Posts about Malls

The comments generally fell into 2 categories: questions about the definitions, and malls that should be added to the map.

Definitions

For the purposes of this map, an "enclosed mall" is defined as a shopping center in which there is a row of small retail shops that are primarily accessed by pedestrians via an interior walkway. The two key components are small shops and an interior walkway.

Buildings with interior spaces that consist primarily of large format retailers (such as the Pentagon Centre or DCUSA) are not malls for this purpose. Neither are spaces that are primarily food courts. Basically, to qualify as a mall for this map, a shopping center should have a space that looks generally like this.

Additions and subtractions

This second draft includes the following malls that were left out of the first: La Promenade (DC), Waterside (DC), Free State (Bowie), Livingston (Ft Washington), Chevy Chase Pavilion (DC), National Place (DC), Beacon Mall (Mount Vernon), 2000 Pennsylvania Ave (DC), New Carrollton Mall (New Carrollton), Centre at Forestville (Forestville), Rolling Valley Mall (Burke).

The only mall I subtracted from the original map was Virginia Square, which had a department store but apparently never an enclosed row of smaller shops.

I also removed references to "thriving" and "surviving" from the table in the legend, since that was subjective and unclear.

Notable omissions

Shopping centers that could be considered malls but that don't meet the definition I used for this map include DCUSA, Old Post Office Pavilion, Gallery Place, Pentagon Centre, and the terminals at National and Dulles airports. The airports might technically meet the definition, but they're obviously a different animal.

Cross-posted at BeyondDC.

The 31 malls on the map range from small local ones like Fair City in Fairfax, to gargantuan super-regional ones like Tysons Corner. The only requirement to be on the map is that malls contain a common interior hallway lined with several shops.

Some, like Pentagon City, are chugging along as healthily as ever. Others, like Seven Corners Center, have been gone for years. Overall, more than 40% of the dots are red.

The reasons malls have closed vary as much as the malls themselves. Some closed because they were housed in cheap buildings that simply reached the end of their intended lifespans, while others couldn't compete with the mixed-use town center developments that have become common in recent years.

Geography seems to be unimportant in whether a mall lives or dies. Red dots permeate all corners of the map, regardless of the wealth of the jurisdiction.

One thing that does seem to make a difference is size. Larger malls that draw from a wider area generally seem more likely to thrive than smaller ones. As the years go by and even more green dots turn to red, it's likely the last hold outs will be the biggest and most famous.

Is this map comprehensive? Did I miss any malls? Let me know in the comments.

Cross-posted at BeyondDC.

The Laurel Macy's has managed to remain open for years despite much of its host mall being shuttered. That store would likely have closed years ago if it wasn't making money, especially in the wake of the Great Recession.

Similarly, if it had not been profitable the White Flint Bloomingdale's would have closed in 2007 when another location of the luxury retailer opened a mere 3 Metro stations away.

Within the Favored Quarter, the most economically competitive and healthy part of our region, only the largest and most dynamic enclosed malls are continuing to thrive. The rest are slowly dying.

In Maryland, Montgomery Mall is the most vibrant, while in Virginia the Tysons cluster reigns supreme.

When the White Flint redevelopment plan was approved in 2010, it provided the owners of White Flint Mall the opportunity to earn a healthier profit by giving the market more of what it wants: walkable urbanism.

Elsewhere in the region the malls are doing as bad or worse. Most have either closed or are in the process of being converted to walkable town centers.

Arlington has had success turning the area around its two enclosed malls into mixed-use towns, first at Ballston and now at Pentagon City, where the process is still under way.

In Fairfax, Springfield Mall is slated for redevelopment, and Fair Oaks Mall is actively considering a mixed-use future.

In Prince George's County, the area around the Mall at Prince George's (formerly Prince George's Plaza) has been undergoing a process similar to Pentagon City. At Bowie Town Center, County officials are looking at adding more entertainment and housing options.

Meanwhile, urban shopping areas that I mentioned three years ago have increased in prominence:

In the District of Columbia, there are four shopping districts that support clusters of national retail chains that are usually mall-based: Downtown (Old Downtown clustered around Metro Center), Connecticut Avenue between Farragut Square and Dupont Circle, Friendship Heights, and Georgetown. Columbia Heights is emerging and has a different mix of retailers.

Silver Spring's retail is more vibrant than ever. The space vacated by Borders was quickly filled by Smart Toys. Bethesda and Clarendon are continually adding to their mixture of chains and smaller upscale retailers. Wheaton is a work in progress.

Even outside the Beltway, urbanism is catching on. Rockville Town Square and Gaithersburg's Washingtonian Center are growing, and National Harbor is setting the standard for Prince George's County. Two decades ago, all those developments likely would have been enclosed malls.

While purely car-dependent malls aren't going to go completely extinct, they are becoming far more rare. In the future, it is likely the only enclosed malls that remain will be the largest super-regional "winners" inside the Favored Quarter. Meanwhile, no new malls are planned.

As the 21st Century continues, both living and dead mall sites will be either be completely redeveloped or will evolve into mixed-use walkable urban places. Retailers will continue clustering at transit-oriented, walkable urban locations, both downtown and at new suburban "uptowns."

At Monday night's University Park town council meeting, concerns were aired that the development would generate excessive storm water run-off, poor access for public services, and much, much more traffic. At the same time, the enterprise's economic prospects were questioned: some characterized the design as "another strip mall" where no one could live , shop, or navigate the traffic even if they wished.

Current designs would worsen the traffic problem by only allowing cars to flow on and off of the two arterials, blocking access to neighborhood streets.

The developers, who put up a glossy website using Whole Foods' cachet to promote the project, are nevertheless deliberately vague about their plans while they seek initial rezoning of the property. There is still some doubt as to the soundness of Cafritz' business prospects, and about the company's ability to produce a successful design that would draw customers and residents.

There have certainly been false starts around large scale projects in the area: Wells Fargo recently repossessed the nearby University Town Center, to name one example. But as census data suggests, the DC Metro area is growing relentlessly, and the Route 1 corridor from Mt. Rainier through Hyattsville, Riverdale Park and College Park, will be an important axis of future growth. This will become an increasingly urban area.

Smart growth demands that property around the principal arteries be rezoned from single family to mixed use, especially in areas well-served by mass transit. The 80s Metrobuses provide frequent service along Route 1, Metro's Green Line is nearby, and proposed service expansions would make MARC's Camden Line a more potent transit corridor. As the council members recognized, change is coming, and the real challenge before them is to shape that change in a way that enhances the quality of life rather than worsening congestion.

The town wants the county and state to help fund a $15 million bridge over the railroad for rear access to the property from Lafayette Avenue. It will be challenging to get that kind of commitment in this fiscal climate, but it would be one of the best uses of Council members' political capital.

The Council's discussion accentuated every possible risk, leading a casual observer to think that the project faces a significant political hurdle. Nevertheless, the majority of the Council is confident that the development will succeed, voting to provide $5,000 for a market analysis of its impact, which, as Mayor John Tabori noted, would only measure the "negative externalities" and not the positive ones that could come from a less car-oriented design.

Strangely, there was no mention of jobs, which is a top concern of many voters, particularly in Prince George's. Also lacking was discussion of the value to consumers of new retail opportunities, or of increased property values, or of new sales tax revenues for a town and county overly dependent on property taxes to make up its $2.5 billion annual budget (although it should be noted that Maryland's sales tax exempts unprepared food sales).

Councilmember Jacqueline Bradley Chacon (Ward 7) took a larger view in a letter to her colleagues, noting that encouraging and meeting the needs of consumers with educated tastes would allow for more diversity and more retail outlets, and attract more like-minded residents. Prince George's County is obviously not overflowing with these kinds of choices. Retail sales and sales taxes leak out of the county, and with those retail sales go badly needed jobs.

It is important to understand and work to mitigate the risks of such a major development, but one must also step back and take in a larger view that balances those risks with a sense of the rewards. Unfortunately, the beneficiaries of those rewards tend not to go to council meetings.

They want to renovate the plaza at the corner of Colesville Road and Fenton Street, the mall's most visible entrance but perhaps also its most foreboding. Signs for anchor stores Marshalls and Burlington Coat Factory are plastered several stories up, making them hard to see for people on foot or driving past. A large sculptural fountain, lined with spiky strips to discourage loitering, blocks the door.

A plan of the new plaza.

The developer's proposal would take out the fountain and repave the entire plaza, making it easier for people to circulate and open up sight lines. This will hopefully discourage loitering and make the space feel safer. A tree that interferes with wheelchair ramps at the crosswalk for Colesville Road will be removed.

And a new metal screen, similar to the ones placed along Ellsworth Drive and Fenton Street in 2005, will wrap around the corner. It'll display large tenant signs, a new sign for the mall itself, and a video screen "that will televise events, ads and information as an aesthetic response to this admittedly commercial enterprise," according to a report filed by Planning staff. The screen will be required to display public information and event calendars every five minutes.

The proposal doesn't address any changes to the restaurants flanking the entrance, Taste of Morocco and a shuttered Ruby Tuesday that was vandalized in the fall of 2008. Both eateries' street-facing windows are either covered up or tinted, and their patio seating - a great way to activate the plaza - is largely unused. Hopefully, renovating the plaza will encourage at least Taste of Morocco to open up to the outside.

The ten-screen movie theatre atop City Place, closed since 2004, could be converted to offices.

The office addition, both within the existing mall and in a nine-story office building on top that was first approved twenty years ago, brings a customer base that could draw new, higher-end retailers to City Place. As recently as last summer, the developers had unsuccessfully courted Park and Planning to occupy the 300,000-square foot tower. But without office tenants willing to take a chance on the mall's potential turnaround, it's likely that nothing could happen at all.

Renderings of the renovated mall and office tower addition, seen from the corner of Fenton and Ellsworth (left) and Colesville Road (right).

In the meantime, there's a possibility that City Place Mall could get a new name. All of the renderings above show new signage at the corner of Colesville and Fenton reading "The Galleria at Silver Spring." As Silver Spring, Singular first suggested in 2006, the name City Place carries with it some serious baggage and could use a new moniker to get disenchanted shoppers interested again.

Of course, it's possible that an even more auto-dependent form could succeed the malls, if such a form even exists. However, the nationwide trend is moving toward faux town-center-like "lifestyle centers." In a "lifestyle center," it's not as big of a jump to add a little housing, remove some surface parking, and maybe add a few offices. It'd be even better to simply redevelop the land into a true walkable urban place.

However, hoping for the wholesale replacement of malls with either of these more walkable forms is unlikely. The fact remains that there is more commercial space than existing demand. We know there was enormous and mostly car-dependent commercial real estate overbuilding during the bubble years. At the time, chain retailers engaged in bidding wars to rent space in a shopping malls and strip mall in the latest piece of sprawl. Even more amazingly, the space was often 80 to 100 miles from the nearest non-retail jobs. Now that euphoria has turned to panic, we're finding the true value of far-flung malls (and exurban McMansions). It's an awful bind.

There is a potential silver lining in the current panic-filled commercial real estate environment. As Mr. Martin mentioned in his piece, those stores have to go somewhere. Many of those stores will want to own or lease their own buildings. Some might try the single use building on the suburban arterial behind acres of parking. But this could be problematic for stores that aren't all-in-one retail big boxes such as Target. After all, who wants to fight traffic while driving to a sprawl-mart that only sells one category of product? Wasn't the all-in-one format one of the most appealing aspects of a suburban shopping mall? More importantly, how many of those mall-based retailers will want to operate in a building that is large enough to be practical in single-use suburban form? Will higher-end boutique-format chain clothing retailers like Banana Republic, Anne Taylor, Express, Guess, Kenneth Cole, etc. be able to operate out of a stand-alone single-story building set back behind acres of parking on the side of some suburban arterial?

If that would work, some of the national higher-end retail brands would already be trying it. But these stores have found success opening stores in walkable urban places. In the District of Columbia, there are four shopping districts that support clusters of national retail chains that are usually mall-based: Downtown (Old Downtown clustered around Metro Center), Connecticut Avenue between Farragut Square and Dupont Circle, Friendship Heights, and Georgetown. Columbia Heights is emerging and has a different mix of retailers. Additionally, some clothing stores that usually locate in malls have opened shop in the Fenton Street development in Silver Spring.

These are successful shopping districts for similar reasons that private car-dependent shopping malls were successful. There is a large cluster of different stores that serve different tastes, but similar socioeconomic demographics. Within a similar distance as spanned by a typical mall, a shopper can reach a similar selection of stores. Furthermore, no shopping mall in the region can offer the extra added bonus of the historic Downtown's flagship stores. The Macy's is five floors tall, bigger than any other Macy's in the region. The H+M offers the chain's entire product line, like their stores in Manhattan. The Zara spans two floors. And so on.

The walkable urban shopping district is a much better arrangement for society. The stores don't all rent from the same landlord. Because they are in a district that has more uses than just retail, one business failure has less effect on all the other stores. There are still restaurants, offices, other stores, and residences to generate foot traffic. It takes years for a mixed-use walkable urban district to decline, rather than months like shopping malls did during 2008.

Retailers will start to encounter similar problems as those who currently prefer to live in a walkable urban place: lack of affordable rents. Because we as a nation have spent 60 years building almost exclusively car-dependent environments, there will be more retailers interested in walkable urban places than vacancies. Rents for retail space in walkable urban places will increase, just like it has for residential space because of its relative scarcity.

One likely outcome is for the chains to just keep bidding up the rents, making it impossible for legacy small businesses to keep their doors open. Alternately, the chains could stop bidding against each other and instead set up shop in another section of the metropolitan region, thus beginning a cycle of revitalization in another walkable urban place. However, we know from practical experience that the latter mode is not how chains operate. If they did, Apple would be in discussions with the Shaw Historic District rather than in Georgetown over the design of their new store. Chains look at income levels, rents and other quantifiable factors from afar when choosing where to set up shop. That's why Apple is opening another store in the Favored Quarter rather than going where the rents are lower. They're a big corporation. Even though they make really cool products, they don't know and don't care about Washingtonian development economics. It's not their business.

Still, it's quite possible that Apple would make even more money in Columbia Heights or Logan Circle or Shaw or College Park because of those locations' cheaper rents and better Metro accessibility. But Apple, located in Cupertino, California, really doesn't know about how Metro access affects local businesses in our region. It's not in their computer model. I'm not specifically criticizing Apple; this is simply how national chains conduct their business.

As a result, all these stores that are getting displaced from dying malls are in for a rough ride. In the big picture, most players in the commercial real estate game have no idea what consumers want right now. Most consumers don't either. However, consumers are voting with their dollars that they don't want the suburban mall anymore. In other words, strap in because we're in for a really rough ride in retail, as our nation enters a period of cognitive dissonance that will mark the historic boundary between the post World War II oil-and-corn-syrup economy, and whatever emerges next. Based on the trends in commercial real estate, a more urban future looks bright on the other side.

Dillard was specifically rebutting rural Republican state legislators' claims that the National Popular Vote would hurt rural areas. The bill, which would give the Electoral College victory in the Presidential election to the person who receives the most votes nationwide as soon as enough states sign on to form a majority, would end the undue emphasis on a small number of states and, since more small rural states vote Republican, possibly hurt Republican electoral efforts, or so some think.

But the merits of NPV aside (I support it), Dillard's choice of words illuminates two very interesting and subtle biases here. First, as I've written before, praise of the agrarian society, or our frontier history, or the fact that American children grow up reading farmhouse stories like Charlotte's Web or Mrs. Frisby and the Rats of NIMH (whose titular rats eschew the mechanized, urban life for a simpler one in a distant valley). Just look at the way commentators are fawning over Mike Huckabee's homespun Midwestern charm.

In the 1950s, many middle-class white Americans saw cities as the past: dirty, crowded, crime-ridden, full of scary dark-skinned immigrants. The shopping mall, The Economist tells us, was "bringing urbanity to the suburbs" by recreating the city center's feel in a suburban setting. But today, malls are dying: none will be built in 2008, and all new malls under development will be of the open-air variety, the Economist article tells us. Ironically, malls are increasingly filled with ethnic minorities who are themselves immigrating to suburbs rather than cities; Indian and Asian immigrant families today vastly prefer, and can afford, suburban homes with good schools and a scale of open space unavailable in their crowded home countries.

Meanwhile, the renaissance of America's cities, and the lasting strength of Europe's, is economic proof that more and more people like living there and that they will continue to grow and thrive. Republicans, and many Democrats, scorn them at their own peril.