutely supports the Purple Line and is otherwise terrific on practically every single issue.

Senator Jamie Raskin and Delegates Sheila Hixson, Tom Hucker and Heather Mizeur deserve a speedy return to Annapolis. Among many other things, Mr. Raskin was the Senate introducer of the bag fee and Ms. Hixson organized the I-270 transit alternative letter.

District 14 (Burtonsville, Brookeville, Damascus) is one of the more rural districts in the county, with no Metro stations. However, the Intercounty Connector will run through the district's southeastern portion.

Delegate Karen Montgomery deserves to win in her challenge against incumbent Senator Rona Kramer. Ms. Kramer supported the ICC, while Ms. Montgomery opposed it. Ms. Kramer's family includes developers who build sprawling strip malls, and on policy her actions align with theirs. Outside of GGW issues, Ms. Kramer has also taken some very unusual stands for her party, like opposing a progressive income tax.

For Delegate, we support incumbent Anne Kaiser and open-seat candidates Eric Luedke and Craig Zucker. Luedke is even a blogger, having written periodically for Maryland Politics Watch.

District 15 (Poolesville, Barnesville, Clarksburg) is the other rural district. There are no Metro stations and a relatively low proportion of transit use, though MARC's Brunswick line has many stations in this district.

Senator Rob Garagiola and Delegates Kathleen Dumais and Brian Feldman have been reliable supporters of transit funding including Metro and MARC, though in many cases also road construction as well. Mr. Garagiola authored the bill creating a commission to find a new source of transportation funding which Maryland desperately needs.

Aruna Miller and Lara Wibeto are the leading candidates for the third open seat. Ms. Miller is a transportation engineer for Montgomery County DOT, and some who've tangled with them on road design issues have some complaints about working with her. Otherwise, there does not seem to be a strong difference in their answers on the ACT questionnaire.

District 17 (Garrett Park, Rockville, Gaithersburg) has a high-profile contest between incumbent Senator Jennie Forehand and challenger Cheryl Kagan. Advocates on most issues, including on transit and smart growth, have been hard pressed to find any substantive difference between the two. Forehand spoke up strongly for highway widening during the 270 battle, but Kagan isn't really any better.

The delegate seats are all uncontested. James Gilchrist deserves special kudos for periodically taking the bus from Rockville to Annapolis to attend legislative sessions. Kumar Barve was one of two delegates not to sign the "Fair Share for Metro" letter, and signed the pro-highway 270 letter but not the pro-transit alternative.

District 19 (Glenmont, Aspen Hill, some of Olney) is a fairly static part of the County's middle, almost entirely built out with single family suburban homes (including my in-laws') and not changing very much very quickly for better or worse, except for the ICC running through the middle.

Delegate Roger Manno is trying to take the Senate seat from Mike Lennett. On transportation, both have been good, but Mr. Manno does more legwork to make things happen. Advocates say when they visit Annapolis, Lennett might be on their side, but Mr. Manno greets them and asks how he can help. Mr. Manno was the one to circulate the Metro funding letter on the floor. On that basis, Mr. Manno deserves a vote.

Among the delegates, incumbent Ben Kramer is similar to his sister Rona Kramer, including being very pro-road. Advoactes who've talked with the various candidates had good impressions of Sam Arora and Jay Hutchins on style and substance. Mr. Hutchins had excellent answers on the ACT questionnaire, and we like Mr. Arora's issues page. Disclosure: Mr. Arora and I have mutual friends.

District 39 (Montgomery Village, North Potomac, Darnestown) is the suburban area around the City of Gaithersburg, shaped as it is because state law requires district boundaries to respect incorporated city boundaries. It includes the Great Seneca Science Corridor (formerly Gaithersburg West), but the state legislature had little involvement with this issue. If built, the Corridor Cities Transitway will travel through a significant part of this district's western half.

Saqib Ali is trying to unseat incumbent Seantor Nancy King. Most of the differences are stylistic, especially Mr. Ali's much younger age and perceived greater vigor. But advocates who work with the legislature also say Mr. Ali does more grandstanding than actual legislating, and his bills don't advance because he doesn't work them hard enough. His vigor could be more Twitter-based than actual achievement-oriented.

However, Mr. Ali was willing to take a clear stand against widening I-270. He actually publicly renounced the pro-widening letter he himself signed, saying he hadn't seen the 270 part, which was below the pro-Corridor Cities Transitway section of the letter. Maybe it would have been better if he'd read the letter first, but we applaud this action.

Incumbents Charles Barkley and Kirill Reznik have reliably supported transit issues including Metro funding, the Purple Line, and the CCT, including transit alternatives over widening I-270. They deserve reelection. The most viable candidates vying to succeed Mr. Ali are Shane Robinson and Bob Hydorn, whose positions on these issues differ little.