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Transit


Governor Hogan thinks only 10% of Marylanders use transit. Actually, 25% or more do.

Maryland Governor Larry Hogan says that Maryland should shift its focus away from transit toward building more roads because (he says) less than 10% of people use transit. But the real number is far more.


Bethesda. Photo by ehpien on Flickr.

Hogan's mistaken assertion comes from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS), which estimates that 9.1% of Maryland's 2.9 million workers over the age of 16 used transit as their primary mode for commuting in 2013.

But that's not a measure of the number of people who use transit. Lots of people who live and work in Maryland cannot take transit to work, but use Metro whenever they venture into DC. And most people who drive to work in the District use Metro at least sometimes.

Even some daily users of transit do not show up as transit users in the ACS, because if you drive 20 miles and ride Metro the last 12 miles, the survey counts you as a driver.

National Census data can help estimate Maryland's transit use

No survey has estimated the number of Marylanders who use transit. But Census surveys show that nationwide, total transit users are about two to three times the number of transit commuters. There is no proof these patterns hold in Maryland, but let's assume that they do.

The American Housing Survey (Table 1) showed that about 6.6% of US households have at least one person who uses transit most of the time to get to work, that people in 17.4% of all households use transit in some way, or more than 2½ times the number of households. If we apply this ratio to Maryland, then 24% (2.64 times 9.1%) of Marylanders would use transit.

Table 1: Comparing the share of people who use transit with the share of people for whom transit is the primary mode for traveling to work
Percent of Households1Percent of Employees2
USANortheastUSANortheastMaryland
Transit Users17.432.5---
Use Transit for Traveling to Work
Most of the time6.615.35.014.39.1
Sometimes3.66.0---
Never7.111.1---
1 US Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey
2 US Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey

That's not the only way to interpret the data. As Table 1 shows, the transit mode share for Maryland, 9%, is 1.8 times the national average of 5%. If the proportion of Maryland households using transit is also 1.8 times the national average of 17.4%, then 31.3% of Maryland households use transit.

Which of these two above estimates, 24% or 32%, is more defensible? It's hard to say. But there are two reasons to think that applying these nationwide relationships understates transit use in Maryland.

First, using household data inherently shows a smaller ratio of all transit users to daily transit users than a comparable survey of individuals would. (If you want to explore this point in detail, here are a few numerical examples).

Second, occasional users tend to outnumber daily users on rail lines but not on bus lines, according to Census data. So in states like Maryland with a lot of rail, occasional transit users will tend to outnumber regular users significantly compared to the national average. Assuming the national average ratio of occasional to regular transit users might then underestimate the number of occasional users and the total.

A Washington Post poll also shows high transit use

A few years ago, the Washington Post pollled area residents on how they get to work. The poll found that 20% of area residents used transit to get to work, which is similar to the county-level data from the American Community Survey. 88% of respondents said they use Metrorail at least sometimes.

To be conservative, let's assume that all of the non-transit users are outside DC and Arlington. That means 85% of residents use Metrorail in the rest of the region. Let's also assume that transit use is no higher in Prince George's and Montgomery than the rest of the region—a conservative estimate because Census data show these two Maryland counties have a higher transit mode share than Fairfax or Loudoun.

Because Prince George's and Montgomery counties alone account for 32% of the Maryland population, if 85% of those residents use transit, then that's 27% of the state's population right there.

Table 2: Number of Marylanders who use transit as the primary mode for traveling to work
CountyTotalPercent of all workers
Montgomery83,70615.6
Prince George's78,68517.4
Baltimore city50,51918.8
Baltimore County19,6104.8
Anne Arundel13,1574.6
Howard5,2713.3
Charles4,0415.2
Frederick3,2112.6
Harford2,4371.9
Rest of Maryland7,9231.6
Total268,5609.1
Source: US Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey

As Table 2 shows, Montgomery and Prince George's account for about 60% of the transit mode share. If they also represent 60% of the transit users in Maryland, then we could conclude from the Post poll that fully 45% of Maryland residents use transit at least sometimes.

Admittedly, some of those people use it infrequently, but even occasional users get value from transit, particularly since they use it most when traffic is heaviest.

As a newly elected governor, Mr. Hogan is reasonably trying to both discern his mandate and articulate it. He may be correct that statewide, more people in Maryland are worried about roads than improving transit. But the number of people who use transit is far greater than he acknowledges, and in the Washington area, probably a majority.

Demographics


88% of new DC households are car-free

For the vast majority of DC's new residents, Car Free Day (September 22) isn't a once-a-year event, but a year-round occasion. Between 2010 and 2012, the number of car-free households in in the District of Columbia grew by 12,612—fully 88% of new households citywide.


Graph by the author with data from the US Census.

During that time, the number of car-free households in DC has grown by 14.3%, increasing their share of all households from 35% to 37.9%. By contrast, the District only added 1,662 car-owning households since 2010, an increase of just 1.0%.

The percentage of households with one, two, and three or more cars all declined. This is even though typical DC households have considerably more money with which they could buy cars: median incomes grew by 9.3% over the same time period.

More specifically, the Census Bureau's American Community Survey (using one-year estimates, and accessible via factfinder2.census.gov) showed that the number of car-free households in DC increased from 88,390 to 101,002, and the total of all households went from 252,388 to 266,662.

The ACS has also picked up on other consequences of DC's growing car-freedom, like a sharp decline since 2007 in the number of DC residents who drive to work.

This doesn't mean that new apartment buildings' garages are all seven-eighths empty, of course. There is considerable churn among households, especially in urban areas: fully 36.5% of DC households moved at some point between 2010 and 2012, with most of those moves taking place within DC. Some who already lived in DC and own cars moved into new buildings, and others moved from the city and took cars with them.

Some existing households bought cars, and others sold theirs. New households are created when couples or roommates split, when kids strike out on their own, or when someone new moves to town. (One set of new arrivals not contributing to the trend: students living in dorms are not considered households, as the Census defines the term.)

But the net effect of all these changes is the same: The people moving into DC, or striking out on their own here, are almost entirely car-free. They are very different from current residents in that regard: only 12% of new households own cars, compared to 62.1% of current DC households. These new households are demanding many fewer parking places, much less rush hour road space, and much less gasoline.

Parking minimums prepare for car ownership that just doesn't exist

These statistics show why DC does not need to continue requiring costly and environmentally destructive new parking garages within new developments that accommodate the city's growing population.

However, some longtime neighborhood activists have been fighting lower parking minimums. At this week's hearings on zoning code changes, multiple opponents of lower parking minimums also cited Census data to argue that parking was necessary: they said that the numbers of cars per household in DC was "holding steady" at 0.9.

In fact, the number of cars per household in DC declined from 0.90 to 0.86. Maybe if you round off to one decimal place, both numbers become 0.9—proof that nothing has changed!

These trends aren't unique to DC; instead, they're consistent with what other growing, dense cities are seeing. Michael Rhodes from Nelson\Nygaard, a transportation consulting firm, recently calculated that in San Francisco, a similar 88 percent of new households are car-free. DC's car-freedom is also consistent with national and global trends pointing towards lower urban car ownership recently and into the future. The decline in car ownership should come as little surprise given DC's booming population of auto-averse millennials.

Government


DC's daytime population is over a million

According to a US Census report, the District of Columbia's daytime population, including commuters, swells to over 1,000,000. The difference between DC's day and night populations is second greatest in the US.


Downtown DC.

The report dates from 2010 so the numbers are surely a bit different today. With DC's (then) nighttime residential population of 584,400, its 1,046,036 daytime population represents a 79% increase. Among US counties, only New York County (Manhattan) has a larger percentage increase.

Arlington looks much the same. Its 26% increase in daytime population is 13th largest nationally. That's higher than San Francisco on the list.

At the other end of the spectrum, two DC suburbs top the list of places with decreased daytime population. Dale City and Centreville in Northern Virginia both drop by over 40%, making them America's ultimate bedroom communities.

Montgomery County's Germantown is Maryland's top entrant on that list; it clocks in at #20, with a decrease of 31%.

Part of the explanation for this is simply where boundaries are drawn. For example, even though Houston has a large downtown with many commuters, it doesn't appear on the increased daytime population list because the City of Houston annexed so many of its suburbs that more of its commuters still technically live within the city limits. Likewise, Houston's Harris County is gigantic and more or less envelopes the entire metropolis, so there's little difference at the county level either.

Geographically smaller jurisdictions in large metropolitan areas are disproportionately more likely to show up in this data. So it's not a great comparison of commuting patterns across different metropolitan regions. But it's nonetheless interesting to know.

Cross-posted at BeyondDC.

Bicycling


DC bike commuting more than doubled since 2000

It's pretty clear from looking around DC that many people are bicycling. The Census has published new numbers that show how many are.


Image from the US Census.

3.1% of commuters in the District bike to work, according to the American Community Survey. That puts DC seventh among cities over 200,000 people. In 2000, that number was only 1.2%, for an enormous jump.

Plus, the survey doesn't even capture all of the bicycling. It just asks about commute to work trips. Many people bike for other trips even if they drive, take transit, or walk to work. And if you bike a short distance to a longer Metro ride, the Census would capture your commute as being by Metro, not by bike.

DC also has the second-highest rate of people walking to work, 12.1%, behind Boston's 15.1%.

The District is very different than the whole region (which includes the inner suburban counties and the far exurban ones). For the larger metro region, 3.2% of people walk to work, says the Census report; it doesn't say how many people bike to work region-wide.

Government


DC population grows more than any other local county

The US Census' newest county-level population estimates show that between 2012 and 2013, the District of Columbia added more residents than any other metro area county.

Loudoun County grew slightly faster by percentage. But even according to that measure, DC is second.

County 2012
population
2013
population
Raw
growth
Percent
growth
District of Columbia 633,427 646,449 13,022 2.1
Loudoun (VA) 337,248 349,679 12,431 3.7
Fairfax (VA) 1,118,683 1,130,924 12,241 1.1
Montgomery (MD) 1,004,476 1,016,677 12,201 1.2
Prince George's (MD) 881,419 890,081 8,662 1.0
Prince William (VA) 430,100 438,580 8,480 2.0
Anne Arundel (MD) 550,175 555,743 5,568 1.0
Baltimore County (MD) 817,682 823,015 5,333 0.7
Howard (MD) 299,356 304,580 5,224 1.7
Arlington (VA) 221,275 224,906 3,631 1.6
Stafford (VA) 134,251 136,788 2,537 1.9
Charles (MD) 150,710 152,864 2,154 1.4
Alexandria (VA) 146,839 148,892 2,053 1.4
Frederick (MD) 239,520 241,409 1,889 0.8
Spotsylvania (VA) 125,772 127,348 1,576 1.3
Fauquier (VA) 66,526 67,207 681 1.0
Baltimore City (MD) 622,417 622,104 -313 -0.1

Cross-posted at BeyondDC.

Government


As DC grows, Anacostia gets left behind

After decades of decline, DC's population is growing again. But parts of the city like Anacostia are still losing people, showing that revitalization has yet to take hold everywhere.


The population of Anacostia between 1990 and 2012. All data from the Census Bureau, graphs by the author.

While many neighborhoods across the city have grown in population and prosperity, Anacostia has lost nearly five hundred people and more than 140 housing units since 1990, according to newly released Census data. Meanwhile, the median household income has declined by $3,000, from $35,545 in 1990 (in 2012 dollars) to $32,262 today. There are fewer homeowners as well. In 1990, 32.8% of Historic Anacostia's 986 housing units were owner-occupied, whereas today just 29.9% of the 854 units are.


There are fewer housing units in Historic Anacostia now than in 1990.

These raw numbers reflect the abundance of abandominiums within the neighborhood, including both single-family homes and apartments. More than a hundred units have been vacant for more than two decades, while others have been razed.

The drastic contraction in the available housing stock over the last two decades has led to the subsequent flight of nearly 15% of the neighborhood. In 1990 Anacostia counted 3,018 people, 437 more than in 2012, when 2,545 lived in the Historic District.

Although social media campaigns and advocates of the creative class have increasingly touted the neighborhood over the past half-decade, economic opportunities remain a dream for many residents. Of 1,799 people over 16, just 54.9% are in the labor force, compared to 58.4% of 2,130 people in 1990.


The percentage of people in Anacostia's labor force.

With the growth of white-collar information services in DC, blue-collar independent tradesmen living in Anacostia say they are at a double disadvantage. They don't have the education the information economy demands, and they are often shut out from joining existing contracting teams on local multi-million dollar public works projects. The neighborhood has its own day-laborer class of junkmen and uncredentialed tradesmen who may not fit into the formal economy.


The percentage of Anacostia adults with high school diplomas.

Even though the neighborhood economy has remained stagnant over the past 20 years, and private capital is hesitant to invest and develop, Anacostia's human capital has slowly increased. Today, 79.1% of Anacostians 25 years old and over have their high school diploma, a dramatic increase over 49.7% in 1990. More than two decades ago less than five percent of Anacostia residents 25 years and older had a college degree; today it is 8.2%.

These numbers do not paint a complete picture, but they show Historic Anacostia to be a neighborhood dominated by low-earning renters, the same as it was in 1990.

In commemorating the March on Washington last summer, President Obama invoked "the corners of Anacostia" as an example of persistent inequities. While the areas and environs of 14th Street NW, 7th Street NW, H Street NE, and 8th Street SE have exponentially grown over the past two decades, Anacostia remains largely stuck in time, slowly fading away before the eyes of anyone watching.

Government


DC grows by 83,000 residents in 10 years

Ten years ago, DC Mayor Anthony Williams famously set a goal of attracting 100,000 new DC residents within a decade. Pundits scoffed, but the latest population estimates show we made it closer than most imagined possible.


DC population change graph. Image from Google.

The official US Census population estimate for DC in 2003 was 563,384. The latest estimate for 2013 is 646,449. That's an increase of 83,065.

In 2003, DC's population was still shrinking. It had been about 569,000 in 2002, and 572,000 in 2000. Young single people had started flocking to some parts of DC, but families leaving for the suburbs still outnumbered people moving in and being born. Halting the decline seemed possible, maybe even likely, but growing by 100,000 people in a decade seemed outrageously optimistic.

And to be fair, we didn't quite make it. 83,000 isn't 100,000. But it's awfully impressive, awfully close. Far more than just about anybody thought possible.

DC's population peaked at 802,178 in 1950, then declined for the next half century. If today's impressive growth rate continues into the future, we'll catch up and surpass the 1950 high sometime in the mid 2020s.

We'll have to keep up impressive growth to meet Mayor Gray's goal of 250,000 new residents by 2032.

Cross-posted at BeyondDC.

Development


Yes, 14th Street is DC's densest area

Sunday's Washington Post featured a big story about gentrification on 14th Street, including the claim that it "recently surpassed Columbia Heights as the densest area in the city." Is that true? The US Census can tell us.

Using American FactFinder, I created this map illustrating the population density of DC's central neighborhoods.


Population density of central DC. Map by the author using census.gov.

5 of DC's 6 overall densest census tracts border on 14th Street, between downtown and the northern end of Columbia Heights. It's definitely the city's densest string of neighborhoods.

But is it denser north or south of Florida Avenue? That depends how you count. While the stretch of 14th Street between Florida Avenue and P Street remains a little sparser than in Columbia Heights, the stretch from P Street south to Thomas Circle is the densest single tract in DC.

Cross-posted at BeyondDC.

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