Posts about Demographics

Rob Pitingolo has done a lot of research on which places have more or fewer people with college degrees. DC has the fourth most college degrees per square mile of any city in the nation, but that doesn't apply everywhere in the region or everywhere in DC.

Rob created these maps that show the locations of people with and without college degrees aged 25 and over.

There seems to be a fair amount of mixing in Virginia, but in DC and Maryland, the divide is starker. East of the Anacostia, blue dots are very few; west of Rock Creek and in the central city, they overwhelm the pink dots.

A lot of news stories talk about the DC region in terms of the division between black and white. The city's history of racial segregation has left a legacy of educational and socioeconomic inequality. As a result, many commentators use race as a simplistic shorthand for conflicts that are really about college educated versus not, or wealthy versus poor, or young versus old.

Race is immutable, but other characteristics are not. If our divisions are really about black versus white, they're not going to change unless some people move out of the city, and that's not what we want to happen. But education levels can change, and it's good for everyone if we can help all people in our region access better education.

Medians also don't consider desperately poor households, unless a place is so poor that half of its households are in poverty. When the news broke that the DC area has the highest median income of any metropolitan area, most of the news coverage about how DC is insulated from the economic downturn ignored that fact that there's serious unemployment and poverty in much of the region.

The unemployment rate might be lower than the national average, for sure, and far lower than in some parts of the country, but that's little comfort to the people without jobs.

Much of the disparity goes hand in hand with a higher cost of living. The national median household income in 2010 was $50,046, and the median in the DC region $84,623. But real estate prices are significantly higher here and have been climbing as well. For the 4th quarter of 2011, the median single-family home sales price was $325,400 and the median condo sales price $230,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. Nationally, the average house price was $166,200 and the average condo price $165,100.

Thanks in part to the higher housing costs and limits on the quantity of housing in walkable areas with good transit access, many professionals share housing in the DC region. When Rob lived in a group house in Arlington, the household income was about $160,000. That sounds like a lot on paper, and it's definitely above the area median, but 3 entry-level professionals and a grad student shared that income, and none considered themselves individually wealthy. On the other hand, a husband/wife household with no kids and a $160,000 combined income might feel a lot wealthier.

If these statistics aren't about the super-rich 1%, who is the median? To figure this out, Rob analyzed 2007-2009 American Community Survey microdata for people in households making within 5% of the median income (or in the range of $80,538-$89,014). There are 197,831 people living in such households, which represents a bit less than 4% of the total metro area population.

The average age in this median household income cohort is 43 years. 48% are non-Hispanic white, 26% non-Hispanic black, 13% Hispanic, and 10% non-Hispanic Asian. 21% work for the government, 66% work outside the government, and 13% are not working, out of the labor force or fall into another category. 69% live in owner-occupied homes, while 31% reside in rented homes.

It's great that the economy in the Washington region is doing well, at least for many people, and that median incomes are high, even if that means housing is expensive too. But reporters, when you write about these income statistics, please leave the references to fancy dinners and pictures of houses with gilded gates out of it.

What I found most striking was the drop in the county's young adult population. According to the Planning Department, Montgomery County has 15% fewer adults between the ages of 15 and 24 than we did in 2000. There are 17% fewer 25-to-34 year olds, along with 20% fewer 35-to-44 year olds.

The first two age groups belong to the Millennials (or Echo Boomers or Generation Y, whichever you prefer). As I've said before, we're now the largest generation in American history, due to being the kids of the Baby Boomers, America's previous largest generation. Yet their ranks in MoCo have swelled over the past 10 years, while my cohort has shrunk.

Why is this?

Some readers didn't agree with my post last June about my newlywed friends who grew up in Montgomery County, then moved elsewhere in the region. A lot of people didn't like my post last week about the difficulty of finding housing in MoCo for Millennials, which now has over 200 comments. But these are connected. Montgomery County is an expensive place to live, and some of us (like my friends) have found that neighboring communities have more jobs, cheaper housing, and more stuff to do.

This is a problem. Montgomery County thrived because of the Baby Boomers, who found life so good here that they never left. (A few of them, it seems, like it a little too much.) But if 30% of the county's population is over 65, as the Planning Department estimates will happen by 2030, we're not going to be able to manage. If we want the county to continue prospering, we have to draw young people.

"What" draws young people is pretty simple: Jobs, reasonably priced housing, short commutes, proximity to shopping and entertainment, and increasingly, neighborhoods where you can walk/bike/take transit instead of driving.

The "how" is more challenging. But we should start going after those solutions now rather than waiting until it's too late.

In 1990, whites made up almost three-fourths of Calverton's roughly 11,000 residents. Though the neighborhood has grown by more than half since then, whites and blacks make up equal shares of its population, at about 39 percent each. The Asian population's been steady, but the Hispanic contingent has tripled to become one-tenth of the community. This graph shows the shifts (numbers may not add up to 100% because Hispanics are counted as an ethnicity, not a race):

Yet as Montgomery County becomes more polyglot, it's not necessarily integrated. Two years ago, my brother graduated from Galway Elementary School in Calverton. Its nearly 800 students are half black, a quarter Hispanic, and just 4.3 percent white.

In a neighborhood where the median household income is $76,000 a year and the average home sells for nearly $400,000, 60 percent of students are on free or reduced lunch. In addition, test scores are generally lower than they are at elementary schools elsewhere in the county.

Signs at Galway Elementary are written in English and Spanish. Photo by Mark Doore, Calverton Citizens Association.

Where are Calverton's white and middle-class residents? Some of have moved to Rockville or Olney, which are generally more affluent and have higher-rated public schools. Those who remained chose to "opt out" of the system, putting their kids in private school. They also take part in other exclusive amenities, like the members-only Calverton Swim Club across the street from Galway. A quick look at the club's website indicates its demographic makeup.

The membership of Calverton Swim Club remains predominantly white, though the neighborhood isn't. Photo by Mark Doore, Calverton Citizens Association.

This isn't necessarily a problem for our family. My parents are very involved in my brother's education and are generally happy with his experience at Galway and now at Briggs Chaney Middle School, which is slightly more diverse. While my family aren't members of the Calverton Swim Club, we can go to the nicer and public Martin Luther King Jr. Pool, which has water slides and a lazy river.

At the same time, it's generally recognized that the United States will cease to be a predominantly-white nation in about thirty years. We're seeing the beginnings of that in Montgomery County. This actually puts us in the catbird seat: If we're going to compete in a global society, we must be able to understand and react to cultural differences. Your kids might be having birthday parties with Salvadorian, Iranian, and Korean kids today, but they're preparing themselves to do business with people from those countries in the future.

Montgomery County has the ability to use its polyglot population as a strength, to create better, unified communities, and draw investment and ideas from around the world. Yet it's frequently thwarted when more fortunate residents try to keep the less privileged out or, as in Calverton, "opt out" of the community altogether.

For years, the Columbia Country Club and the Town of Chevy Chase have fought to keep the Purple Line out of their community. A community group in Silver Spring tried to remove a soccer field in a local park because Hispanic teams from outside the neighborhood used it. And neighbors in Bethesda had a vacant home demolished rather than letting a homeless family live there. These actions may benefit a small minority, but in the end, they hurt everyone.

Montgomery County has long had a reputation for progressive politics due to our affordable housing program and agricultural preserve. As a result, we tend to take diversity for granted, assuming that having Hispanic Heritage Month each October or occasionally eating ethnic food in Wheaton is enough. (Meanwhile, some are afraid to eat in Wheaton at all.) But this isn't enough. In order to fully take advantage of the county's diversity, and to ensure that everyone has a place here, we have to create truly integrated communities.

How can we do this?

We have to work even harder to create an equitable school system, ensuring students in affluent "Green Zone" schools and struggling "Red Zone" schools get the same level of education. Meanwhile, we have to continue investing in older communities like Silver Spring where "Red Zone" schools are located to give people the option of staying rather than moving further out and self-segregating.

We have to create neighborhoods that are accessible to a broad swath of the population, by providing a mix of housing styles and prices. In addition, we have to make it safer and easier to get around by foot, by bike, and by public transit, which benefit all residents, not just those who can afford a car. And we have to make everyone feel welcome here, instead of scapegoating immigrants or teenagers

Most importantly, we have to have the political wherewithal to do these things, rather than capitulate to groups who fight to preserve the status quo.

It's been a long time since Montgomery County was the "perfect suburbia," and it's not always clear what we'll become. Nonetheless, we have the opportunity to become something even greater. It won't be easy, but if we want to ensure the county's continued prosperity, we don't have a choice.

Instead of the typical focus of many sustainability panels on how designing, renovating or refitting greener buildings can bring jobs, panelists instead talked about how economic development itself can contribute to sustainability.

In older industrial cities, policymakers will have to find ways to make those cities more attractive to both attract and retain people. Without public policy actions, most people would otherwise settle in high-growth areas, putting additional strain on already-scarce resources such as water and land.

Neighborhoods in these cities (and elsewhere) also need to become attractive to bring in knowledge workers and help the low-income population. Besides the ethical value of helping low-income people, a large low-income population in a city increases negative perceptions of a region and hurts its global economic competitiveness.

To achieve this, all levels of government will have to think creatively about sustainability planning, given scarce financial resources. Communities will have to find ways to incentivize private actors, both for-profit and nonprofit, and link their self-interests and the interests of the whole community.

While places are important, making sustainable places is really about people, and allowing people to do what they need to in a place. Dr. Bostic gave an example of how local government employees find themselves priced out of living in the Southern California community where they worked. He argued that the people will ultimately be what allow a place to succeed.

The other speakers also referenced the importance of the people to the place. Dr. Ross contended that sustainability should be resident-driven, neighborhood-focused, and empowerment-oriented. Ms. Hairston said that demographic changes will produce big economic disparities in the country's metropolitan regions. Referencing his work in local government, Mr. Brophy argued that increasing regulation of federal funds (to decrease corruption, among other reasons) has made it difficult to attract creative people to work on those programs.

Mr. Pendall said policymakers need to recognize that there are different policy impacts and priorities for different populations. With regard to environmental concerns, the focus should be on the effect of larger housing lot sizes and vehicle miles traveled rather than only on increasing density and access to public transportation. Larger lot sizes result in more spread-out housing and other land use patterns, while many low-income families depend on private automobiles to travel to jobs, schools, or other opportunities outside their communities or inaccessible by public transportation.

Speakers referenced several HUD and nonprofit programs they felt were making a difference in communities, including Strong Cities, Strong Communities. But they also listed other challenges confronting urban regions, especially in light of the acceleration of processes and globalization. These problems include managing vacant urban land for rational use and dealing with the large number of single-family suburban homes that will be coming into the housing market in the near future as baby boomers move to different homes in retirement.

Economic development can provide a powerful tool for helping communities grow within their means. And the developments and other assets communities create today will likely be with them far into the future.