Which transit expansion ideas are possible? Which aren’t?

From time to time, WMATA’s planning office takes a look at proposals for transit projects that may seem far-fetched and considers whether they could really happen. The agency recently said it doesn’t foresee Metrorail expansion down to Occoquan or out to Chantilly, but that new BRT routes and MARC and VRE expansion are real possibilities.

Using computer models to predict the area’s population in 2040, WMATA’s Planning and Development Office looked at how the proposals from politicians, interest groups, and others fit— or don’t— into the region and with WMATA’s overall long-term plans for carrying the most people most efficiently and for a reasonable cost. The modeling helps to predict how many people might ride if the idea were came to fruition, where the passengers might come from, and so on.

A recent PlanItMetro post addressed WMATA expansion proposals, tunnel and infill station ideas, and various other plans for bus, streetcar, and light rail in the region.

Evaluating these future proposals now is one way to help guide future planning toward creating useful, cohesive transit for everyone to use.

Metrorail reinforcements are atop the wish list

WMATA’s own proposed 2040 network plan centers around a core system loop, which would add more train tracks around downtown in order to increase service on top of what currently exists. WMATA seems mainly focused on easing crowding at existing stations without expanding the system farther out.

The loop would help solve some the congestion issues like trains backing up into Rosslyn on the Orange/Silver/Blue lines, and help handle growth around Navy Yard to L’Enfant Plaza.

WMATA looked well beyond Metrorail

Obviously, WMATA can’t act like an insular agency; it’s only one of the many forms of transit that exists in the region, all of which should be able to work together. Some of the non-Metro ideas evaluated focused more on creating new bus routes and making better use of existing express and HOV lanes. They include new bus routes, and making better use of existing express/HOV lanes.

WMATA is recommending expanding the region’s commuter bus services, including down to Waldorf, service from Loudoun up Route 15 to Frederick, and from DC out to Annapolis. Projects like these would complement the rail and other bus systems in the area, with some of the routes relieving crowding on rail.

The biggest benefit WMATA’s planners noted is that buses can use existing infrastructure with relatively minor changes and would be much cheaper than building a new rail line. The modeling WMATA used suggested these additions could increase commuter bus ridership in the area up to 24 percent by 2040.

Another proposal that WMATA examined looked at how just increasing walkability around rail stations would impact bus and train ridership. This would be similar to the work Fairfax County is doing to turn Tysons into an area more hospitable to walking, especially around the new Silver Line stations.

Better walking paths and sidewalks within a mile of Metro stations could increase ridership by over 200,000 people per day (11%) by 2040, and increase bus ridership by 18%. The planning office noted that core rail capacity would need to increase due to the number of new riders by doing this.

Not all of the proposals are doable

Some of the ideas evaluated are a bit more out there, like the 21-mile new Brown Line. Here, the planning department considered a subway line that would start at Friendship Heights, cut through downtown DC via Georgetown, then head up to Silver Spring between the existing Green and Red lines, and continue on to White Oak:

WMATA’s planners decided not to recommend this one for further study for a number of reasons. They found that the line wouldn’t significantly help to cut down existing crowding on the other lines, nor bring down congestion at the big transfer stations. Also, the office estimated that this would bring in up to around 100,000 daily riders by 2040, but only 55,000 of those would be new to Metrorail; 40,000 would be taken away from bus services, making it hard to justify the line.

While the WMATA document doesn’t mention it, this proposal also would have incredibly slim chances of ever being built just for cost alone. The amount of track, both aboveground and tunneled, plus the hundreds of rail cars needed to support the 21-mile line would be immense.

The planning office also looked at the idea of a Beltway line following 495 around DC (and also rejected it):

This proposal was estimated to serve 115,000 riders per day (1,700 per mile) by 2040, below their ridership recommendations for building a new line, and would only add 25,000 new transit riders (the rest would be stolen from other public transit options).

These proposals and many, many more can be found at the PlanItMetro blog. Which ones are your favorite?